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We consider the problem of belief aggregation: given a group of individual agents with probabilistic beliefs over a set of uncertain events, formulate a sensible consensus or aggregate probability distribution over these events. Researchers…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-02-08 David M. Pennock , Michael P. Wellman

Tasks such as social network analysis, human behavior recognition, or modeling biochemical reactions, can be solved elegantly by using the probabilistic inference framework. However, standard probabilistic inference algorithms work at a…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2018-12-11 Stefan Lüdtke , Max Schröder , Frank Krüger , Sebastian Bader , Thomas Kirste

We study the outcomes of information aggregation in online social networks. Our main result is that networks with certain realistic structural properties avoid information cascades and enable a population to effectively aggregate…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2014-08-25 Michal Feldman , Nicole Immorlica , Brendan Lucier , S. Matthew Weinberg

The ability of a society to make the right decisions on relevant matters relies on its capability to properly aggregate the noisy information spread across the individuals it is made of. In this paper we study the information aggregation…

Physics and Society · Physics 2015-06-16 Giacomo Livan , Matteo Marsili

Randomness in scientific estimation is generally assumed to arise from unmeasured or uncontrolled factors. However, when combining subjective probability estimates, heterogeneity stemming from people's cognitive or information diversity is…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-09-14 Ville A. Satopää , Robin Pemantle , Lyle H. Ungar

We consider \emph{plurality consensus} in a network of $n$ nodes. Initially, each node has one of $k$ opinions. The nodes execute a (randomized) distributed protocol to agree on the plurality opinion (the opinion initially supported by the…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2016-02-04 Petra Berenbrink , Tom Friedetzky , Peter Kling , Frederik Mallmann-Trenn , Chris Wastell

Current decision support systems address domains that are heterogeneous in nature and becoming progressively larger. Such systems often require the input of expert judgement about a variety of different fields and an intensive computational…

Other Statistics · Statistics 2017-07-10 Manuele Leonelli , Eva Riccomagno , Jim Q. Smith

We propose a topic modeling approach to the prediction of preferences in pairwise comparisons. We develop a new generative model for pairwise comparisons that accounts for multiple shared latent rankings that are prevalent in a population…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2015-01-27 Weicong Ding , Prakash Ishwar , Venkatesh Saligrama

The voter model consists of a set of agents whose opinion is a binary variable. At each time step, an agent along with a social neighbor is selected and the agent imitates the social neighbor at the next time step. In this paper, we study a…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-07-06 Hsin-Lun Li

A new class of general exponential ranking models is introduced which we label angle-based models for ranking data. A consensus score vector is assumed, which assigns scores to a set of items, where the scores reflect a consensus view of…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-12-27 Hang Xu , Mayer Alvo , Philip L. H. Yu

Millions of people express themselves on public social media, such as Twitter. Through their posts, these people may reveal themselves as potentially valuable sources of information. For example, real-time information about an event might…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2014-04-09 Jalal Mahmud , Michelle Zhou , Nimrod Megiddo , Jeffrey Nichols , Clemens Drews

We consider an aggregated human-AI collaboration aimed at generating a joint interpretable model. The model takes the form of Boolean decision rules, where human input is provided in the form of logical conditions or as partial templates.…

Human-Computer Interaction · Computer Science 2023-06-26 Rahul Nair

This paper gives game-theoretic versions of several results on "merging of opinions" obtained in measure-theoretic probability and algorithmic randomness theory. An advantage of the game-theoretic versions over the measure-theoretic results…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Vladimir Vovk

Rule learning approaches for knowledge graph completion are efficient, interpretable and competitive to purely neural models. The rule aggregation problem is concerned with finding one plausibility score for a candidate fact which was…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-09-04 Patrick Betz , Stefan Lüdtke , Christian Meilicke , Heiner Stuckenschmidt

Respecting minority opinions is vital in solving social problems. However, minority opinions are often ignored in general majority rules. To build consensus on pluralistic values and make social choices that consider minority opinions, we…

General Economics · Economics 2021-02-24 Takeshi Kato , Yasuhiro Asa , Misa Owa

There are many examples of 'wisdom of the crowd' effects in which the large number of participants imparts confidence in the collective judgment of the crowd. But how do we form an aggregated judgment when the size of the crowd is limited?…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2018-10-24 Giuseppe Nebbione , Derek Doran , Srikanth Nadella , Brandon Minnery

In statistical decision theory, a model is said to be Pareto optimal (or admissible) if no other model carries less risk for at least one state of nature while presenting no more risk for others. How can you rationally aggregate/combine a…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2021-12-13 Hamed Hamze Bajgiran , Houman Owhadi

Public opinion polling is usually done by random sampling from the entire population, treating individual opinions as independent. In the real world, individuals' opinions are often correlated, e.g., among friends in a social network. In…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2016-11-28 Weiran Huang , Liang Li , Wei Chen

This paper addresses decision-aiding problems that involve multiple objectives and uncertain states of the world. Inspired by the capability approach, we focus on cases where a policy maker chooses an act that, combined with a state of the…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2024-05-24 Nicolas Fayard , David Ríos Insua , Alexis Tsoukiàs

Given a set of conflicting arguments, there can exist multiple plausible opinions about which arguments should be accepted, rejected, or deemed undecided. We study the problem of how multiple such judgments can be aggregated. We define the…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2017-06-20 Edmond Awad , Richard Booth , Fernando Tohme , Iyad Rahwan