Related papers: An MCMC-free approach to post-selective inference

In this work, we introduce a novel class of adaptive Monte Carlo methods, called adaptive independent sticky MCMC algorithms, for efficient sampling from a generic target probability density function (pdf). The new class of algorithms…

In this paper, we propose a new stochastic optimization algorithm for Bayesian inference based on multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) methods. In Bayesian statistics, biased estimators of the model evidence have been often used as stochastic…

We prove a bound on the finite sample error of sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) on static spaces using the $L_2$ distance between interpolating distributions and the mixing times of Markov kernels. This result is unique in that it is the first…

Rejection Sampling is a fundamental Monte-Carlo method. It is used to sample from distributions admitting a probability density function which can be evaluated exactly at any given point, albeit at a high computational cost. However,…

We study a version of the proximal gradient algorithm for which the gradient is intractable and is approximated by Monte Carlo methods (and in particular Markov Chain Monte Carlo). We derive conditions on the step size and the Monte Carlo…

In this paper, we have established a new framework of truncated inverse sampling for estimating mean values of non-negative random variables such as binomial, Poisson, hyper-geometrical, and bounded variables. We have derived explicit…

We advance the theory of parametric bootstrap in constructing highly efficient empirical best (EB) prediction intervals of small area means. The coverage error of such a prediction interval is of the order $O(m^{-3/2})$, where $m$ is the…

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods asymptotically sample from complex probability distributions. The pseudo-marginal MCMC framework only requires an unbiased estimator of the unnormalized probability distribution function to construct…

Monte Carlo methods -- such as Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and piecewise deterministic Markov process (PDMP) samplers -- provide asymptotically exact estimators of expectations under a target distribution. There is growing interest in…

Post-selection inference consists in providing statistical guarantees, based on a data set, that are robust to a prior model selection step on the same data set. In this paper, we address an instance of the post-selection-inference problem,…

We introduce a new algorithm for approximate inference that combines reparametrization, Markov chain Monte Carlo and variational methods. We construct a very flexible implicit variational distribution synthesized by an arbitrary Markov…

In this work, we examine sampling problems with non-smooth potentials. We propose a novel Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm for sampling from non-smooth potentials. We provide a non-asymptotical analysis of our algorithm and establish a…

When analyzing data researchers make some decisions that are either arbitrary, based on subjective beliefs about the data generating process, or for which equally justifiable alternative choices could have been made. This wide range of…

Consider a central problem in randomized approximation schemes that use a Monte Carlo approach. Given a sequence of independent, identically distributed random variables $X_1,X_2,\ldots$ with mean $\mu$ and standard deviation at most $c…

Consider the {$\ell_{\alpha}$} regularized linear regression, also termed Bridge regression. For $\alpha\in (0,1)$, Bridge regression enjoys several statistical properties of interest such as sparsity and near-unbiasedness of the estimates…

We present a new method for conducting Monte Carlo inference in graphical models which combines explicit search with generalized importance sampling. The idea is to reduce the variance of importance sampling by searching for significant…

Many probabilistic models of interest in scientific computing and machine learning have expensive, black-box likelihoods that prevent the application of standard techniques for Bayesian inference, such as MCMC, which would require access to…

This paper addresses a key limitation in existing counterfactual inference methods for Markov Decision Processes (MDPs). Current approaches assume a specific causal model to make counterfactuals identifiable. However, there are usually many…

Significant attention has been given to minimizing a penalized least squares criterion for estimating sparse solutions to large linear systems of equations. The penalty is responsible for inducing sparsity and the natural choice is the…

This paper proves, in very general settings, that convex risk minimization is a procedure to select a unique conditional probability model determined by the classification problem. Unlike most previous work, we give results that are general…