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There is a well-established theory linking certain semi-Markov chains and continuous-time random walks to time-fractional equations and anomalous diffusion. In this work, we go beyond the semi-Markov framework by considering some…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-02-27 Lorenzo Facciaroni , Costantino Ricciuti , Enrico Scalas

We consider the problem of flexible modeling of higher order Markov chains when an upper bound on the order of the chain is known but the true order and nature of the serial dependence are unknown. We propose Bayesian nonparametric…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-10-21 Abhra Sarkar , David B. Dunson

We give stationary estimates for the derivative of the expectation of a non-smooth function of bounded variation f of the workload in a G/G/1/$\infty$ queue, with respect to a parameter influencing the distribu- tion of the input process.…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-07-16 Pierre Bremaud , Jean-Marc Lasgouttes

In this paper, we develop a new and effective approach to nonparametric quantile regression that accommodates ultrahigh-dimensional data arising from spatio-temporal processes. This approach proves advantageous in staving off computational…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-05-27 Soudeep Deb , Claudia Neves , Subhrajyoty Roy

This article presents new methodology for sample-based Bayesian inference when data are partitioned and communication between the parts is expensive, as arises by necessity in the context of "big data" or by choice in order to take…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-11-01 Marc Box

We consider queueing models, where customers arrive according to a continuous-time binomial process on a finite interval. In this arrival process, a total of $K$ customers arrive in the finite time interval $[0,T]$, where arrival times of…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-12-10 Kaito Hayashi , Yoshiaki Inoue , Tetsuya Takine

We propose a new framework for imposing monotonicity constraints in a Bayesian nonparametric setting based on numerical solutions of stochastic differential equations. We derive a nonparametric model of monotonic functions that allows for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-02-26 Ivan Ustyuzhaninov , Ieva Kazlauskaite , Carl Henrik Ek , Neill D. F. Campbell

This paper proposes a stochastic framework to evaluate the performance of public transit systems under short random service suspensions. We aim to derive closed-form formulations of the mean and variance of the queue length and waiting…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-01-04 Baichuan Mo , Li Jin , Haris N. Koutsopoulos , Zuo-Jun Max Shen , Jinhua Zhao

This paper studies the queue length process in series Jackson networks with external input to the first station. We show that its Markov transition probabilities can be written as a finite sum of non-crossing probabilities, so that…

Probability · Mathematics 2011-07-18 A. B. Dieker , J. Warren

Spatio-temporal hidden Markov models are extremely difficult to estimate because their latent joint distributions are available only in trivial cases. In the estimation phase, these latent distributions are usually substituted with…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-19 Daniele Tancini , Riccardo Rastelli , Francesco Bartolucci

The analysis of non-real-valued data, such as binary time series, has attracted great interest in recent years. This manuscript proposes a post-selection estimator for estimating the coefficient matrices of a high-dimensional generalized…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-03 Dehao Dai , Yunyi Zhang

We present an inference scheme of long timescale, non-exponential kinetics from Molecular Dynamics simulations accelerated by stochastic resetting. Standard simulations provide valuable insight into chemical processes but are limited to…

Chemical Physics · Physics 2024-10-15 Ofir Blumer , Shlomi Reuveni , Barak Hirshberg

Motivated by the need to analyze large, decentralized datasets, distributed Bayesian inference has become a critical research area across multiple fields, including statistics, electrical engineering, and economics. This paper establishes…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-07-08 Bohan Wu , César A. Uribe

Predictive statistical mechanics is a form of inference from available data, without additional assumptions, for predicting reproducible phenomena. By applying it to systems with Hamiltonian dynamics, a problem of predicting the macroscopic…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-09-22 Domagoj Kuic

We consider a model of queues in discrete time, with batch services and arrivals. The case where arrival and service batches both have Bernoulli distributions corresponds to a discrete-time M/M/1 queue, and the case where both have…

Probability · Mathematics 2009-08-10 James B. Martin

We investigate an empirical Bayesian nonparametric approach to a family of linear inverse problems with Gaussian prior and Gaussian noise. We consider a class of Gaussian prior probability measures with covariance operator indexed by a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-02-23 Junxiong Jia , Jigen Peng , Jinghuai Gao

This paper deals with the parametric inference for integrated signals embedded in an additive Gaussian noise and observed at deterministic discrete instants which are not necessarily equidistant. The unknown parameter is multidimensional…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-03-18 Dominique Dehay , Khalil El Waled , Vincent Monsan

In this paper we review recently developed methods for nonparametric Bayesian inference for one-dimensional diffusion models. We discuss different possible prior distributions, computational issues, and asymptotic results.

Methodology · Statistics 2013-05-23 Harry van Zanten

Data on count processes arise in a variety of applications, including longitudinal, spatial and imaging studies measuring count responses. The literature on statistical models for dependent count data is dominated by models built from…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-10-08 Antonio Canale , David B. Dunson

This paper introduces a new sparse spatio-temporal structured Gaussian process regression framework for online and offline Bayesian inference. This is the first framework that gives a time-evolving representation of the interdependencies…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-08-01 Danil Kuzin , Olga Isupova , Lyudmila Mihaylova