Related papers: Probabilistic Mid- and Long-Term Electricity Price…
Retailers and major consumers of electricity generally purchase an important percentage of their estimated electricity needs years ahead in the forward market. This long-term electricity procurement task consists of determining when to buy…
Electricity markets are significantly more volatile than other comparable financial or commodity markets. Extreme price outcomes and their transmission between regions pose significant risks for market participants. We examine the…
We introduce the concept of temporal hierarchy forecasting (THieF) in predicting day-ahead electricity prices and show that reconciling forecasts for hourly products and 2- to 24-hour blocks can significantly (up to 13%) improve accuracy at…
Relationships between the energy and the finance markets are increasingly important. Understanding these relationships is vital for policymakers and other stakeholders as the world faces challenges such as satisfying humanity's increasing…
Studies looking at electricity market designs for very high shares of wind and solar often conclude that the energy-only market will break down. Without fuel costs, it is said that there is nothing to set prices. Symptoms of breakdown…
The problem of probabilistic forecasting and online simulation of real-time electricity market with stochastic generation and demand is considered. By exploiting the parametric structure of the direct current optimal power flow, a new…
Energy is a critical driver of modern economic systems. Accurate energy price forecasting plays an important role in supporting decision-making at various levels, from operational purchasing decisions at individual business organizations to…
We discuss stochastic modeling of volatility persistence and anti-correlations in electricity spot prices, and for this purpose we present two mean-reverting versions of the multifractal random walk (MRW). In the first model the…
Electricity price forecasting (EPF) plays a critical role in power system operation and market decision making. While existing review studies have provided valuable insights into forecasting horizons, market mechanisms, and evaluation…
Short term electricity price forecast is essential in competitive power markets, yet electricity price series exhibit high volatility, irregularity, and non-stationarity. This phenomenon is pronounced in the South Australian region of the…
Electricity price forecasting is a critical component of modern energy-management systems, yet existing approaches heavily rely on numerical histories and ignore contemporaneous textual signals. We introduce NSW-EPNews, the first benchmark…
In recent years, there has been a significant focus on advancing the next generation of power systems. Despite these efforts, persistent challenges revolve around addressing the operational impact of uncertainty on predicted data,…
This paper evaluates the impact of the power extent on price in the electricity market. The competitiveness extent of the electricity market during specific times in a day is considered to achieve this. Then, the effect of competitiveness…
Accurate price predictions are essential for market participants in order to optimize their operational schedules and bidding strategies, especially in the current context where electricity prices become more volatile and less predictable…
The electricity market is threatened by supply scarcity, which may lead to very sharp price spikes in the spot market. On the other hand, demand-side's activities could effectively mitigate the supply scarcity and absorb most of these…
As distributed energy resources (DERs) proliferate, future power system will need new market platforms enabling prosumers to trade various electricity and grid-support products. However, prosumers often exhibit complex, product…
We introduce a new and highly tractable structural model for spot and derivative prices in electricity markets. Using a stochastic model of the bid stack, we translate the demand for power and the prices of generating fuels into electricity…
This work presents a methodology for forward electricity contract price projection based on market equilibrium and social welfare optimization. In the methodology supply and demand for forward contracts are produced in such a way that each…
While deep learning gradually penetrates operational planning, its inherent prediction errors may significantly affect electricity prices. This letter examines how prediction errors propagate into electricity prices, revealing notable…
Probabilistic electricity price forecasting (PEPF) is subject of increasing interest, following the demand for proper quantification of prediction uncertainty, to support the operation in complex power markets with increasing share of…