Related papers: Modeling the Ellsberg Paradox by Argument Strength
Given a set of people and a set of events they attend, we address the problem of measuring connectedness or tie strength between each pair of persons given that attendance at mutual events gives an implicit social network between people. We…
This paper introduces epistemic graphs as a generalization of the epistemic approach to probabilistic argumentation. In these graphs, an argument can be believed or disbelieved up to a given degree, thus providing a more fine--grained…
Humans currently use arguments for explaining choices which are already made, or for evaluating potential choices. Each potential choice has usually pros and cons of various strengths. In spite of the usefulness of arguments in a decision…
Established frameworks to understand problems with reproducibility in science begin with the relationship between our understanding of the prior probability of a claim and the statistical certainty that should be demanded of it, and explore…
Brandenburger, Friedenberg, and Keisler provide an epistemic characterization of iterated admissibility (i.e., iterated deletion of weakly dominated strategies) where uncertainty is represented using LPSs (lexicographic probability…
In the interpretation of experimental data, one is actually looking for plausible explanations. We look for a measure of plausibility, with which we can compare different possible explanations, and which can be combined when there are…
There have been a number of developments in measuring inconsistency in logic-based representations of knowledge. In contrast, the development of inconsistency measures for computational models of argument has been limited. To address this…
Jakob Bernoulli, working in the late 17th century, identified a gap in contemporary probability theory. He cautioned that it was inadequate to specify force of proof (probability of provability) for some kinds of uncertain arguments. After…
Despite the impressive success of quantum structures to model long-standing human judgement and decision puzzles, the {\it quantum cognition research programme} still faces challenges about its explanatory power. Indeed, quantum models…
In this article we provide a rebuttal against the possible perception that a single number, such as the Likelihood Ratio, can provide an objective, authoritative or definitive weight of evidence. We also illustrate the extent to which…
We are interested in the problem of robust parametric estimation of a density from $n$ i.i.d. observations. By using a practice-oriented procedure based on robust tests, we build an estimator for which we establish non-asymptotic risk…
Language is not only used to transmit neutral information; we often seek to persuade by arguing in favor of a particular view. Persuasion raises a number of challenges for classical accounts of belief updating, as information cannot be…
We provide here a general mathematical framework to model attitudes towards ambiguity which uses the formalism of quantum theory as a ``purely mathematical formalism, detached from any physical interpretation''. We show that the…
Regression on observational data can fail to capture a causal relationship in the presence of unobserved confounding. Confounding strength measures this mismatch, but estimating it requires itself additional assumptions. A common assumption…
Empirical evidence has confirmed that quantum effects occur frequently also outside the microscopic domain, while quantum structures satisfactorily model various situations in several areas of science, including biological, cognitive and…
The relationship between communicated language and intended meaning is often probabilistic and sensitive to context. Numerous strategies attempt to estimate such a mapping, often leveraging recursive Bayesian models of communication. In…
Agents' judgment depends on perception and previous knowledge. Assuming that previous knowledge depends on perception, we can say that judgment depends on perception. So, if judgment depends on perception, can agents judge that they have…
The features of a logically sound approach to a theory of statistical reasoning are discussed. A particular approach that satisfies these criteria is reviewed. This is seen to involve selection of a model, model checking, elicitation of a…
Motivated by the forensic problem of determining the strength of evidence of a continuously distributed measurement of evidence, in the situation of composite hypotheses of the prosecutor and the defence concerning a parameter of a…
This paper presents a plausible reasoning system to illustrate some broad issues in knowledge representation: dualities between different reasoning forms, the difficulty of unifying complementary reasoning styles, and the approximate nature…