Related papers: A Multi-Index Markov Chain Monte Carlo Method

An efficient simulation-based methodology is proposed for the rolling window estimation of state space models, called particle rolling Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) with double block sampling. In our method, which is based on Sequential…

Estimating risk measures such as large loss probabilities and Value-at-Risk is fundamental in financial risk management and often relies on computationally intensive nested Monte Carlo methods. While Multi-Level Monte Carlo (MLMC)…

We introduce a new method to price American-style options on underlying investments governed by stochastic volatility (SV) models. The method does not require the volatility process to be observed. Instead, it exploits the fact that the…

In this paper we build on previous work which uses inferences techniques, in particular Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods, to solve parameterized control problems. We propose a number of modifications in order to make this approach…

We investigate the problem of computing a nested expectation of the form $\mathbb{P}[\mathbb{E}[X|Y] \!\geq\!0]\!=\!\mathbb{E}[\textrm{H}(\mathbb{E}[X|Y])]$ where $\textrm{H}$ is the Heaviside function. This nested expectation appears, for…

Bayesian inference with Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is challenging when the likelihood function is irregular and expensive to compute. We explore several sampling algorithms that make use of subset evaluations to reduce computational…

Using Markov chain Monte Carlo to sample from posterior distributions was the key innovation which made Bayesian data analysis practical. Notoriously, however, MCMC is hard to tune, hard to diagnose, and hard to parallelize. This…

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods, also known as particle filters, constitute a class of algorithms used to approximate expectations with respect to a sequence of probability distributions as well as the normalising constants of those…

The stochastic simulation algorithm (SSA) and the corresponding Monte Carlo (MC) method are among the most common approaches for studying stochastic processes. They rely on knowledge of interevent probability density functions (PDFs) and on…

In the first part of this paper we study approximations of trajectories of Piecewise Deter-ministic Processes (PDP) when the flow is not explicit by the thinning method. We also establish a strong error estimate for PDPs as well as a weak…

Monte Carlo (MC) techniques are often used to estimate integrals of a multivariate function using randomly generated samples of the function. In light of the increasing interest in uncertainty quantification and robust design applications…

Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) has become an important methodology in applied mathematics for reducing the computational cost of weak approximations. For many problems, it is well-known that strong pairwise coupling of numerical solutions in…

A challenging problem in probabilistic programming is to develop inference algorithms that work for arbitrary programs in a universal probabilistic programming language (PPL). We present the nonparametric involutive Markov chain Monte Carlo…

Closed-form stochastic filtering equations can be derived in a general setting where probability distributions are replaced by some specific outer measures. In this article, we study how the principles of the sequential Monte Carlo method…

The literature in social network analysis has largely focused on methods and models which require complete network data; however there exist many networks which can only be studied via sampling methods due to the scale or complexity of the…

We propose a variance reduction framework for variational inference using the Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) method. Our framework is built on reparameterized gradient estimators and "recycles" parameters obtained from past update history in…

Multi-fidelity Monte Carlo (MFMC) is a variance reduction method that leverages a multi-fidelity ensemble of models of varying cost and accuracy levels. Constructing an MFMC estimator with optimal variance requires knowledge of the…

Discrete choice models are commonly used by applied statisticians in numerous fields, such as marketing, economics, finance, and operations research. When agents in discrete choice models are assumed to have differing preferences, exact…

Irreversible and rejection-free Monte Carlo methods, recently developed in Physics under the name Event-Chain and known in Statistics as Piecewise Deterministic Monte Carlo (PDMC), have proven to produce clear acceleration over standard…

In this paper we discuss the possibility of using multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) methods for weak approximation schemes. It turns out that by means of a simple coupling between consecutive time discretisation levels, one can achieve the same…