Related papers: Heavy Tails for an Alternative Stochastic Perpetui…
Tail dependence models for distributions attracted to a max-stable law are fitted using observations above a high threshold. To cope with spatial, high-dimensional data, a rank-based M-estimator is proposed relying on bivariate margins…
We study the upper tail of the number of arithmetic progressions of a given length in a random subset of {1,...,n}, establishing exponential bounds which are best possible up to constant factors in the exponent. The proof also extends to…
Motivated by seminal paper of Kozlov et al.(1975) we consider in this paper a branching process with a geometric offspring distribution parametrized by random success probability $A$ and immigration equals $1$ in each generation. In…
The possibilities of the use of the coefficient of variation over a high threshold in tail modelling are discussed. The paper also considers multiple threshold tests for a generalized Pareto distribution, together with a threshold selection…
The extreme value dependence of regularly varying stationary time series can be described by the spectral tail process. Drees, Segers and Warchol [Extremes 18(3): 369--402, 2015] proposed estimators of the marginal distributions of this…
Effects of randomness on non-integer power law tails in multiplicatively interacting stochastic processes are investigated theoretically. Generally, randomness causes decrease of the exponent of tails and the growth rate of processes.…
Normalizing flows are a flexible class of probability distributions, expressed as transformations of a simple base distribution. A limitation of standard normalizing flows is representing distributions with heavy tails, which arise in…
We study the situations when the solution to a weighted stochastic recursion has a power law tail. To this end, we develop two complementary approaches, the first one extends Goldie's (1991) implicit renewal theorem to cover recursions on…
Convolutions of long-tailed and subexponential distributions play a major role in the analysis of many stochastic systems. We study these convolutions, proving some important new results through a simple and coherent approach, and showing…
This paper investigates the asymptotic behavior of higher-order conditional tail moments, which quantify the contribution of individual losses in the event of systemic collapse. The study is conducted within a framework comprising two…
In this paper, we introduce a new time series model having a stochastic exponential tail. This model is constructed based on the Normal Tempered Stable distribution with a time-varying parameter. The model captures the stochastic…
In this paper we study the distribution tails and the moments of a condition number which arises in the study of homogeneous systems of linear inequalities. We consider the case where this system is defined by a Gaussian random matrix and…
Normalising flows are tractable probabilistic models that leverage the power of deep learning to describe a wide parametric family of distributions, all while remaining trainable using maximum likelihood. We discuss how these methods can be…
A random variable $\xi$ has a {\it light-tailed} distribution (for short: is light-tailed) if it possesses a finite exponential moment, $\E \exp (\lambda \xi) <\infty$ for some $\lambda >0$, and has a {\it heavy-tailed} distribution (is…
We consider the probability that a weighted sum of $n$ i.i.d. random variables $X_j$, $j = 1, . . ., n$, with stretched exponential tails is larger than its expectation and determine the rate of its decay, under suitable conditions on the…
For a stochastic difference equation $D_n=A_nD_{n-1}+B_n$ which stabilises upon time we study tail distribution asymptotics of $D_n$ under the assumption that the distribution of $\log(1+|A_1|+|B_1|)$ is heavy-tailed, that is, all its…
It is well known that the probability distribution of high-frequency financial returns is characterized by a leptokurtic, heavy-tailed shape. This behavior undermines the typical assumption of Gaussian log-returns behind the standard…
We obtain an uniform tail estimates for natural normed sums of independent random variables (r.v.) with regular varying tails of distributions. We give also many examples on order to show the exactness of offered estimates and discuss some…
In retrospect, the experimental findings on competitive market behavior called for a revival of the old, classical, view of competition as a collective higgling and bargaining process (as opposed to price-taking behaviors) founded on…
We consider the sums $S_n=\xi_1+\cdots+\xi_n$ of independent identically distributed random variables. We do not assume that the $\xi$'s have a finite mean. Under subexponential type conditions on distribution of the summands, we find the…