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Related papers: A Tutorial on Bridge Sampling

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We study the implementation of Automatic Differentiation Variational inference (ADVI) for Bayesian inference on regression models with bridge penalization. The bridge approach uses $\ell_{\alpha}$ norm, with $\alpha \in (0, +\infty)$ to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-08-08 Carlos Tadeu Pagani Zanini , Helio dos Santos Migon , Ronaldo Dias

Estimation of finite mixture models when the mixing distribution support is unknown is an important problem. This paper gives a new approach based on a marginal likelihood for the unknown support. Motivated by a Bayesian Dirichlet prior…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-02-11 Ryan Martin

The purpose of this article is to develop a general parametric estimation theory that allows the derivation of the limit distribution of estimators in non-regular models where the true parameter value may lie on the boundary of the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-11-28 Junichiro Yoshida , Nakahiro Yoshida

Models with intractable likelihood functions arise in areas including network analysis and spatial statistics, especially those involving Gibbs random fields. Posterior parameter es timation in these settings is termed a doubly-intractable…

Computation · Statistics 2018-10-16 Lampros Bouranis , Nial Friel , Florian Maire

We introduce a path sampling method for obtaining statistical properties of an arbitrary stochastic dynamics. The method works by decomposing a trajectory in time, estimating the probability of satisfying a progress constraint, modifying…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-06-04 Nicholas Guttenberg , Aaron R. Dinner , Jonathan Weare

This paper motivates the use of random-bridges -- stochastic processes conditioned to take target distributions at fixed timepoints -- in the realm of generative modelling. Herein, random-bridges can act as stochastic transports between two…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-07 Stefano Goria , Levent A. Mengütürk , Murat C. Mengütürk , Berkan Sesen

We introduce a simple but effective method for managing risk in model-based reinforcement learning with trajectory sampling that involves probabilistic safety constraints and balancing of optimism in the face of epistemic uncertainty and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-09-12 Marin Vlastelica , Sebastian Blaes , Cristina Pineri , Georg Martius

We consider the exact path sampling of the squared Bessel process and some other continuous-time Markov processes, such as the CIR model, constant elasticity of variance diffusion model, and hypergeometric diffusions, which can all be…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2009-10-28 Roman N. Makarov , Devin Glew

Models for which the likelihood function can be evaluated only up to a parameter-dependent unknown normalising constant, such as Markov random field models, are used widely in computer science, statistical physics, spatial statistics, and…

Computation · Statistics 2016-02-12 Richard G. Everitt , Adam M. Johansen , Ellen Rowing , Melina Evdemon-Hogan

This paper surveys some well-established approaches on the approximation of Bayes factors used in Bayesian model choice, mostly as covered in Chen et al. (2000). Our focus here is on methods that are based on importance sampling strategies…

Computation · Statistics 2009-10-14 Jean-Michel Marin , Christian P. Robert

Data driven modelling is vital to many analyses at collider experiments, however the derived inference of physical properties becomes subject to details of the model fitting procedure. This work brings a principled Bayesian picture, based…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2023-05-23 David Yallup , Will Handley

Sample size derivation is a crucial element of the planning phase of any confirmatory trial. A sample size is typically derived based on constraints on the maximal acceptable type I error rate and a minimal desired power. Here, power…

This study proposes a learning-based method with domain adaptability for input estimation of vehicle suspension systems. In a crowdsensing setting for bridge health monitoring, vehicles carry sensors to collect samples of the bridge's…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-04-05 Liam M. Cronin , Soheil Sadeghi Eshkevari , Debarshi Sen , Shamim N. Pakzad

Exponential random graph models are a class of widely used exponential family models for social networks. The topological structure of an observed network is modelled by the relative prevalence of a set of local sub-graph configurations…

Computation · Statistics 2013-01-21 Alberto Caimo , Nial Friel

The likelihood function is central to both frequentist and Bayesian formulations of parametric statistical inference, and large-sample approximations to the sampling distributions of estimators and test statistics, and to posterior…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-04-05 Anthony C. Davison , Nancy Reid

Importance sampling has been known as a powerful tool to reduce the variance of Monte Carlo estimator for rare event simulation. Based on the criterion of minimizing the variance of Monte Carlo estimator within a parametric family, we…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-02-11 Cheng-Der Fuh , Huei-Wen Teng , Ren-Her Wang

Bridge sampling is an effective Monte Carlo method for estimating the ratio of normalizing constants of two probability densities, a routine computational problem in statistics, physics, chemistry, and other fields. The Monte Carlo error of…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-06-11 Lazhi Wang , David E. Jones , Xiao-Li Meng

Many scientifically well-motivated statistical models in natural, engineering and environmental sciences are specified through a generative process, but in some cases it may not be possible to write down a likelihood for these models…

Computation · Statistics 2018-10-10 Sanjay Chaudhuri , Subhro Ghosh , David J. Nott , Kim Cuc Pham

We propose a Bayesian elastic net that uses empirical likelihood and develop an efficient tuning of Hamiltonian Monte Carlo for posterior sampling. The proposed model relaxes the assumptions on the identity of the error distribution,…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-07-20 Chul Moon , Adel Bedoui

Sampling complex free energy surfaces is one of the main challenges of modern atomistic simulation methods. The presence of kinetic bottlenecks in such surfaces often renders a direct approach useless. A popular strategy is to identify a…

Computational Physics · Physics 2019-09-25 Luigi Bonati , Yue-Yu Zhang , Michele Parrinello