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This paper introduces FlexCodeTS, a new conditional density estimator for time series. FlexCodeTS is a flexible nonparametric conditional density estimator, which can be based on an arbitrary regression method. It is shown that FlexCodeTS…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-01-25 Gustavo Grivol , Rafael Izbicki , Alex A. Okuno , Rafael B. Stern

Conditional density estimation (CDE) goes beyond regression by modeling the full conditional distribution, providing a richer understanding of the data than just the conditional mean in regression. This makes CDE particularly useful in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-16 Lincen Yang , Matthijs van Leeuwen

In some applications (e.g., in cosmology and economics), the regression E[Z|x] is not adequate to represent the association between a predictor x and a response Z because of multi-modality and asymmetry of f(z|x); using the full density…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-11-01 Rafael Izbicki , Ann B. Lee

Conditional density estimation generalizes regression by modeling a full density f(yjx) rather than only the expected value E(yjx). This is important for many tasks, including handling multi-modality and generating prediction intervals.…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-06-26 Michael P. Holmes , Alexander G. Gray , Charles Lee Isbell

Density regression provides a flexible strategy for modeling the distribution of a response variable $Y$ given predictors $\mathbf{X}=(X_1,\ldots,X_p)$ by letting that the conditional density of $Y$ given $\mathbf{X}$ as a completely…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-01-07 Weining Shen , Subhashis Ghosal

We propose a way of transforming the problem of conditional density estimation into a single nonparametric regression task via the introduction of auxiliary samples. This allows leveraging regression methods that work well in high…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-11-25 Alexander G. Reisach , Olivier Collier , Alex Luedtke , Antoine Chambaz

The inference of conditional distributions is a fundamental problem in statistics, essential for prediction, uncertainty quantification, and probabilistic modeling. A wide range of methodologies have been developed for this task. This…

This paper proposes a new method for estimating high-dimensional binary choice models. We consider a semiparametric model that places no distributional assumptions on the error term, allows for heteroskedastic errors, and permits endogenous…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-07-15 Fu Ouyang , Thomas Tao Yang

It is now practically the norm for data to be very high dimensional in areas such as genetics, machine vision, image analysis and many others. When analyzing such data, parametric models are often too inflexible while nonparametric…

Methodology · Statistics 2011-05-31 Abhishek Bhattacharya , Garritt Page , David Dunson

In this paper, we consider the problem of estimating a conditional density in moderately large dimensions. Much more informative than regression functions, conditional densities are of main interest in recent methods, particularly in the…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-01-22 Minh-Lien Jeanne Nguyen

Conditional density estimation (CDE) is the task of estimating the probability of an event conditioned on some inputs. A neural network (NN) can also be used to compute the output distribution for continuous-domain, which can be viewed as…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-12-30 Bing Chen , Mazharul Islam , Jisuo Gao , Lin Wang

Regression aims at estimating the conditional mean of output given input. However, regression is not informative enough if the conditional density is multimodal, heteroscedastic, and asymmetric. In such a case, estimating the conditional…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2014-04-29 Voot Tangkaratt , Ning Xie , Masashi Sugiyama

Conditional density estimation (CDE) models can be useful for many statistical applications, especially because the full conditional density is estimated instead of traditional regression point estimates, revealing more information about…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-07-12 Alex Akira Okuno , Felipe Maia Polo

Conditional density estimation (CDE) - recovering the full conditional distribution of a response given tabular covariates - is essential in settings with heteroscedasticity, multimodality, or asymmetric uncertainty. Recent tabular…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-30 Rafael Izbicki , Pedro L. C. Rodrigues

The problem of nonparametric estimation of the conditional density of a response, given a vector of explanatory variables, is classical and of prominent importance in many prediction problems since the conditional density provides a more…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-04-21 Catia Scricciolo

We propose a novel and computationally efficient approach for nonparametric conditional density estimation in high-dimensional settings that achieves dimension reduction without imposing restrictive distributional or functional form…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-10-14 Jianhua Mei , Fu Ouyang , Thomas T. Yang

The conditional density characterizes the distribution of a response variable $y$ given other predictor $x$, and plays a key role in many statistical tasks, including classification and outlier detection. Although there has been abundant…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-08 Cheng Zeng , George Michailidis , Hitoshi Iyatomi , Leo L Duan

We propose a robust inferential procedure for assessing uncertainties of parameter estimation in high-dimensional linear models, where the dimension $p$ can grow exponentially fast with the sample size $n$. Our method combines the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-03-19 Tianqi Zhao , Mladen Kolar , Han Liu

Diffusion models have gained attention for their ability to represent complex distributions and incorporate uncertainty, making them ideal for robust predictions in the presence of noisy or incomplete data. In this study, we develop and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-05 Yilin Zhuang , Sibo Cheng , Karthik Duraisamy

This thesis deals with the nonparametric estimation of density f of the regression error term E of the model Y=m(X)+E, assuming its independence with the covariate X. The difficulty linked to this study is the fact that the regression error…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2011-08-10 Rawane Samb
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