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Related papers: Reliable Decision Support using Counterfactual Mod…

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Deep Gaussian Processes (DGP) are hierarchical generalizations of Gaussian Processes (GP) that have proven to work effectively on a multiple supervised regression tasks. They combine the well calibrated uncertainty estimates of GPs with the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-01-10 Marton Havasi , José Miguel Hernández-Lobato , Juan José Murillo-Fuentes

Estimating counterfactual outcomes over time from observational data is relevant for many applications (e.g., personalized medicine). Yet, state-of-the-art methods build upon simple long short-term memory (LSTM) networks, thus rendering…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-06 Valentyn Melnychuk , Dennis Frauen , Stefan Feuerriegel

The recent adoption of machine learning as a tool in real world decision making has spurred interest in understanding how these decisions are being made. Counterfactual Explanations are a popular interpretable machine learning technique…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-10-05 Andrew O'Brien , Edward Kim

This paper introduces an innovative approach to enhance distributed cooperative learning using Gaussian process (GP) regression in multi-agent systems (MASs). The key contribution of this work is the development of an elective learning…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-06 Zewen Yang , Xiaobing Dai , Akshat Dubey , Sandra Hirche , Georges Hattab

A popular strategy for active learning is to specifically target a reduction in epistemic uncertainty, since aleatoric uncertainty is often considered as being intrinsic to the system of interest and therefore not reducible. Yet,…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-12-12 Jake Thomas , Jeremie Houssineau

The growing integration of machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI) models into high-stakes domains such as healthcare and scientific research calls for models that are not only accurate but also interpretable. Among the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-23 Zhuo Cao , Xuan Zhao , Lena Krieger , Hanno Scharr , Ira Assent

Conditional Neural Processes (CNP; Garnelo et al., 2018) are an attractive family of meta-learning models which produce well-calibrated predictions, enable fast inference at test time, and are trainable via a simple maximum likelihood…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-10-19 Stratis Markou , James Requeima , Wessel Bruinsma , Richard Turner

Efficient methods to evaluate new algorithms are critical for improving interactive bandit and reinforcement learning systems such as recommendation systems. A/B tests are reliable, but are time- and money-consuming, and entail a risk of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-08-04 Yusuke Narita , Shota Yasui , Kohei Yata

Falsification is the basis for testing existing hypotheses, and a great danger is posed when results incorrectly reject our prior notions (false positives). Though nonparametric and nonlinear exploratory methods of uncovering coupling…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-06-08 Ameer Ghouse , Gaetano Valenza

We propose a counterfactual approach to train ``causality-aware" predictive models that are able to leverage causal information in static anticausal machine learning tasks (i.e., prediction tasks where the outcome influences the features).…

Applications · Statistics 2020-12-01 Elias Chaibub Neto

Forecasting future events is a fundamental challenge for temporal knowledge graphs (tKG). As in real life predicting a mean function is most of the time not sufficient, but the question remains how confident can we be about our prediction?…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-01-13 Soeren Nolting , Zhen Han , Volker Tresp

The wide adoption of Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) in applications where decision-making under uncertainty is fundamental, has brought a great deal of attention to the ability of these models to accurately quantify the uncertainty in…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-05-29 Gia-Lac Tran , Edwin V. Bonilla , John P. Cunningham , Pietro Michiardi , Maurizio Filippone

There is a broad consensus on the importance of deep learning models in tasks involving complex data. Often, an adequate understanding of these models is required when focusing on the transparency of decisions in human-critical…

We introduce constrained Gaussian process (CGP), a Gaussian process model for random functions that allows easy placement of mathematical constrains (e.g., non-negativity, monotonicity, etc) on its sample functions. CGP comes with…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-04-23 Jeremiah Zhe Liu

Counterfactual explanations (CEs) are advocated as being ideally suited to providing algorithmic recourse for subjects affected by the predictions of machine learning models. While CEs can be beneficial to affected individuals, recent work…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-06 Junqi Jiang , Francesco Leofante , Antonio Rago , Francesca Toni

We present an approach for satisfying state constraints in systems with nonparametric uncertainty by estimating this uncertainty with a real-time-update Gaussian process (GP) model. Notably, new data is incorporated into the model in real…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-05-13 Ricardo Gutierrez , Jesse B. Hoagg

Understanding causes and effects in mechanical systems is an essential component of reasoning in the physical world. This work poses a new problem of counterfactual learning of object mechanics from visual input. We develop the CoPhy…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2020-04-08 Fabien Baradel , Natalia Neverova , Julien Mille , Greg Mori , Christian Wolf

In decision-making systems, it is important to have classifiers that have calibrated uncertainties, with an optimisation objective that can be used for automated model selection and training. Gaussian processes (GPs) provide uncertainty…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-03-05 Vincent Dutordoir , Mark van der Wilk , Artem Artemev , James Hensman

While state-of-the-art NLP models have been achieving the excellent performance of a wide range of tasks in recent years, important questions are being raised about their robustness and their underlying sensitivity to systematic biases that…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2022-03-25 Linyi Yang , Jiazheng Li , Pádraig Cunningham , Yue Zhang , Barry Smyth , Ruihai Dong

Causal inference, or counterfactual prediction, is central to decision making in healthcare, policy and social sciences. To de-bias causal estimators with high-dimensional data in observational studies, recent advances suggest the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-10-20 Shuxi Zeng , Serge Assaad , Chenyang Tao , Shounak Datta , Lawrence Carin , Fan Li