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We present online prediction methods for time series that let us explicitly handle nonstationary artifacts (e.g. trend and seasonality) present in most real time series. Specifically, we show that applying appropriate transformations to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-08-28 Christopher Xie , Avleen Bijral , Juan Lavista Ferres

A critical challenge in recommender systems is to establish reliable relationships between offline and online metrics that predict real-world performance. Motivated by recent advances in Pareto front approximation, we introduce a pragmatic…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2025-07-15 Timo Wilm , Philipp Normann

Batch training of machine learning models based on neural networks is now well established, whereas to date streaming methods are largely based on linear models. To go beyond linear in the online setting, nonparametric methods are of…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2020-01-22 Alec Koppel , Amrit Singh Bedi , Ketan Rajawat , Brian M. Sadler

We consider the problem of converting offline estimators into an online predictor or estimator with small extra regret. Formally this is the problem of merging a collection of probability measures over strings of length 1,2,3,... into a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2014-07-15 Marcus Hutter

Online prediction methods are typically presented as serial algorithms running on a single processor. However, in the age of web-scale prediction problems, it is increasingly common to encounter situations where a single processor cannot…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2012-02-01 Ofer Dekel , Ran Gilad-Bachrach , Ohad Shamir , Lin Xiao

This paper addresses distributed parameter estimation in randomized one-hidden-layer neural networks. A group of agents sequentially receive measurements of an unknown parameter that is only partially observable to them. In this paper, we…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2020-03-23 Yinsong Wang , Shahin Shahrampour

This paper proposes a simple and efficient estimation procedure for the model with non-ignorable missing data studied by Morikawa and Kim (2016). Their semiparametrically efficient estimator requires explicit nonparametric estimation and so…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-01-15 Chunrong Ai , Oliver Linton , Zheng Zhang

Gaussian graphical models are widely used to represent correlations among entities but remain vulnerable to data corruption. In this work, we introduce a modified trimmed-inner-product algorithm to robustly estimate the covariance in an…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-09-19 Tong Yao , Shreyas Sundaram

In some estimation problems, especially in applications dealing with information theory, signal processing and biology, theory provides us with additional information allowing us to restrict the parameter space to a finite number of points.…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-07-25 Christine Choirat , Raffaello Seri

We extend the recently introduced regularization/Bayesian System Identification procedures to the estimation of time-varying systems. Specifically, we consider an online setting, in which new data become available at given time steps. The…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2016-09-26 Giulia Prando , Diego Romeres , Alessandro Chiuso

The paper studies the problem of distributed parameter estimation in multi-agent networks with exponential family observation statistics. A certainty-equivalence type distributed estimator of the consensus + innovations form is proposed in…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-02-04 Soummya Kar , Jose Moura

The semivarying coefficient models are widely used in the application of finance, economics, medical science and many other areas. The functional coefficients are commonly estimated by local smoothing methods, e.g. local linear estimator.…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-01-01 Heng Peng , Chuanlong Xie , Jingxin Zhao

The vast majority of optimization and online learning algorithms today require some prior information about the data (often in the form of bounds on gradients or on the optimal parameter value). When this information is not available, these…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-06-07 Ashok Cutkosky , Kwabena Boahen

This paper introduces a new algorithm to approximate smoothed additive functionals for partially observed stochastic differential equations. This method relies on a recent procedure which allows to compute such approximations online, i.e.…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-03-14 Pierre Gloaguen , Marie-Pierre Etienne , Sylvain Le Corff

We propose novel parameter estimation algorithms for a class of dynamical systems with nonlinear parametrization. The class is initially restricted to smooth monotonic functions with respect to a linear functional of the parameters. We show…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Ivan Tyukin , Danil Prokhorov , Cees van Leeuwen

Covariance parameter estimation of Gaussian processes is analyzed in an asymptotic framework. The spatial sampling is a randomly perturbed regular grid and its deviation from the perfect regular grid is controlled by a single scalar…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-12-09 François Bachoc

This paper develops the first online algorithms for estimating the spectral density function -- a fundamental object of interest in time series analysis -- that satisfies the three core requirements of streaming inference: fixed memory,…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-17 Shahriar Hasnat Kazi , Niall Adams , Edward A. K. Cohen

e consider the experimental design problem in an online environment, an important practical task for reducing the variance of estimates in randomized experiments which allows for greater precision, and in turn, improved decision making. In…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-03-07 David Arbour , Drew Dimmery , Tung Mai , Anup Rao

Online system identification is the estimation of parameters of a dynamical system, such as mass or friction coefficients, for each measurement of the input and output signals. Here, the nonlinear stochastic differential equation of a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-18 Wouter M Kouw

The paper introduces a new estimation method for the standard linear regression model. The procedure is not driven by the optimisation of any objective function rather, it is a simple weighted average of slopes from observation pairs. The…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-02-27 Felix Chan , Laszlo Matyas