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Recently, a novel method for developing filtering algorithms, based on the interconnection of two Bayesian filters and called double Bayesian filtering, has been proposed. In this manuscript we show that the same conceptual approach can be…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-10-23 Pasquale Di Viesti , Giorgio M. Vitetta , Emilio Sirignano

This paper presents a new filter for state-space models based on Bellman's dynamic-programming principle, allowing for nonlinearity, non-Gaussianity and degeneracy in the observation and/or state-transition equations. The resulting Bellman…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-02-18 Rutger-Jan Lange

State estimation in the presence of uncertain or data-driven noise distributions remains a critical challenge in control and robotics. Although the Kalman filter is the most popular choice, its performance degrades significantly when…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-04-01 Minhyuk Jang , Astghik Hakobyan , Insoon Yang

The Kalman filter is an algorithm for the estimation of hidden variables in dynamical systems under linear Gauss-Markov assumptions with widespread applications across different fields. Recently, its Bayesian interpretation has received a…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2021-11-23 Manuel Baltieri , Takuya Isomura

This work introduces the Gaussian integration to address a smoothing problem of a nonlinear stochastic state space model. The probability densities of states at each time instant are assumed to be Gaussian, and their means and covariances…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-01-14 Rohit Kumar Singh , Kundan Kumar , Shovan Bhaumik

Mechanistic models with differential equations are a key component of scientific applications of machine learning. Inference in such models is usually computationally demanding, because it involves repeatedly solving the differential…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-07-06 Jonathan Schmidt , Nicholas Krämer , Philipp Hennig

The Kalman filter is extensively used for state estimation for linear systems under Gaussian noise. When non-Gaussian L\'evy noise is present, the conventional Kalman filter may fail to be effective due to the fact that the non-Gaussian…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2013-03-12 Xu Sun , Jinqiao Duan , Xiaofan Li , Xiangjun Wang

Joint state and parameter estimation is a core problem for dynamic Bayesian networks. Although modern probabilistic inference toolkits make it relatively easy to specify large and practically relevant probabilistic models, the silver…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2016-03-31 Yusuf Bugra Erol , Yi Wu , Lei Li , Stuart Russell

Bayesian probabilistic numerical methods are a set of tools providing posterior distributions on the output of numerical methods. The use of these methods is usually motivated by the fact that they can represent our uncertainty due to…

Computation · Statistics 2018-08-01 Xiaoyue Xi , François-Xavier Briol , Mark Girolami

Current experimental design techniques for dynamical systems often only incorporate measurement noise, while dynamical systems also involve process noise. To construct experimental designs we need to quantify their information content. The…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-24 Arno Strouwen , Bart M. Nicolaï , Peter Goos

Filtering and smoothing algorithms for linear discrete-time state-space models with skewed and heavy-tailed measurement noise are presented. The algorithms use a variational Bayes approximation of the posterior distribution of models that…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2015-06-30 Henri Nurminen , Tohid Ardeshiri , Robert Piché , Fredrik Gustafsson

The particle filter is a popular Bayesian filtering algorithm for use in cases where the state-space model is nonlinear and/or the random terms (initial state or noises) are non-Gaussian distributed. We study the behavior of the error in…

Computation · Statistics 2019-03-29 Ziyu Liu , Shihong Wei , James C. Spall

De Facto, signal processing is the interpolation and extrapolation of a sequence of observations viewed as a realization of a stochastic process. Its role in applied statistics ranges from scenarios in forecasting and time series analysis,…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-05-12 Nozer D. Singpurwalla , Nicholas G. Polson , Refik Soyer

State estimation or filtering serves as a fundamental task to enable intelligent decision-making in applications such as autonomous vehicles, robotics, healthcare monitoring, smart grids, intelligent transportation, and predictive…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-16 Aamir Hussain Chughtai

In this paper, we exploit the gradient flow structure of continuous-time formulations of Bayesian inference in terms of their numerical time-stepping. We focus on two particular examples, namely, the continuous-time ensemble Kalman-Bucy…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2019-06-24 Sahani Pathiraja , Sebastian Reich

In this paper, we propose a filtering algorithm for simultaneously estimating the mode, input and state of hidden mode switched linear stochastic systems with unknown inputs. Using a multiple-model approach with a bank of linear input and…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2016-06-28 Sze Zheng Yong , Minghui Zhu , Emilio Frazzoli

Identifying and calibrating quantitative dynamical models for physical quantum systems is important for a variety of applications. Here we present a closed-loop Bayesian learning algorithm for estimating multiple unknown parameters in a…

We consider the Bayesian optimal filtering problem: i.e. estimating some conditional statistics of a latent time-series signal from an observation sequence. Classical approaches often rely on the use of assumed or estimated transition and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-03-16 Adrian N. Bishop , Edwin V. Bonilla

Bayesian calibration is widely used for inverse analysis and uncertainty analysis for complex systems in the presence of both computer models and observation data. In the present work, we focus on large-scale fluid-structure interaction…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2022-01-03 Shunxiang Cao , Daniel Zhengyu Huang

We investigate Bayesian predictive inference for finite population quantities when there are unequal probabilities of selection. Only limited information about the sample design is available; i.e., only the first-order selection…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-04-10 Junheng Ma , Joe Sedransk , Balgobin Nandram , Lu Chen