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Hidden Markov Chains (HMC) and Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN) are two well known tools for predicting time series. Even though these solutions were developed independently in distinct communities, they share some similarities when…

Randomized response (RR) designs are used to collect response data about sensitive behaviors (e.g., criminal behavior, sexual desires). The modeling of RR data is more complex, since it requires a description of the RR process. For the…

In many applications, data can be heterogeneous in the sense of spanning latent groups with different underlying distributions. When predictive models are applied to such data the heterogeneity can affect both predictive performance and…

Data collected from wearable devices and smartphones can shed light on an individual's pattern of behavioral and circadian routine. Phone use can be modeled as alternating event process, between the state of active use and the state of…

Genetic sequence data are well described by hidden Markov models (HMMs) in which latent states correspond to clusters of similar mutation patterns. Theory from statistical genetics suggests that these HMMs are nonhomogeneous (their…

In the classical setting, the training of a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) typically relies on a single, sufficiently long observation sequence that can be regarded as representative of the underlying stochastic process. In this context, the…

Recurrent neural networks (RNNs) provide a powerful approach in neuroscience to infer latent dynamics in neural populations and to generate hypotheses about the neural computations underlying behavior. However, past work has focused on…

We aim to model unknown file processing. As the content of log files often evolves over time, we established a dynamic statistical model which learns and adapts processing and parsing rules. First, we limit the amount of unstructured text…

Hidden Markov models (HMMs) are powerful tools for analysing time series data that depend on discrete underlying but unobserved states. As such, they have gained prominence across numerous empirical disciplines, in particular ecology,…

Recently, there has been a surge of interest in using spectral methods for estimating latent variable models. However, it is usually assumed that the distribution of the observations conditioned on the latent variables is either discrete or…

In this paper, we propose circular Hidden Quantum Markov Models (c-HQMMs), which can be applied for modeling temporal data in quantum datasets (with classical datasets as a special case). We show that c-HQMMs are equivalent to a constrained…

Ecological systems can often be characterised by changes among a finite set of underlying states pertaining to individuals, populations, communities, or entire ecosystems through time. Owing to the inherent difficulty of empirical field…

Hidden Markov Chains (HMCs) are commonly used mathematical models of probabilistic systems. They are employed in various fields such as speech recognition, signal processing, and biological sequence analysis. We consider the problem of…

The package High-dimensional Metrics (\Rpackage{hdm}) is an evolving collection of statistical methods for estimation and quantification of uncertainty in high-dimensional approximately sparse models. It focuses on providing confidence…

Hidden Markov models (HMMs) and partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) form a useful tool for modeling dynamical systems. They are particularly useful for representing environments such as road networks and office…

Analyzing disease progression patterns can provide useful insights into the disease processes of many chronic conditions. These analyses may help inform recruitment for prevention trials or the development and personalization of treatments…

We propose a Neural Hidden Markov Model (HMM) with Adaptive Granularity Attention (AGA) for high-frequency order flow modeling. The model addresses the challenge of capturing multi-scale temporal dynamics in financial markets, where…

The well-established methodology for the estimation of hidden semi-Markov models (HSMMs) as hidden Markov models (HMMs) with extended state spaces is further developed to incorporate covariate influences across all aspects of the state…

Partially observed Markov process (POMP) models, also known as hidden Markov models or state space models, are ubiquitous tools for time series analysis. The R package pomp provides a very flexible framework for Monte Carlo statistical…

Hidden Markov models and their variants are the predominant sequential classification method in such domains as speech recognition, bioinformatics and natural language processing. Being generative rather than discriminative models, however,…