Related papers: A Donsker-type Theorem for Log-likelihood Processe…

To achieve scalable and accurate inference for latent Gaussian processes, we propose a variational approximation based on a family of Gaussian distributions whose covariance matrices have sparse inverse Cholesky (SIC) factors. We combine…

A set $P\subset \mathbb N$ is called predictive if for any zero entropy finite-valued stationary process $(X_i)_{i\in \mathbb Z}$, $X_0$ is measurable with respect to $(X_i)_{i\in P}$. We know that $\mathbb N$ is a predictive set. In this…

A family of log-correlated Gaussian processes indexed by metric spaces is introduced, when the metric is conditionally negative definite. These processes arise as the limit of bi-fractional Brownian motions indexed by $(H,K)$ scaled by…

We observe a random measure $N$ and aim at estimating its intensity $s$. This statistical framework allows to deal simultaneously with the problems of estimating a density, the marginals of a multivariate distribution, the mean of a random…

The non-Markovian nature of rough volatility processes makes Monte Carlo methods challenging and it is in fact a major challenge to develop fast and accurate simulation algorithms. We provide an efficient one for stochastic Volterra…

We consider models for multivariate point processes where the intensity is given nonparametrically in terms of functions in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space. The likelihood function involves a time integral and is consequently not given…

We provide new limit theory for functionals of a general class of processes lying at the boundary between stationarity and nonstationarity -- what we term weakly nonstationary processes (WNPs). This includes, as leading examples, fractional…

We consider the problem of estimating a parameter associated to a Bayesian inverse problem. Treating the unknown initial condition as a nuisance parameter, typically one must resort to a numerical approximation of gradient of the…

We consider a natural class of long range random walks on torsion free nilpotent groups and develop limit theorems for these walks. Given the original discrete group $\Gamma$ and a random walk $(S_n)_ {n\ge1}$ driven by a certain type of…

In contrast to their seemingly simple and shared structure of independence and stationarity, L\'evy processes exhibit a wide variety of behaviors, from the self-similar Wiener process to piecewise-constant compound Poisson processes.…

This paper discusses the semantics and proof theory of Nilsson's probabilistic logic, outlining both the benefits of its well-defined model theory and the drawbacks of its proof theory. Within Nilsson's semantic framework, we derive a set…

Mathematical models for complex systems under random fluctuations often certain uncertain parameters. However, quantifying model uncertainty for a stochastic differential equation with an $\alpha$-stable L\'evy process is still lacking.…

We address here the problem of extending the Pesin relation among positive Lyapunov exponents and the Kolmogorov-Sinai entropy to the case of dynamical systems exhibiting subexponential instabilities. By using a recent rigorous result due…

We present a review of some recent results on estimation of location parameter for several models of observations with cusp-type singularity at the change point. We suppose that the cusp-type models fit better to the real phenomena…

Solving inverse problems using Bayesian methods can become prohibitively expensive when likelihood evaluations involve complex and large scale numerical models. A common approach to circumvent this issue is to approximate the forward model…

For $G$ an open set in $\mathbb{C}$ and $W$ a non-vanishing holomorphic function in $G$, in the late 1990's, Pritsker and Varga characterized pairs $(G,W)$ having the property that any $f$ holomorphic in $G$ can be locally uniformly…

Consider a class of probability distributions which is dense in the space of all probability distributions on $\mathbb{R}^{d}$ with respect to weak convergence, for every $d\in\mathbb{N}$. Then, we construct various explicit classes of…

This paper investigates the (conditional) quasi-likelihood ratio test for the threshold in MA models. Under the hypothesis of no threshold, it is shown that the test statistic converges weakly to a function of the centred Gaussian process.…

Donsker Theorem is perhaps the most famous invariance principle result for Markov processes. It states that when properly normalized, a random walk behaves asymptotically like a Brownian motion. This approach can be extended to general…

We consider versions of the FIND algorithm where the pivot element used is the median of a subset chosen uniformly at random from the data. For the median selection we assume that subsamples of size asymptotic to $c \cdot n^\alpha$ are…