Related papers: Optimal compromise between incompatible conditiona…
Herding and kernel herding are deterministic methods of choosing samples which summarise a probability distribution. A related task is choosing samples for estimating integrals using Bayesian quadrature. We show that the criterion minimised…
Herding and kernel herding are deterministic methods of choosing samples which summarise a probability distribution. A related task is choosing samples for estimating integrals using Bayesian quadrature. We show that the criterion minimised…
Comparison data arises in many important contexts, e.g. shopping, web clicks, or sports competitions. Typically we are given a dataset of comparisons and wish to train a model to make predictions about the outcome of unseen comparisons. In…
We propose a method with better predictions at extreme values than the standard method of Kriging. We construct our predictor in two ways: by penalizing the mean squared error through conditional bias and by penalizing the conditional…
We study the convergence rates of empirical Bayes posterior distributions for nonparametric and high-dimensional inference. We show that as long as the hyperparameter set is discrete, the empirical Bayes posterior distribution induced by…
In prediction problems, it is common to model the data-generating process and then use a model-based procedure, such as a Bayesian predictive distribution, to quantify uncertainty about the next observation. However, if the posited model is…
Selective classification is a powerful tool for automated decision-making in high-risk scenarios, allowing classifiers to act only when confident and abstain when uncertainty is high. Given a target accuracy, our goal is to minimize…
We consider a Bayesian approach to variable selection in the presence of high dimensional covariates based on a hierarchical model that places prior distributions on the regression coefficients as well as on the model space. We adopt the…
Finite mixture models are frequently used to uncover latent structures in high-dimensional datasets (e.g.\ identifying clusters of patients in electronic health records). The inference of such structures can be performed in a Bayesian…
The ordered allocation sampler is a Gibbs sampler designed to explore the posterior distribution in nonparametric mixture models. It encompasses both infinite mixtures and finite mixtures with random number of components, and it has be…
Kriging and Gaussian Process Regression are statistical methods that allow predicting the outcome of a random process or a random field by using a sample of correlated observations. In other words, the random process or random field is…
Bayesian models quantify uncertainty and facilitate optimal decision-making in downstream applications. For most models, however, practitioners are forced to use approximate inference techniques that lead to sub-optimal decisions due to…
The joint distribution $P(X,Y)$ cannot be determined from its marginals $P(X)$ and $P(Y)$ alone; one also needs one of the conditionals $P(X|Y)$ or $P(Y|X)$. But is there a best guess, given only the marginals? Here we answer this question…
Computational couplings of Markov chains provide a practical route to unbiased Monte Carlo estimation that can utilize parallel computation. However, these approaches depend crucially on chains meeting after a small number of transitions.…
Gibbs sampling methods are standard tools to perform posterior inference for mixture models. These have been broadly classified into two categories: marginal and conditional methods. While conditional samplers are more widely applicable…
In this paper, we present a novel approach to fitting mixture models based on estimating first the posterior distribution of the auxiliary variables that assign each observation to a group in the mixture. The posterior distributions of the…
The problem of adaptive sampling for estimating probability mass functions (pmf) uniformly well is considered. Performance of the sampling strategy is measured in terms of the worst-case mean squared error. A Bayesian variant of the…
We develop a class of non-life reserving models using a stable-1/2 random bridge to simulate the accumulation of paid claims, allowing for an essentially arbitrary choice of a priori distribution for the ultimate loss. Taking an…
We introduce a symmetric random scan Gibbs sampler for scalable Bayesian variable selection that eliminates storage of the full cross-product matrix by computing required quantities on-the-fly. Data-informed proposal weights, constructed…
We consider testing marginal independence versus conditional independence in a trivariate Gaussian setting. The two models are non-nested and their intersection is a union of two marginal independences. We consider two sequences of such…