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This paper characterizes the impact of covariate serial dependence on the non-asymptotic estimation error bound of penalized regressions (PRs). Focusing on the direct relationship between the degree of cross-correlation between covariates…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-02-14 Simone Tonini , Francesca Chiaromonte , Alessandro Giovannelli

Bayesian learning using Gaussian processes provides a foundational framework for making decisions in a manner that balances what is known with what could be learned by gathering data. In this dissertation, we develop techniques for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-04-29 Alexander Terenin

Functional Analysis of Variance (FANOVA) from Hilbert-valued correlated data with spatial rectangular or circular supports is analyzed, when Dirichlet conditions are assumed on the boundary. Specifically, a Hilbert-valued fixed effect model…

Applications · Statistics 2018-09-05 J. Álvarez-Liébana , M. D. Ruiz-Medina

We develop a generalization of correlated trend-cycle decompositions that avoids prior assumptions about the long-run dynamic characteristics by modelling the permanent component as a fractionally integrated process and incorporating a…

Econometrics · Economics 2020-05-26 Tobias Hartl , Rolf Tschernig , Enzo Weber

Many natural phenomena exhibit a stochastic nature that one attempts at modeling by using stochastic processes of different types. In this context, often one is interested in investigating the memory properties of the natural phenomenon at…

Computational Physics · Physics 2023-05-09 Salvatore Miccichè

Gaussian Process (GP) models provide a flexible framework for prediction and uncertainty quantification. For most covariance functions, however, exact GP prediction with $n$ points scales as $\mathcal{O}(n^3)$, making it prohibitively…

Computation · Statistics 2026-05-29 Samanyu Arora , Christopher J. Geoga

We consider autocovariance operators of a stationary stochastic process on a Polish space that is embedded into a reproducing kernel Hilbert space. We investigate how empirical estimates of these operators converge along realizations of the…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-08-08 Mattes Mollenhauer , Stefan Klus , Christof Schütte , Péter Koltai

Learning in Gaussian Process models occurs through the adaptation of hyperparameters of the mean and the covariance function. The classical approach entails maximizing the marginal likelihood yielding fixed point estimates (an approach…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-04-07 Vidhi Lalchand , Carl Edward Rasmussen

Gaussian processes models are widely adopted for nonparameteric/semi-parametric modeling. Identifiability issues occur when the mean model contains polynomials with unknown coefficients. Though resulting prediction is unaffected, this leads…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-11-02 Matthew Plumlee , V. Roshan Joseph

This work derives new results on strong consistent estimation and prediction for autoregressive processes of order 1 in a separable Banach space B. The consistency results are obtained for the component-wise estimator of the autocorrelation…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-09-05 MD Ruiz-Medina , J. Alvarez-Liebana

The statistical dependencies which independent component analysis (ICA) cannot remove often provide rich information beyond the linear independent components. It would thus be very useful to estimate the dependency structure from data.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-07-28 Hiroaki Sasaki , Michael U. Gutmann , Hayaru Shouno , Aapo Hyvärinen

Detecting early warning signals in climatic time series is essential for anticipating critical transitions and tipping points. Common statistical indicators include increased variance and lag-one autocorrelation prior to bifurcation points.…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-11 Sigrunn H. Sørbye , Eirik Myrvoll-Nilsen , Håvard Rue

This research proposes a flexible Bayesian extension of the composite Gaussian process (CGP) model of Ba and Joseph (2012) for predicting (stationary or) non-stationary $y(\mathbf{x})$. The CGP generalizes the regression plus stationary…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-06-27 Casey B. Davis , Christopher M. Hans , Thomas J. Santner

Large-scale Gaussian process inference has long faced practical challenges due to time and space complexity that is superlinear in dataset size. While sparse variational Gaussian process models are capable of learning from large-scale data,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-01-23 Ching-An Cheng , Byron Boots

In this paper, a quantum algorithm based on gaussian process regression model is proposed. The proposed quantum algorithm consists of three sub-algorithms. One is the first quantum subalgorithm to efficiently generate mean predictor. The…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2022-07-20 Menghan Chen , Gongde Guo , Song Lin , Jing Li

Both Hawkes processes and autoregressive processes rely on linear functionals of their past, while modeling different types of data. Since datasets arising from observations of the same phenomenon may be heterogeneous and sampled at…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-05-28 Théo Leblanc

This paper introduces a new sparse spatio-temporal structured Gaussian process regression framework for online and offline Bayesian inference. This is the first framework that gives a time-evolving representation of the interdependencies…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-08-01 Danil Kuzin , Olga Isupova , Lyudmila Mihaylova

We consider a complex-valued linear mixture model, under discrete weakly stationary processes. We recover latent components of interest, which have undergone a linear mixing. We study asymptotic properties of a classical unmixing estimator,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-03-12 Niko Lietzén , Lauri Viitasaari , Pauliina Ilmonen

Gaussian processes are the model of choice in Bayesian optimization and active learning. Yet, they are highly dependent on cleverly chosen hyperparameters to reach their full potential, and little effort is devoted to finding good…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-16 Carl Hvarfner , Erik Hellsten , Frank Hutter , Luigi Nardi

Using the concept of self-decomposable subordinators introduced in Gardini et al. [11], we build a new bivariate Normal Inverse Gaussian process that can capture stochastic delays. In addition, we also develop a novel path simulation scheme…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2020-11-10 Matteo Gardini , Piergiacomo Sabino , Emanuela Sasso
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