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We consider the pricing problem related to payoffs that can have discontinuities of polynomial growth. The asset price dynamic is modeled within the Black and Scholes framework characterized by a stochastic volatility term driven by a…
The Brier score is frequently used by meteorologists to measure the skill of binary probabilistic forecasts. We show, however, that in simple idealised cases it gives counterintuitive results. We advocate the use of an alternative measure…
This paper does not suppose a priori that the evolution of the price of a financial asset is a semimartingale. Since possible strategies of investors are self-financing, previous prices are forced to be finite quadratic variation processes.…
In this paper, we focus on the estimation of historical volatility of asset prices from high-frequency data. Stochastic volatility models pose a major statistical challenge: since in reality historical volatility is not observable, its…
This paper is devoted to the pricing of Barrier options by optimal quadratic quantization method. From a known useful representation of the premium of barrier options one deduces an algorithm similar to one used to estimate nonlinear filter…
We study the problem of coalitional manipulation---where $k$ manipulators try to manipulate an election on $m$ candidates---under general scoring rules, with a focus on the Borda protocol. We do so both in the weighted and unweighted…
We consider the classical problem of building an arbitrage-free implied volatility surface from bid-ask quotes. We design a fast numerical procedure, for which we prove the convergence, based on the Sinkhorn algorithm that has been recently…
Within a contest there is some probability M_i(t) that contestant i will be the winner, given information available at time t, and M_i(t) must be a martingale in t. Assume continuous paths, to capture the idea that relevant information is…
In this paper, we derive a temporal arbitrage policy for storage via reinforcement learning. Real-time price arbitrage is an important source of revenue for storage units, but designing good strategies have proven to be difficult because of…
In this paper we study arbitrage theory of financial markets in the absence of a num\'eraire both in discrete and continuous time. In our main results, we provide a generalization of the classical equivalence between no unbounded profits…
We provide a nonparametric method for the computation of instantaneous multivariate volatility for continuous semi-martingales, which is based on Fourier analysis. The co-volatility is reconstructed as a stochastic function of time by…
The calibration of volatility models from observable option prices is a fundamental problem in quantitative finance. The most common approach among industry practitioners is based on the celebrated Dupire's formula [6], which requires the…
The mean objective of this paper is to derive an explicit formula for a price of an European option associated to the underlying delayed stock price which follows a linear differential equation with a general delay in the drift term. We use…
We show that, for the purpose of pricing Swaptions, the Swap rate and the corresponding Forward rates can be considered lognormal under a single martingale measure. Swaptions can then be priced as options on a basket of lognormal assets and…
We develop a stochastic calculus that makes it easy to capture a variety of predictable transformations of semimartingales such as changes of variables, stochastic integrals, and their compositions. The framework offers a unified treatment…
In this study, we consider the asset pricing under model uncertainty with discrete time and states structure. For the single-period securities model, we give a novel definition of arbitrage under a family of probability, and explore of its…
This paper aims to provide practitioners of causal mediation analysis with a better understanding of estimation options. We take as inputs two familiar strategies (weighting and model-based prediction) and a simple way of combining them…
We propose a method to bound the expectation of the supremum of the price process in stochastic volatility models. It can be applied, for example, to the rough Bergomi model, avoiding the need to discuss finiteness of higher moments. Our…
We study the utilitarian distortion of social choice mechanisms under the recently proposed learning-augmented framework where some (possibly unreliable) predicted information about the preferences of the agents is given as input. In…
We study the Fundamental Theorem of Asset Pricing for a general financial market under Knightian Uncertainty. We adopt a functional analytic approach which require neither specific assumptions on the class of priors $\mathcal{P}$ nor on the…