Related papers: Distributions-oriented wind forecast verification …
Current statistical post-processing methods for probabilistic weather forecasting are not capable of using full spatial patterns from the numerical weather prediction (NWP) model. In this paper we incorporate spatial wind speed information…
Precipitation in complex terrain is governed by orographic processes operating at scales of a few kilometers, yet climate models typically run at resolutions of 50--100~km where this topographic detail is absent. Dynamical downscaling with…
Forecasting tasks using large datasets gathering thousands of heterogeneous time series is a crucial statistical problem in numerous sectors. The main challenge is to model a rich variety of time series, leverage any available external…
All numerical weather prediction models used for the wind industry need to produce their forecasts starting from the main synoptic hours 00, 06, 12, and 18 UTC, once the analysis becomes available. The six-hour latency time between two…
Near-surface atmospheric conditions can differ sharply over tens to hundreds of meters due to land cover and topography, yet this variability is absent from current weather analyses and forecasts. It is unclear whether such meter-scale…
For the purpose of Monte Carlo scenario generation, we propose a graphical model for the joint distribution of wind power and electricity demand in a given region. To conform with the practice in the electric power industry, we assume that…
The atmosphere is chaotic. This fundamental property of the climate system makes forecasting weather incredibly challenging: it's impossible to expect weather models to ever provide perfect predictions of the Earth system beyond timescales…
Decision support systems are essential for maintaining grid stability in low-carbon power systems, such as wind power plants, by providing real-time alerts to control room operators regarding potential events, including Wind Power Ramp…
The increasing sophistication of wind turbine design and control generates a need for high-quality data. Therefore, the relatively limited set of measured wind data may be extended with computer-generated surrogate data, e.g. to make…
The problem of forecasting weather has been scientifically studied for centuries due to its high impact on human lives, transportation, food production and energy management, among others. Current operational forecasting models are based on…
Forecasts by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF; EC for short) can provide a basis for the establishment of maritime-disaster warning systems, but they contain some systematic biases.The fifth-generation EC…
The Weather Risk Attribution Forecast (WRAF) is a forecasting tool that uses output from global climate models to make simultaneous attribution statements about whether and how greenhouse gas emissions have contributed to extreme weather…
This paper estimates local tornado risk from records of past events using statistical models. First, a spatial model is fit to the tornado counts aggregated in counties with terms that control for changes in observational practices over…
Accurate wind speed prediction is crucial for designing and selecting sites for offshore wind farms. This paper investigates the effectiveness of various machine learning models in predicting offshore wind power for a site near the Gulf of…
The share of wind energy in total installed power capacity has grown rapidly in recent years around the world. Producing accurate and reliable forecasts of wind power production, together with a quantification of the uncertainty, is…
Geostationary satellites collect high-resolution weather data comprising a series of images which can be used to estimate wind speed and direction at different altitudes. The Derived Motion Winds (DMW) Algorithm is commonly used to process…
An extreme wind speed estimation method that considers wind hazard climate types is critical for design wind load calculation for building structures affected by mixed climates. However, it is very difficult to obtain wind hazard climate…
As an important clean and renewable kind of energy, wind power plays an important role in coping with energy crisis and environmental pollution. However, the volatility and intermittency of wind speed restrict the development of wind power.…
Recently it was demonstrated how climate data can be utilized to estimate regional wind power densities. In particular it was shown that the quality of the global scale estimate compared well with regional high resolution studies and a link…
Low-fidelity wake models are used for wind farm design and control optimization. To generalize to a wind farm model, individually-modeled wakes are commonly superimposed using approximate superposition models. Wake models parameterize…