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Extreme weather is one of the main mechanisms through which climate change will directly impact human society. Coping with such change as a global community requires markedly improved understanding of how global warming drives extreme…

Computational Physics · Physics 2019-09-18 Adam Rupe , Karthik Kashinath , Nalini Kumar , Victor Lee , Prabhat , James P. Crutchfield

In this paper the nonparametric quantile regression model is considered in a location-scale context. The asymptotic properties of the empirical independence process based on covariates and estimated residuals are investigated. In particular…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-09-27 Melanie Birke , Natalie Neumeyer , Stanislav Volgushev

The study of geometric extremes, where extremal dependence properties are inferred from the deterministic limiting shapes of scaled sample clouds, provides an exciting approach to modelling the extremes of multivariate data. These shapes,…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-09-16 Callum J. R. Murphy-Barltrop , Reetam Majumder , Jordan Richards

We study four different approaches to model time-dependent extremal behavior: dynamics introduced by (a) a state-space model (SSM), (b) a shot-noise-type process with GPD marginals, (c) a copula-based autoregressive model with GPD…

Applications · Statistics 2016-03-01 Bernhard Spangl , Sascha Desmettre , Peter Ruckdeschel

The spatial modeling of extreme snow is important for adequate risk management in Alpine and high altitude countries. A natural approach to such modeling is through the theory of max-stable processes, an infinite-dimensional extension of…

Applications · Statistics 2011-12-01 Juliette Blanchet , Anthony C. Davison

We propose a new class of extreme-value copulas which are extreme-value limits of conditional normal models. Conditional normal models are generalizations of conditional independence models, where the dependence among observed variables is…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-02-16 Pavel Krupskii , Marc G. Genton

Conditional copula models allow dependence structures to vary with observed covariates while preserving a separation between marginal behavior and association. We study the uniform asymptotic behavior of kernel-weighted local likelihood…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-01-06 Mathias Nthiani Muia

Both marginal and dependence features must be described when modelling the extremes of a stationary time series. There are standard approaches to marginal modelling, but long- and short-range dependence of extremes may both appear. In…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-03-17 Thomas Lugrin , Anthony C. Davison , Jonathan A. Tawn

Spatially isotropic max-stable processes have been used to model extreme spatial or space-time observations. One prominent model is the Brown-Resnick process, which has been successfully fitted to time series, spatial data and space-time…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-06-08 Sven Buhl , Claudia Klüppelberg

A variety of methods have been proposed for inference about extreme dependence for multivariate or spatially-indexed stochastic processes and time series. Most of these proceed by first transforming data to some specific extreme value…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-05-22 James E. Johndrow , Robert L. Wolpert

Conditionally specified models are often used to describe complex multivariate data. Such models assume implicit structures on the extremes. So far, no methodology exists for calculating extremal characteristics of conditional models since…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-02-24 Stan Tendijck , Jonathan Tawn , Philip Jonathan

A variational model of pressure-dependent plasticity employing a time-incremental setting is introduced. A novel formulation of the dissipation potential allows one to construct the condensed energy in a variationally consistent manner. For…

Analysis of PDEs · Mathematics 2023-05-31 Florian Behr , Georg Dolzmann , Klaus Hackl , Ghina Jezdan

The deformation problem for a transversely isotropic elastic layer bonded to a rigid substrate and coated with a very thin elastic layer made of another transversely isotropic material is considered. The leading-order asymptotic models (for…

Analysis of PDEs · Mathematics 2015-04-28 Ivan Argatov , Gennady Mishuris

Recent years have seen a huge development in spatial modelling and prediction methodology, driven by the increased availability of remote-sensing data and the reduced cost of distributed-processing technology. It is well known that…

Computation · Statistics 2020-02-18 Andrew Zammit-Mangion , Jonathan Rougier

We derived here in a systematic way, and for a large class of scaling regimes, asymptotic models for the propagation of internal waves at the interface between two layers of immiscible fluids of different densities, under the rigid lid…

Analysis of PDEs · Mathematics 2007-12-27 Jerry L. Bona , David Lannes , Jean-Claude Saut

Currently available models for spatial extremes suffer either from inflexibility in the dependence structures that they can capture, lack of scalability to high dimensions, or in most cases, both of these. We present an approach to spatial…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-06-17 Jennifer L. Wadsworth , Jonathan Tawn

The description of complex physical phenomena often involves sophisticated models that rely on a large number of parameters, with many dimensions and scales. One practical way to simplify that kind of models is to discard some of the…

Soft Condensed Matter · Physics 2025-11-11 Simone Rusconi , Christina Schenk , Razvan Ceuca , Arghir Zarnescu , Elena Akhmatskaya

Regularly varying stochastic processes model extreme dependence between process values at different locations and/or time points. For such processes we propose a two-step parameter estimation of the extremogram, when some part of the domain…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-08-28 Sven Buhl , Claudia Klüppelberg

We introduce a notion of emergence for coarse-grained macroscopic variables associated with highly-multivariate microscopic dynamical processes, in the context of a coupled dynamical environment. Dynamical independence instantiates the…

Adaptation and Self-Organizing Systems · Physics 2023-07-26 Lionel Barnett , Anil K. Seth

While most spatial data can be modeled with the assumption that distant points are uncorrelated, some problems require dependence at both far and short distances. We introduce a model to directly incorporate dependence in phenomena that…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-07-04 Joshua Hewitt , Jennifer A. Hoeting , James Done , Erin Towler