Related papers: A Hierarchical Bayesian Model of Pitch Framing
Ecologists increasingly rely on Bayesian methods to fit capture-recapture models. Capture-recapture models are used to estimate abundance while accounting for imperfect detectability in individual-level data. A variety of implementations…
We establish thresholds for the feasibility of random multi-graph alignment in two models. In the Gaussian model, we demonstrate an "all-or-nothing" phenomenon: above a critical threshold, exact alignment is achievable with high…
Recent advancements in professional baseball have led to the introduction of the Automated Ball-Strike (ABS) system, or ``robot umpires,'' which utilize machine learning, computer vision, and precise tracking technologies to automate…
The baseball statistic "Wins Above Replacement" (WAR) has emerged as one of the most popular evaluation metrics. But it is not readily observed and tabulated; WAR is an estimate of a parameter in a vaguely defined model with all its…
Very little attention has been paid to the comparison of efficiency between high accuracy statistical parsers. This paper proposes one machine-independent metric that is general enough to allow comparisons across very different parsing…
Injuries are a major cost in sports. Teams spend millions of dollars every year on players who are hurt and unable to play, resulting in lost games, decreased fan interest and additional wages for replacement players. Modern convolutional…
The effect of syntactic priming exhibits three well-documented empirical properties: the lexical boost, the inverse frequency effect, and the asymmetrical decay. We aim to show how these three empirical phenomena can be reconciled in a…
The features in many prediction models naturally take the form of a hierarchy. The lower levels represent individuals or events. These units group naturally into locations and intervals or other aggregates, often at multiple levels. Levels…
This work contains the mathematical exploration of a few prototypical games in which central concepts from statistics and probability theory naturally emerge. The first two kinds of games are termed Fisher and Bayesian games, which are…
Football forecasting models traditionally rate teams on past match results, that is based on the number of goals scored. Goals, however, involve a high element of chance and thus past results often do not reflect the performances of the…
Parametric empirical Bayes (EB) estimators have been widely used in variety of fields including small area estimation, disease mapping. Since EB estimator is constructed by plugging in the estimator of parameters in prior distributions, it…
The authors give an approximation method for Bayesian inference in arena model, which is focused on paired comparisons with eliminations and bifurcations. The approximation method simplifies the inference by reducing parameters and…
The presence or absence of winner-loser effects is a widely discussed phenomenon across both sports and psychology research. Investigation of such effects is often hampered by the limited availability of data. Online chess has exploded in…
Despite the massive popularity of the Asian Handicap (AH) football (soccer) betting market, its efficiency has not been adequately studied by the relevant literature. This paper combines rating systems with Bayesian networks and presents…
Numerical simulations are widely used to predict the behavior of physical systems, with Bayesian approaches being particularly well suited for this purpose. However, experimental observations are necessary to calibrate certain simulator…
The use of tiered warnings and multicategorical forecasts are ubiquitous in meteorological operations. Here, a flexible family of scoring functions is presented for evaluating the performance of ordered multicategorical forecasts. Each…
Bayesian inference and the use of posterior or posterior predictive probabilities for decision making have become increasingly popular in clinical trials. The current practice in Bayesian clinical trials relies on a hybrid…
We estimate the effect of playing in one's home country in professional squash using a Bayesian hierarchical model applied to men's and women's Professional Squash Association matches from 2018-2024. The model incorporates players' world…
Statistical analysis is a major aspect of baseball, from player averages to historical benchmarks and records. Much of baseball fanfare is based around players exceeding the norm, some in a single game and others over a long career. Career…
Educators teaching entry-level university engineering modules face the challenge of identifying which topics students find most difficult and how to support diverse student needs effectively. This study demonstrates a rigorous yet…