Related papers: Probabilistic Models for Daily Peak Loads at Distr…
Short-term forecasts of energy consumption are invaluable for the operation of energy systems, including low voltage electricity networks. However, network loads are challenging to predict when highly desegregated to small numbers of…
This short communication uses a simple experiment to show that fitting to a power law distribution by using graphical methods based on linear fit on the log-log scale is biased and inaccurate. It shows that using maximum likelihood…
Load forecasts have become an integral part of energy security. Due to the various influencing factors that can be considered in such a forecast, there is also a wide range of models that attempt to integrate these parameters into a system…
Battery energy storage systems can be used for peak demand reduction in power systems, leading to significant economic benefits. Two practical challenges are 1) accurately determining the peak load days and hours and 2) quantifying and…
Accurate and reliable electricity load forecasts are becoming increasingly important as the share of intermittent resources in the system increases. Distribution System Operators (DSOs) are called to accurately forecast their production and…
Electrification of residential heating and transporta- tion has the potential to overload transformers in distribution feeders. Strategic scheduling of transformer upgrades to antici- pate increasing loads can avoid operational failures and…
Probabilistic model checking can provide formal guarantees on the behavior of stochastic models relating to a wide range of quantitative properties, such as runtime, energy consumption or cost. But decision making is typically with respect…
Electrical Distribution Systems are extensively penetrated with Distributed Energy Resources (DERs) to cater the energy demands with the general perception that it enhances the system's resilience. However, integration of DERs may adversely…
As the number of charging Plug-in Electric Vehicles (PEVs) increase, due to the limited power capacity of the distribution feeders and the sensitivity of the mid-way distribution transformers to the excessive load, it is crucial to control…
Distribution system end users are transforming from passive to active participants, marked by the push towards widespread adoption of edge-level Distributed Energy Resources (DERs). This paper addresses the challenges in distribution system…
We use simulation to compare different power flow models in the process of charging electric vehicles (EVs) by considering their random arrivals, their stochastic demand for energy at charging stations, and the characteristics of the…
The ever increasing penetration of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles in distribution systems has triggered the need for a more accurate and at the same time fast solution to probabilistic distribution power flow problem. In this paper a…
Reliable and accurate distribution system modeling, including the secondary network, is essential in examining distribution system performance with high penetration of distributed energy resources (DERs). This paper presents a highly…
Power-law distributions occur in many situations of scientific interest and have significant consequences for our understanding of natural and man-made phenomena. Unfortunately, the detection and characterization of power laws is…
Probabilistic load forecasting (PLF) is a key component in the extended tool-chain required for efficient management of smart energy grids. Neural networks are widely considered to achieve improved prediction performances, supporting highly…
Efficient load forecasting is needed to ensure better observability in the distribution networks, whereas such forecasting is made possible by an increasing number of smart meter installations. Because distribution networks include a large…
The power system is undergoing rapid evolution with the roll-out of advanced metering infrastructure and local energy applications (e.g. electric vehicles) as well as the increasing penetration of intermittent renewable energy at both…
An outage detection framework for power distribution networks is proposed. Given the tree structure of the distribution system, a method is developed combining the use of real-time power flow measurements on edges of the tree with load…
The increasing frequency of extreme weather events poses significant risks to power distribution systems, leading to widespread outages and severe economic and social consequences. This paper presents a novel simulation framework for…
We present a comparative study of different probabilistic forecasting techniques on the task of predicting the electrical load of secondary substations and cabinets located in a low voltage distribution grid, as well as their aggregated…