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Simulating the effects of skincare products on face is a potential new way to communicate the efficacy of skincare products in skin diagnostics and product recommendations. Furthermore, such simulations enable one to anticipate his/her skin…

Several energy management applications rely on accurate photovoltaic generation forecasts. Common metrics like mean absolute error or root-mean-square error, omit error-distribution details needed for stochastic optimization. In addition,…

A computational technique borrowed from the physical sciences is introduced to obtain accurate closed-form approximations for the transition probability of arbitrary diffusion processes. Within the path integral framework the same technique…

Probabilistic prediction aims to compute predictive distributions rather than single point predictions. These distributions enable practitioners to quantify uncertainty, compute risk, and detect outliers. However, most probabilistic methods…

Crowdsourcing has been successfully applied in many domains including astronomy, cryptography and biology. In order to test its potential for useful application in a Smart Grid context, this paper investigates the extent to which a crowd…

As input data distributions evolve, the predictive performance of machine learning models tends to deteriorate. In practice, new input data tend to come without target labels. Then, state-of-the-art techniques model input data distributions…

Probabilistic forecasts are becoming more and more available. How should they be used and communicated? What are the obstacles to their use in practice? I review experience with five problems where probabilistic forecasting played an…

The use of residential photovoltaics has increased dramatically in recent years. With battery systems becoming more affordable, the optimal operation of a photovoltaic-battery system can bring significant savings to households. Optimal…

Estimation of the generated power of renewable energy resources is in general important for planning operations as well as demand balance and power quality. This paper addresses the problem of the estimation of the short-term (3-hour ahead)…

Purpose: Trading on electricity markets occurs such that the price settlement takes place before delivery, often day-ahead. In practice, these prices are highly volatile as they largely depend upon a range of variables such as electricity…

Rising penetration levels of (residential) photovoltaic (PV) power as distributed energy resource pose a number of challenges to the electricity infrastructure. High quality, general tools to provide accurate forecasts of power production…

This paper proposes a general method to handle forecasts exposed to behavioural bias by finding appropriate outside views, in our case corporate sales forecasts of analysts. The idea is to find reference classes, i.e. peer groups, for each…

Ahead-of-time forecasting of incident solar-irradiance on a panel is indicative of expected energy yield and is essential for efficient grid distribution and planning. Traditionally, these forecasts are based on meteorological physics…

Seasonal climate forecasts are being used increasingly across a range of application sectors. A recent UK governmental report asked: How good are seasonal climate forecasts on a scale of 1-5 (where 5 is very good), and how good can we…

We empirically investigated the relationships between the degree of efficiency and the predictability in financial time-series data. The Hurst exponent was used as the measurement of the degree of efficiency, and the hit rate calculated…

Probabilistic forecasting of electricity load curves is of fundamental importance for effective scheduling and decision making in the increasingly volatile and competitive energy markets. We propose a novel approach to construct…

Electricity price forecasting is a critical tool for the efficient operation of power systems and for supporting informed decision-making by market participants. This paper explores a novel methodology aimed at improving the accuracy of…

This work deals with the problem of estimating a photovoltaic generation forecasting model in scenarios where measurements of meteorological variables (i.e. solar irradiance and temperature) at the plant site are not available. A novel…

By observing their environment as well as other traffic participants, humans are enabled to drive road vehicles safely. Vehicle passengers, however, perceive a notable difference between non-experienced and experienced drivers. In…

Event prediction is the ability of anticipating future events, i.e., future real-world occurrences, and aims to support the user in deciding on actions that change future events towards a desired state. An event prediction method learns the…