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We propose a new framework for assessing Granger causality in quantiles in unstable environments, for a fixed quantile or over a continuum of quantile levels. Our proposed test statistics are consistent against fixed alternatives, they have…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-12-09 Alexander Mayer , Dominik Wied , Victor Troster

This article studies the estimation of the causal effect of a time-varying treatment on time-to-an-event or on some other continuously distributed outcome. The paper applies to the situation where treatment is repeatedly adapted to…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2008-06-19 Judith J. Lok

In this letter we discuss use of Granger causality to the analyze systems of coupled circular variables, by modifying a recently proposed method for multivariate analysis of causality. We show the application of the proposed approach on…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2015-05-13 Leonardo Angelini , Mario Pellicoro , Sebastiano Stramaglia

Identifying ``true causality'' is a fundamental challenge in complex systems research. Widely adopted methods, like the Granger causality test, capture statistical dependencies between variables rather than genuine driver-response…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-05-05 Yingzhu Liu , Shengyuan Huang , Zhongkui Li , Xiaoguang Yang , Wenjun Mei

Many real-world processes are trajectories that may be regarded as continuous-time "functional data". Examples include patients' biomarker concentrations, environmental pollutant levels, and prices of stocks. Corresponding advances in data…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-11-30 Jinghao Sun , Forrest W. Crawford

Causality defines the relationship between cause and effect. In multivariate time series field, this notion allows to characterize the links between several time series considering temporal lags. These phenomena are particularly important…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-06-01 Antonin Arsac , Aurore Lomet , Jean-Philippe Poli

Granger-causality in the frequency domain is an emerging tool to analyze the causal relationship between two time series. We propose a bootstrap test on unconditional and conditional Granger-causality spectra, as well as on their…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2021-04-07 Matteo Farné , Angela Montanari

Clustering is an unsupervised learning technique that is useful when working with a large volume of unlabeled data. Complex dynamical systems in real life often entail data streaming from a large number of sources. Although it is desirable…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-05-20 Sin Yong Tan , Homagni Saha , Margarite Jacoby , Gregor P. Henze , Soumik Sarkar

Inferring causal relations from time series measurements is an ill-posed mathematical problem, where typically an infinite number of potential solutions can reproduce the given data. We explore in depth a strategy to disambiguate between…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2020-11-04 George Stepaniants , Bingni W. Brunton , J. Nathan Kutz

Since interactions in neural systems occur across multiple temporal scales, it is likely that information flow will exhibit a multiscale structure, thus requiring a multiscale generalization of classical temporal precedence causality…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2017-07-13 Sebastiano Stramaglia , Iege Bassez , Luca Faes , Daniele Marinazzo

Experiments in many fields of science and engineering yield data in the form of time series. The Fourier and wavelet transform-based nonparametric methods are used widely to study the spectral characteristics of these time series data.…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2009-11-13 Mukeshwar Dhamala , Govindan Rangarajan , Mingzhou Ding

Granger causal modeling is an emerging topic that can uncover Granger causal relationship behind multivariate time series data. In many real-world systems, it is common to encounter a large amount of multivariate time series data collected…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-11 Yunfei Chu , Xiaowei Wang , Jianxin Ma , Kunyang Jia , Jingren Zhou , Hongxia Yang

Temporal point process as the stochastic process on continuous domain of time is commonly used to model the asynchronous event sequence featuring with occurrence timestamps. Thanks to the strong expressivity of deep neural networks, they…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-25 Haitao Lin , Cheng Tan , Lirong Wu , Zhangyang Gao , Zicheng Liu , Stan. Z. Li

Extracting causal connections can advance interpretable AI and machine learning. Granger causality (GC) is a robust statistical method for estimating directed influences (DC) between signals. While GC has been widely applied to analysing…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2024-08-06 Abdoreza Asadpour , KongFatt Wong-Lin

Mendelian randomization is an instrumental variable method that utilizes genetic information to investigate the causal effect of a modifiable exposure on an outcome. In most cases, the exposure changes over time. Understanding the…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-03-11 Haodong Tian , Ashish Patel , Stephen Burgess

The Granger framework is useful for discovering causal relations in time-varying signals. However, most Granger causality (GC) methods are developed for densely sampled timeseries data. A substantially different setting, particularly common…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-19 Minh Nguyen , Gia H. Ngo , Mert R. Sabuncu

Differential Granger causality, that is understanding how Granger causal relations differ between two related time series, is of interest in many scientific applications. Modeling each time series by a vector autoregressive (VAR) model, we…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-09-24 Yue Wang , Jing Ma , Ali Shojaie

Characterising cause-effect relationships in complex systems is fundamental to understanding their underlying mechanisms. Granger causality (GC) remains a widely used computational tool for identifying causal relationships in time series…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-26 S. A. Adedayo

Granger causality method analyzes the time series causalities without building a complex causality graph. However, the traditional Granger causality method assumes that the causalities lie between time series channels and remain constant,…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-06-16 Zhiheng Zhang , Wenbo Hu , Tian Tian , Jun Zhu

This report reviews the conceptual and theoretical links between Granger causality and directed information theory. We begin with a short historical tour of Granger causality, concentrating on its closeness to information theory. The…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2015-06-12 Pierre-Olivier Amblard , Olivier J. J. Michel