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This is an up-to-date introduction to, and overview of, marginal likelihood computation for model selection and hypothesis testing. Computing normalizing constants of probability models (or ratio of constants) is a fundamental issue in many…

Computation · Statistics 2023-02-13 Fernando Llorente , Luca Martino , David Delgado , Javier Lopez-Santiago

Markov random fields area popular model for high-dimensional probability distributions. Over the years, many mathematical, statistical and algorithmic problems on them have been studied. Until recently, the only known algorithms for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-06-01 Linus Hamilton , Frederic Koehler , Ankur Moitra

Performing model selection between Gibbs random fields is a very challenging task. Indeed, due to the Markovian dependence structure, the normalizing constant of the fields cannot be computed using standard analytical or numerical methods.…

Computation · Statistics 2019-09-04 Julien Stoehr , Jean-Michel Marin , Pierre Pudlo

Motivated by problems from neuroimaging in which existing approaches make use of "mass univariate" analysis which neglects spatial structure entirely, but the full joint modelling of all quantities of interest is computationally infeasible,…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-04-19 Denishrouf Thesingarajah , Adam M. Johansen

Scharfstein et al. (2021) developed a sensitivity analysis model for analyzing randomized trials with repeatedly measured binary outcomes that are subject to nonmonotone missingness. Their approach becomes computationally intractable when…

Herein, we introduce and study a new class of discrete random fields designed for quick simulation and covariance inference under inhomogeneous condition. Simulation of these correlated fields can be done in a single pass instead of relying…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-12-05 Biao Wu , Michael A. Kouritzin , Fraser Newton

Herein, the Hidden Markov Model is expanded to allow for Markov chain observations. In particular, the observations are assumed to be a Markov chain whose one step transition probabilities depend upon the hidden Markov chain. An…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-04-18 Michael A. Kouritzin

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is a sampling-based method for estimating features of probability distributions. MCMC methods produce a serially correlated, yet representative, sample from the desired distribution. As such it can be…

Computation · Statistics 2019-12-10 Dootika Vats , Nathan Robertson , James M Flegal , Galin L Jones

We introduce a class of random fields that can be understood as discrete versions of multi-colour polygonal fields built on regular linear tessellations. We focus fir st on consistent polygonal fields, for which we show Markovianity and…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-11-27 M. N. M. van Lieshout

A susceptibility propagation that is constructed by combining a belief propagation and a linear response method is used for approximate computation for Markov random fields. Herein, we formulate a new, improved susceptibility propagation by…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2017-12-04 Muneki Yasuda , Kazuyuki Tanaka

We consider the filtering of continuous-time finite-state hidden Markov models, where the rate and observation matrices depend on unknown time-dependent parameters, for which no prior or stochastic model is available. We quantify and…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-03-17 Andrew L. Allan

We introduce a generalization of the Adaptive Multilevel Splitting algorithm in the discrete time dynamic setting, namely when it is applied to sample rare events associated with paths of Markov chains. By interpreting the algorithm as a…

The present paper has two goals. First to present a natural example of a new class of random fields which are the variable neighborhood random fields. The example we consider is a partially observed nearest neighbor binary Markov random…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-06-03 Marzio Cassandro , Antonio Galves , Eva Loecherbach

When the initial and transition probabilities of a finite Markov chain in discrete time are not well known, we should perform a sensitivity analysis. This is done by considering as basic uncertainty models the so-called credal sets that…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2014-08-12 Gert de Cooman , Filip Hermans , Erik Quaeghebeur

There is a growing need for the ability to analyse interval-valued data. However, existing descriptive frameworks to achieve this ignore the process by which interval-valued data are typically constructed; namely by the aggregation of…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-03-08 Xin Zhang , Boris Beranger , Scott A. Sisson

Likelihood-based methods of statistical inference provide a useful general methodology that is appealing, as a straightforward asymptotic theory can be applied for their implementation. It is important to assess the relationships between…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-03-20 Thomas J. DiCiccio , Todd A. Kuffner , G. Alastair Young , Russell Zaretzki

We consider first the mixed discrete-continuous scheme of observation in multistate models; this is a classical pattern in epidemiology because very often clinical status is assessed at discrete visit times while times of death or other…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2008-12-18 Daniel Commenges , Anne Gégout-Petit

In this paper, we propose a class of efficient, accurate, and general methods for solving state-estimation problems with equality and inequality constraints. The methods are based on recent developments in variable splitting and partially…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-12-02 Rui Gao , Filip Tronarp , Simo Särkkä

This paper is about how we study statistical methods. As an example, it uses the random regressions model, in which the intercept and slope of cluster-specific regression lines are modeled as a bivariate random effect. Maximizing this…

Other Statistics · Statistics 2019-05-22 James S. Hodges

Estimating the transition dynamics of controlled Markov chains is crucial in fields such as time series analysis, reinforcement learning, and system exploration. Traditional non-parametric density estimation methods often assume independent…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-05-21 Imon Banerjee , Vinayak Rao , Harsha Honnappa
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