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A fundamental challenge in causal inference with observational data is correct specification of a causal model. When there is model uncertainty, analysts may seek to use estimates from multiple candidate models that rely on distinct, and…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-03 Rohit Bhattacharya , Ina Ocelli , Ted Westling

Our article described an experiment that adjudicates between different causal accounts of Bell inequality violations by a comparison of their predictive power, finding that certain types of models that are structurally radical but…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2024-12-05 Patrick Daley , Kevin J. Resch , Robert W. Spekkens

Collecting genomics data across multiple heterogeneous populations (e.g., across different cancer types) has the potential to improve our understanding of disease. Despite sequencing advances, though, resources often remain a constraint…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-03-05 Yunyi Shen , Lorenzo Masoero , Joshua G. Schraiber , Tamara Broderick

When considering the effect a treatment will cause in a population of interest, we often look to evidence from randomized controlled trials. In settings where multiple trials on a treatment are available, we may wish to synthesize the…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-09-08 Nicole Schnitzler , Eloise Kaizar

Causal inference is made challenging by confounding, selection bias, and other complications. A common approach to addressing these difficulties is the inclusion of auxiliary data on the superpopulation of interest. Such data may measure a…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-04-16 Jaron J. R. Lee , AmirEmad Ghassami , Ilya Shpitser

We consider the problem of assessing whether, in an individual case, there is a causal relationship between an observed exposure and a response variable. When data are available on similar individuals we may be able to estimate prospective…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-11-15 Monica Musio , Philip Dawid

The aim of this paper is to provide a resampling technique that allows us to make inference on superpopulation parameters in finite population setting. Under complex sampling designs, it is often difficult to obtain explicit results about…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-09-24 Pier Luigi Conti , Alberto Di Iorio

Generalized causal effect estimands, including the Mann-Whitney parameter and causal net benefit, provide flexible summaries of treatment effects in randomized experiments with non-Gaussian or multivariate outcomes. We develop a unified…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-27 Xinyuan Chen , Fan Li

We develop a new approach for quantifying uncertainty in finite populations, by using design distributions to calibrate sensitivity parameters in finite population identified sets. This yields uncertainty intervals that can be interpreted…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-05-12 Brendan Kline , Matthew A. Masten

I argue that regularizing terms in standard regression methods not only help against overfitting finite data, but sometimes also yield better causal models in the infinite sample regime. I first consider a multi-dimensional variable…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-07-01 Dominik Janzing

We consider the problem of estimating the effects of a binary treatment on a continuous outcome of interest from observational data in the absence of confounding by unmeasured factors. We provide a new estimator of the population average…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-08-04 James Robins , Mariela Sued , Quanhong Lei-Gomez , Andrea Rotnitzky

We consider the problem of function estimation in the case where an underlying causal model can be inferred. This has implications for popular scenarios such as covariate shift, concept drift, transfer learning and semi-supervised learning.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2012-07-03 Bernhard Schoelkopf , Dominik Janzing , Jonas Peters , Eleni Sgouritsa , Kun Zhang , Joris Mooij

The increasing interest in subpopulation analysis has led to the development of various new trial designs and analysis methods in the fields of personalized medicine and targeted therapies. In this paper, subpopulations are defined in terms…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-12-01 Roland Gerard Gera , Tim Friede

This paper develops a Bayesian framework for robust causal inference from longitudinal observational data. Many contemporary methods rely on structural assumptions, such as factor models, to adjust for unobserved confounding, but they can…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-20 Angelos Alexopoulos , Nikolaos Demiris

In a general set-up that allows unmeasured confounding, we show that the conditional average treatment effect on the treated can be identified as one of two possible values. Unlike existing causal inference methods, we do not require an…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-12-29 Zikun Qin , Bikram Karmakar

In this work, we summarize the state-of-the-art methods in causal inference for extremes. In a non-exhaustive way, we start by describing an extremal approach to quantile treatment effect where the treatment has an impact on the tail of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-03-11 Valérie Chavez-Demoulin , Linda Mhalla

When longitudinal outcomes are evaluated in mortal populations, their non-existence after death complicates the analysis and its causal interpretation. Where popular methods often merge longitudinal outcome and survival into one scale or…

Estimating an individual's potential outcomes under counterfactual treatments is a challenging task for traditional causal inference and supervised learning approaches when the outcome is high-dimensional (e.g. gene expressions, impulse…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-02-13 Yulun Wu , Layne C. Price , Zichen Wang , Vassilis N. Ioannidis , Robert A. Barton , George Karypis

Many scientific questions in biomedical, environmental, and psychological research involve understanding the effects of multiple factors on outcomes. While factorial experiments are ideal for this purpose, randomized controlled treatment…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-03 Ruoqi Yu , Peng Ding

The study of associations and their causal explanations is a central research activity whose methodology varies tremendously across fields. Even within specialized subfields, comparisons across textbooks and journals reveals that the basics…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-13 Sander Greenland
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