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The problem of nonparametric estimation of the conditional density of a response, given a vector of explanatory variables, is classical and of prominent importance in many prediction problems since the conditional density provides a more…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-04-21 Catia Scricciolo

Many statistical models can be simulated forwards but have intractable likelihoods. Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) methods are used to infer properties of these models from data. Traditionally these methods approximate the posterior…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-04-03 George Papamakarios , Iain Murray

We study a non-parametric approach to multivariate density estimation. The estimators are piecewise constant density functions supported by binary partitions. The partition of the sample space is learned by maximizing the likelihood of the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-08-21 Linxi Liu , Wing Hung Wong

We consider the problem of estimation in Hidden Markov models with finite state space and nonparametric emission distributions. Efficient estimators for the transition matrix are exhibited, and a semiparametric Bernstein-von Mises result is…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-03-09 Daniel Moss , Judith Rousseau

We revisit the problem of sampling from a target distribution that has a smooth strongly log-concave density everywhere in $\mathbb R^p$. In this context, if no additional density information is available, the randomized midpoint…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-06-19 Lu Yu , Avetik Karagulyan , Arnak Dalalyan

In the usual Bayesian setting, a full probabilistic model is required to link the data and parameters, and the form of this model and the inference and prediction mechanisms are specified via de Finetti's representation. In general, such a…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-21 Yu Luo , David A. Stephens , Daniel J. Graham , Emma J. McCoy

We reconsider a nonparametric density model based on Gaussian processes. By augmenting the model with latent P\'olya--Gamma random variables and a latent marked Poisson process we obtain a new likelihood which is conjugate to the model's…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-05-30 Christian Donner , Manfred Opper

We consider the problem of sampling from a density of the form $p(x) \propto \exp(-f(x)- g(x))$, where $f: \mathbb{R}^d \rightarrow \mathbb{R}$ is a smooth and strongly convex function and $g: \mathbb{R}^d \rightarrow \mathbb{R}$ is a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-10-02 Wenlong Mou , Nicolas Flammarion , Martin J. Wainwright , Peter L. Bartlett

A novel approximate Bayesian filter based on backward stochastic differential equations is introduced. It uses a nonlinear Feynman--Kac representation of the filtering problem and the approximation of an unnormalized filtering density using…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2026-04-21 Kasper Bågmark , Adam Andersson , Stig Larsson

Discretized Langevin diffusions are efficient Monte Carlo methods for sampling from high dimensional target densities that are log-Lipschitz-smooth and (strongly) log-concave. In particular, the Euclidean Langevin Monte Carlo sampling…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-02-12 Kelvin Shuangjian Zhang , Gabriel Peyré , Jalal Fadili , Marcelo Pereyra

Motivated by Tweedie's formula for the Compound Decision problem, we examine the theoretical foundations of empirical Bayes estimators that directly model the marginal density $m(y)$. Our main result shows that polynomial log-marginals of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-01-28 Jyotishka Datta , Nicholas G. Polson

This paper presents a novel approach to Bayesian nonparametric spectral analysis of stationary multivariate time series. Starting with a parametric vector-autoregressive model, the parametric likelihood is nonparametrically adjusted in the…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-10 Yixuan Liu , Claudia Kirch , Jeong Eun Lee , Renate Meyer

This paper investigates the {\em nonasymptotic} properties of Bayes procedures for estimating an unknown distribution from $n$ i.i.d.\ observations. We assume that the prior is supported by a model $(\scr{S},h)$ (where $h$ denotes the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-11-03 Lucien Birgé

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods remain the mainstay of Bayesian estimation of structural equation models (SEM), though they often incur a high computational cost. We present a bespoke approximate Bayesian approach to SEM, drawing on…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-20 Haziq Jamil , Håvard Rue

We study the proximal sampler of Lee, Shen, and Tian (2021) and obtain new convergence guarantees under weaker assumptions than strong log-concavity: namely, our results hold for (1) weakly log-concave targets, and (2) targets satisfying…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-02-15 Yongxin Chen , Sinho Chewi , Adil Salim , Andre Wibisono

In this paper, we describe a Bayesian nonparametric approach to make inference for a bivariate spherically symmetric distribution. We consider a Dirichlet invariant process prior on the set of all bivariate spherically symmetric…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-08-02 Reyhaneh Hosseini , Mahmoud Zarepour

We consider the problem of estimating the predictive density of future observations from a non-parametric regression model. The density estimators are evaluated under Kullback--Leibler divergence and our focus is on establishing the exact…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2010-10-12 Xinyi Xu , Feng Liang

We study the asymptotic behavior of a weighted ultrafast diffusion PDE on the real line, with a log-concave and log-lipschitz weight, and prove exponential convergence to equilibrium. This result goes beyond the compact setting studied in…

Analysis of PDEs · Mathematics 2025-07-18 Max Fathi , Mikaela Iacobelli

Bernstein-von Mises results (BvM) establish that the Laplace approximation is asymptotically correct in the large-data limit. However, these results are inappropriate for computational purposes since they only hold over most, and not all,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-05-01 Guillaume P. Dehaene

The use of non parametric hidden Markov models with finite state space is flourishing in practice while few theoretical guarantees are known in this framework. Here, we study asymptotic guarantees for these models in the Bayesian framework.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-11-30 Elodie Vernet
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