Related papers: An automatic adaptive method to combine summary st…
We consider the problem of uniformity testing of Lipschitz continuous distributions with bounded support. The alternative hypothesis is a composite set of Lipschitz continuous distributions that are at least $\varepsilon$ away in $\ell_1$…
Piecewise diffusion Markov processes (PDifMPs) form a versatile class of stochastic hybrid systems that combine continuous diffusion processes with discrete event-driven dynamics, enabling flexible modelling of complex real-world hybrid…
Bayesian modelling enables us to accommodate complex forms of data and make a comprehensive inference, but the effect of partial misspecification of the model is a concern. One approach in this setting is to modularize the model, and…
Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is the most popular approach to inferring parameters in the case where the data model is specified in the form of a simulator. It is not possible to directly implement standard Monte Carlo methods for…
Amortized Bayesian inference (ABI) offers fast, scalable approximations to posterior densities by training neural surrogates on data simulated from the statistical model. However, ABI methods are highly sensitive to model misspecification:…
In this paper, we propose a doubly stochastic spatial point process model with both aggregation and repulsion. This model combines the ideas behind Strauss processes and log Gaussian Cox processes. The likelihood for this model is not…
We present asymptotic results for the regression-adjusted version of approximate Bayesian computation introduced by Beaumont(2002). We show that for an appropriate choice of the bandwidth, regression adjustment will lead to a posterior…
Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) has gained popularity as a method for conducting inference and forecasting in complex models, most notably those which are intractable in some sense. In this paper we use ABC to produce probabilistic…
We propose a method to improve the efficiency and accuracy of amortized Bayesian inference by leveraging universal symmetries in the joint probabilistic model of parameters and data. In a nutshell, we invert Bayes' theorem and estimate the…
Genetic data obtained on population samples convey information about their evolutionary history. Inference methods can extract this information (at least partially) but they require sophisticated statistical techniques that have been made…
Approximate inference in probability models is a fundamental task in machine learning. Approximate inference provides powerful tools to Bayesian reasoning, decision making, and Bayesian deep learning. The main goal is to estimate the…
Approximate Bayesian computing is a powerful likelihood-free method that has grown increasingly popular since early applications in population genetics. However, complications arise in the theoretical justification for Bayesian inference…
A common method for assessing validity of Bayesian sampling or approximate inference methods makes use of simulated data replicates for parameters drawn from the prior. Under continuity assumptions, quantiles of functions of the simulated…
There is increasing interest to develop Bayesian inferential algorithms for point process models with intractable likelihoods. A purpose of this paper is to illustrate the utility of using simulation based strategies, including Approximate…
Approximate Bayesian computation allows for statistical analysis in models with intractable likelihoods. In this paper we consider the asymptotic behaviour of the posterior distribution obtained by this method. We give general results on…
In this paper, we study the accuracy of values aggregated over classes predicted by a classification algorithm. The problem is that the resulting aggregates (e.g., sums of a variable) are known to be biased. The bias can be large even for…
The PAC-Bayesian approach is a powerful set of techniques to derive non- asymptotic risk bounds for random estimators. The corresponding optimal distribution of estimators, usually called the Gibbs posterior, is unfortunately intractable.…
We analyze the behavior of approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) when the model generating the simulated data differs from the actual data generating process; i.e., when the data simulator in ABC is misspecified. We demonstrate both…
Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) can be used for model fitting when the likelihood function is intractable but simulating from the model is feasible. However, even a single evaluation of a complex model may take several hours,…
Bayesian methods have been very successful in quantifying uncertainty in physics-based problems in parameter estimation and prediction. In these cases, physical measurements y are modeled as the best fit of a physics-based model…