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This paper develops computationally feasible methods for estimating random effects models in the context of regression modelling of multiple independent time series of discrete valued counts in which there is serial dependence. Given…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-06-10 W. T. M. Dunsmuir , C. McKendry , R. T. Dean

The empirical likelihood inference is extended to a class of semiparametric models for stationary, weakly dependent series. A partially linear single-index regression is used for the conditional mean of the series given its past, and the…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-05-18 Marie Du Roy de Chaumaray , Matthieu Marbac , Valentin Patilea

Additive regression models are actively researched in the statistical field because of their usefulness in the analysis of responses determined by non-linear relationships with multivariate predictors. In this kind of statistical models,…

Applications · Statistics 2018-03-14 German A. Schnaidt Grez , Brani Vidakovic

Modeling nonstationary processes is of paramount importance to many scientific disciplines including environmental science, ecology, and finance, among others. Consequently, flexible methodology that provides accurate estimation across a…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-08-13 Wen-Hsi Yang , Scott H. Holan , Christopher K. Wikle

Partially observed Markov process (POMP) models, also known as hidden Markov models or state space models, are ubiquitous tools for time series analysis. The R package pomp provides a very flexible framework for Monte Carlo statistical…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-05-27 Aaron A. King , Dao Nguyen , Edward L. Ionides

The raking-ratio method is a statistical and computational method which adjusts the empirical measure to match the true probability of sets of a finite partition. We study the asymptotic behavior of the raking-ratio empirical process…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-05-07 Mickael Albertus

Wright-Fisher diffusions and their dual ancestral graphs occupy a central role in the study of allele frequency change and genealogical structure, and they provide expressions, explicit in some special cases but generally implicit, for the…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-03-25 Martina Favero , Paul A. Jenkins

We generalize Taylor's theorem by introducing a stochastic formulation based on an underlying Poisson point process model. We utilize this approach to propose a novel non-linear regression framework and perform statistical inference of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-07 Weichao Wu , Athanasios C. Micheas

We consider the problem of learning two families of time-evolving random measures from indirect observations. In the first model, the signal is a Fleming--Viot diffusion, which is reversible with respect to the law of a Dirichlet process,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-11-19 Omiros Papaspiliopoulos , Matteo Ruggiero , Dario Spanò

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) has become an essential tool for the analysis of complex stochastic models when the likelihood function is numerically unavailable. However, the well-established statistical method of empirical…

Computation · Statistics 2015-06-05 K. L. Mengersen , P. Pudlo , C. P. Robert

We study a random version of the population-market model proposed by Arlot, Marmi and Papini in Arlot et al. (2019). The latter model is based on the Yoccoz-Birkeland integral equation and describes a time evolution of livestock commodities…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2022-12-28 Riccardo Ceccon , Giulia Livieri , Stefano Marmi

In non-linear estimations, it is common to assess sampling uncertainty by bootstrap inference. For complex models, this can be computationally intensive. This paper combines optimization with resampling: turning stochastic optimization into…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-05-09 Jean-Jacques Forneron

Dropout represents a typical issue to be addressed when dealing with longitudinal studies. If the mechanism leading to missing information is non-ignorable, inference based on the observed data only may be severely biased. A frequent…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-03-23 Maria Francesca Marino , Marco Alfo'

We introduce a new random graph model motivated by biological questions relating to speciation. This random graph is defined as the stationary distribution of a Markov chain on the space of graphs on $\{1, \ldots, n\}$. The dynamics of this…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-06-24 François Bienvenu , Florence Débarre , Amaury Lambert

Time-to-event models are a popular tool to analyse data where the outcome variable is the time to the occurrence of a specific event of interest. Here we focus on the analysis of time-to-event outcomes that are either intrisically discrete…

Applications · Statistics 2017-04-14 Moritz Berger , Matthias Schmid

We consider the Bayesian optimal filtering problem: i.e. estimating some conditional statistics of a latent time-series signal from an observation sequence. Classical approaches often rely on the use of assumed or estimated transition and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-03-16 Adrian N. Bishop , Edwin V. Bonilla

Linear regression on network-linked observations has been an essential tool in modeling the relationship between response and covariates with additional network structures. Previous methods either lack inference tools or rely on restrictive…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-08-22 Can M. Le , Tianxi Li

Our purpose in this paper is to apply the general methodology for model selection based on T-estimators developed in Birg\'{e} [Ann. Inst. H. Poincar\'{e} Probab. Statist. 42 (2006) 273--325] to the particular situation of the estimation of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-09-29 Lucien Birgé

An important functional of Poisson random measure is the negative binomial process (NBP). We use NBP to introduce a generalized Poisson-Kingman distribution and its corresponding random discrete probability measure. This random discrete…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-07-04 Sadegh Chegini , Mahmoud Zarepour

The predictability of a time series is determined by the sensitivity to initial conditions of its data generating process. In this paper our goal is to characterize this sensitivity from a finite sample by assuming few hypotheses on the…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2012-12-13 Quentin Giai Gianetto , Jean-Marc Le Caillec , Erwan Marrec