Related papers: A numerical method for the estimation of time-vary…
This paper proposes a variational Bayes algorithm for computationally efficient posterior and predictive inference in time-varying parameter (TVP) models. Within this context we specify a new dynamic variable/model selection strategy for…
Time-varying parameters (TVPs) models are frequently used in economics to capture structural change. I highlight a rather underutilized fact -- that these are actually ridge regressions. Instantly, this makes computations, tuning, and…
Time-varying parameter (TVP) regression models can involve a huge number of coefficients. Careful prior elicitation is required to yield sensible posterior and predictive inferences. In addition, the computational demands of Markov Chain…
Shrinkage for time-varying parameter (TVP) models is investigated within a Bayesian framework, with the aim to automatically reduce time-varying parameters to static ones, if the model is overfitting. This is achieved through placing the…
Time-varying parameter (TVP) models have the potential to be over-parameterized, particularly when the number of variables in the model is large. Global-local priors are increasingly used to induce shrinkage in such models. But the…
In this paper, we write the time-varying parameter (TVP) regression model involving K explanatory variables and T observations as a constant coefficient regression model with KT explanatory variables. In contrast with much of the existing…
Many real-world systems modeled using partial differential equations (PDEs) involve unknown parameters that must be estimated from limited, noisy system observations. While typically assumed to be constants, some of these unobserved…
Time-varying parameter VARs with stochastic volatility are routinely used for structural analysis and forecasting in settings involving a few endogenous variables. Applying these models to high-dimensional datasets has proved to be…
The main goal of this paper is to develop a methodology for estimating time varying parameter vector auto-regression (TVP-VAR) models with a timeinvariant long-run relationship between endogenous variables and changes in exogenous…
It is crucially important to estimate unknown parameters in earth system models by integrating observation and numerical simulation. For many applications in earth system sciences, an optimization method which allows parameters to…
Researchers increasingly wish to estimate time-varying parameter (TVP) regressions which involve a large number of explanatory variables. Including prior information to mitigate over-parameterization concerns has led to many using Bayesian…
We study kernel-based estimation of nonparametric time-varying parameters (TVPs) in linear models. Our contributions are threefold. First, we establish consistency and asymptotic normality of the kernel-based estimator for a broad class of…
Many econometric analyses involve spatio--temporal data. A considerable amount of literature has addressed spatio--temporal models, with Spatial Dynamic Panel Data (SDPD) being widely investigated and applied. In real data applications,…
Simple exponential smoothing is widely used in forecasting economic time series. This is because it is quick to compute and it generally delivers accurate forecasts. On the other hand, its multivariate version has received little attention…
The paper proposes a time-varying parameter global vector autoregressive (TVP-GVAR) framework for predicting and analysing developed region economic variables. We want to provide an easily accessible approach for the economy application…
In this paper, based on real-time nonlinear receding horizon control methodology, a novel approach is developed for parameter estimation of time invariant and time varying nonlinear dynamical systems in chaotic environments. Here, the…
In control and engineering community, models generally contain a number of parameters which are unknown or roughly known. A complete knowledge of these parameters is critical to describe and analyze the dynamics of the system. This paper…
Many real-world systems modeled using differential equations involve unknown or uncertain parameters. Standard approaches to address parameter estimation inverse problems in this setting typically focus on estimating constants; yet some…
In this chapter, we review variance selection for time-varying parameter (TVP) models for univariate and multivariate time series within a Bayesian framework. We show how both continuous as well as discrete spike-and-slab shrinkage priors…
We present an optimization-based method for the joint estimation of system parameters and noise covariances of linear time-variant systems. Given measured data, this method maximizes the likelihood of the parameters. We solve the…