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We wish to estimate conditional density using Gaussian Mixture Regression model with logistic weights and means depending on the covariate. We aim at selecting the number of components of this model as well as the other parameters by a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-04-10 Lucie Montuelle , Erwan Le Pennec , Serge Cohen

Metocean extremes often vary systematically with covariates such as direction and season. In this work, we present non-stationary models for the size and rate of occurrence of peaks over threshold of metocean variables with respect to one-…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-01-12 Anna Maria Barlow , Ed Mackay , Emma Eastoe , Philip Jonathan

Risk assessment for extreme events requires accurate estimation of high quantiles that go beyond the range of historical observations. When the risk depends on the values of observed predictors, regression techniques are used to interpolate…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-11-14 Olivier C. Pasche , Sebastian Engelke

Quantile regression is a powerful tool for detecting exposure-outcome associations given covariates across different parts of the outcome's distribution, but has two major limitations when the aim is to infer the effect of an exposure.…

We show that density models describing multiple observables with (i) hard boundaries and (ii) dependence on external parameters may be created using an auto-regressive Gaussian mixture model. The model is designed to capture how observable…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2022-02-01 Stephen B. Menary , Darren D. Price

In this manuscript, we use meteorological information in Galicia (Spain) to propose a novel approach to predict the incidence of influenza. Our approach extends the GLS methods in the multivariate framework to functional regression models…

This paper develops computationally feasible methods for estimating random effects models in the context of regression modelling of multiple independent time series of discrete valued counts in which there is serial dependence. Given…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-06-10 W. T. M. Dunsmuir , C. McKendry , R. T. Dean

Recent developments in extreme value statistics have established the so-called geometric approach as a powerful modelling tool for multivariate extremes. We tailor these methods to the case of spatial modelling and examine their efficacy at…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-20 Lydia Kakampakou , Jennifer L. Wadsworth

Spatial modelling of extreme values allows studying the risk of joint occurrence of extreme events at different locations and is of significant interest in climatic and other environmental sciences. A popular class of dependence models for…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-11 Lorenzo Dell'Oro , Carlo Gaetan , Thomas Opitz

We consider regularly varying random vectors. Our goal is to estimate in a non-parametric way some characteristics related to conditioning on an extreme event, like the tail dependence coefficient. We introduce a quasi-spectral…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-02-26 Rafał Kulik , Zhigang Tong

This article is dedicated to the estimation of the regression function when the explanatory variable is a weakly dependent process whose correlation coefficient exhibits exponential decay and has a known bounded density function. The…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-07-17 Karine Bertin , Lisandro Fermin , Miguel Padrino

In a wide variety of situations, anomalies in the behaviour of a complex system, whose health is monitored through the observation of a random vector X = (X1,. .. , X d) valued in R d , correspond to the simultaneous occurrence of extreme…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-07-18 Maël Chiapino , Stéphan Clémençon , Vincent Feuillard , Anne Sabourin

One of the main topics of extreme value analysis is to estimate the extreme value index, an important parameter that controls the tail behavior of the distribution. In many cases, estimating the extreme value index of the target variable…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-22 Takuma Yoshida , Yuta Umezu

Extreme weather events are widely studied in fields such as agriculture, ecology, and meteorology. The spatio-temporal co-occurrence of extreme events can strengthen or weaken under changing climate conditions. In this paper, we propose a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-12-09 Xiaoyu Ma , Likun Zhang , Christopher K. Wikle

We extend the varying coefficient functional linear model to the nonlinear model and propose a varying coefficient functional additive model. The proposed method can represent the relationship between functional predictors and a scalar…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-05-27 Hidetoshi Matsui

Extreme values geostatistics make it possible to model the asymptotic behaviors of random phenomena which depends on space or time parameters. In this paper, we propose new models of the extremal coefficient within a spatial stationary…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-07-05 Ouoba Fabrice , Diakarya Barro , Hay Yoba Talkibing

This paper develops a theoretical framework for Extreme Partial Least Squares (EPLS) dimension reduction in the presence of missing data and weak temporal dependence. Building upon the recent EPLS methodology for modeling extremal…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-17 Stéphane Girard , Cambyse Pakzad

We propose new parametric frameworks of regression analysis with the conditional mode of a bounded response as the focal point of interest. Covariate effects estimation and prediction based on the maximum likelihood method under two new…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-06-22 Haiming Zhou , Xianzheng Huang

Quantifying changes in the probability and magnitude of extreme flooding events is key to mitigating their impacts. While hydrodynamic data are inherently spatially dependent, traditional spatial models such as Gaussian processes are poorly…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-05-06 Reetam Majumder , Brian J. Reich , Benjamin A. Shaby

A novel functional additive model is proposed which is uniquely modified and constrained to model nonlinear interactions between a treatment indicator and a potentially large number of functional and/or scalar pretreatment covariates. The…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-01-26 Hyung Park , Eva Petkova , Thaddeus Tarpey , R. Todd Ogden
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