Related papers: Ensemble Kalman methods for high-dimensional hiera…
Real-time nonlinear Bayesian filtering algorithms are overwhelmed by data volume, velocity and increasing complexity of computational models. In this paper, we propose a novel ensemble based nonlinear Bayesian filtering approach which only…
This paper presents a new filter for state-space models based on Bellman's dynamic-programming principle, allowing for nonlinearity, non-Gaussianity and degeneracy in the observation and/or state-transition equations. The resulting Bellman…
Kalman filtering and smoothing are the foundational mechanisms for efficient inference in Gauss-Markov models. However, their time and memory complexities scale prohibitively with the size of the state space. This is particularly…
The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is a popular technique for performing inference in state-space models (SSMs), particularly when the dynamic process is high-dimensional. Unlike reweighting methods such as sequential Monte Carlo (SMC, i.e.…
Ensemble Kalman methods are widely used for state estimation in the geophysical sciences. Their success stems from the fact that they take an underlying (possibly noisy) dynamical system as a black box to provide a systematic,…
We consider filtering in high-dimensional non-Gaussian state-space models with intractable transition kernels, nonlinear and possibly chaotic dynamics, and sparse observations in space and time. We propose a novel filtering methodology that…
Smoothing is a specialized form of Bayesian inference for state-space models that characterizes the posterior distribution of a collection of states given an associated sequence of observations. Ramgraber et al. (2023) proposes a general…
State-space smoothing has found many applications in science and engineering. Under linear and Gaussian assumptions, smoothed estimates can be obtained using efficient recursions, for example Rauch-Tung-Striebel and Mayne-Fraser algorithms.…
Smoothers are algorithms for Bayesian time series re-analysis. Most operational smoothers rely either on affine Kalman-type transformations or on sequential importance sampling. These strategies occupy opposite ends of a spectrum that…
Filtering is concerned with online estimation of the state of a dynamical system from partial and noisy observations. In applications where the state of the system is high dimensional, ensemble Kalman filters are often the method of choice.…
This paper proposes new methodology for sequential state and parameter estimation within the ensemble Kalman filter. The method is fully Bayesian and propagates the joint posterior density of states and parameters over time. In order to…
Ensemble Kalman methods constitute an increasingly important tool in both state and parameter estimation problems. Their popularity stems from the derivative-free nature of the methodology which may be readily applied when computer code is…
We formulate approximate Bayesian inference in non-conjugate temporal and spatio-temporal Gaussian process models as a simple parameter update rule applied during Kalman smoothing. This viewpoint encompasses most inference schemes,…
This paper provides a unified perspective of iterative ensemble Kalman methods, a family of derivative-free algorithms for parameter reconstruction and other related tasks. We identify, compare and develop three subfamilies of ensemble…
Nonlinear/non-Gaussian filtering has broad applications in many areas of life sciences where either the dynamic is nonlinear and/or the probability density function of uncertain state is non-Gaussian. In such problems, the accuracy of the…
We consider the Ensemble Kalman Inversion which has been recently introduced as an efficient, gradient-free optimisation method to estimate unknown parameters in an inverse setting. In the case of large data sets, the Ensemble Kalman…
The analysis of high-dimensional dynamical systems generally requires the integration of simulation data with experimental measurements. Experimental data often has substantial amounts of measurement noise that compromises the ability to…
State-space models are successfully used in many areas of science, engineering and economics to model time series and dynamical systems. We present a fully Bayesian approach to inference \emph{and learning} (i.e. state estimation and system…
A method for sequential Bayesian inference of the static parameters of a dynamic state space model is proposed. The method is based on the observation that many dynamic state space models have a relatively small number of static parameters…
In this paper, we introduce a new, local formulation of the ensemble Kalman Filter approach for atmospheric data assimilation. Our scheme is based on the hypothesis that, when the Earth's surface is divided up into local regions of moderate…