Related papers: Structural price model for electricity coupled mar…
Adopting a zonal structure of electricity market requires specification of zones' borders. One of the approaches to identify zones is based on clustering of Locational Marginal Prices (LMP). The purpose of the paper is twofold: (i) we…
Pricing composite and quanto contracts requires a joint model of both the underlying asset and the exchange rate. In this contribution, we explore the potential of local-correlation models to address the challenges of calibrating synthetic…
Forecasting electricity prices is a challenging task and an active area of research since the 1990s and the deregulation of the traditionally monopolistic and government-controlled power sectors. Although it aims at predicting both spot and…
In this article, a multiple split method is proposed that enables construction of multidimensional probabilistic forecasts of a selected set of variables. The method uses repeated resampling to estimate uncertainty of simultaneous…
The participation of consumers and producers in demand response programs has increased in smart grids, which reduces investment and operation costs of power systems. Also, with the advent of renewable energy sources, the electricity market…
Trading on the day-ahead electricity markets requires accurate information about the realization of electricity prices and the uncertainty attached to the predictions. Deriving accurate forecasting models presents a difficult task due to…
The price of solar panels is decreasing rapidly and governments around the world are investing in solar power plants to increase the portion of solar energy in the smart grid. The price of electricity produced by solar power plants is much…
A coordinated trading process is proposed as a design for an electricity market with significant uncertainty, perhaps from renewables. In this process, groups of agents propose to the system operator (SO) a contingent buy and sell trade…
We propose a dynamical model of price formation on a spatial market where sellers and buyers are placed on the nodes of a graph, and the distribution of the buyers depends on the positions and prices of the sellers. We find that, depending…
Reliability Options are capacity remuneration mechanisms aimed at enhancing security of supply in electricity systems. They can be framed as call options on electricity sold by power producers to System Operators. This paper provides a…
Due to major shifts in European energy supply, a structural change can be observed in Austrian electricity spot price data starting from the second quarter of the year 2021 onward. In this work we study the performance of two different…
Frequency dynamics in power systems reflect active power imbalance in real time, thereby providing an instantaneous signal to inform electricity pricing. However, existing real-time markets operate on much slower timescales and fail to…
In this paper we propose a new method for probabilistic forecasting of electricity prices. It is based on averaging point forecasts from different models combined with expectile regression. We show that deriving the predicted distribution…
The new technologies emerging in the energy sector pose new requirements for both the regulation and operation of the electricity grid. Revised tariff structures and the introduction of local markets are two approaches that could tackle the…
In this paper, a multivariate constrained robust M-regression (MCRM) method is developed to estimate shaping coefficients for electricity forward prices. An important benefit of the new method is that model arbitrage can be ruled out at an…
Modern market management systems continue to evolve due to the intentions to improve system security and reliability. This evolvement has been leading to a transition of market auction models from a deterministic structure with…
Recent studies concerning the point electricity price forecasting have shown evidence that the hourly German Intraday Continuous Market is weak-form efficient. Therefore, we take a novel, advanced approach to the problem. A probabilistic…
Some consumers, particularly households, are unwilling to face volatile electricity prices, and they can perceive as unfair price differentiation in the same local area. For these reasons, nodal prices in distribution networks are rarely…
The United States' power market is featured by the lack of judicial power at the federal level. The market thus provides a unique testing environment for the market organization structure. At the same time, the econometric modeling and…
Electric power generation, transmission, and distribution systems are attracting a large amount of interest from researchers with the development of the smart grid technologies. A smart grid aims at effective control and conditioning of the…