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Causal knowledge can be used to support decision-making problems. This has been recognized in the causal bandits literature, where a causal (multi-armed) bandit is characterized by a causal graphical model and a target variable. The arms…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-14 Francisco N. F. Q. Simoes , Itai Feigenbaum , Mehdi Dastani , Thijs van Ommen

The design of multiple experiments is commonly undertaken via suboptimal strategies, such as batch (open-loop) design that omits feedback or greedy (myopic) design that does not account for future effects. This paper introduces new…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-04-29 Xun Huan , Youssef M. Marzouk

We study the causal bandit problem when the causal graph is unknown and develop an efficient algorithm for finding the parent node of the reward node using atomic interventions. We derive the exact equation for the expected number of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-06-09 Mikhail Konobeev , Jalal Etesami , Negar Kiyavash

Randomized experiments are the gold standard for estimating the causal effects of an intervention. In the simplest setting, each experimental unit is randomly assigned to receive treatment or control, and then the outcomes in each treatment…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-06-05 Guillaume Basse , Yi Ding , Panos Toulis

This paper describes a Bayesian method for combining an arbitrary mixture of observational and experimental data in order to learn causal Bayesian networks. Observational data are passively observed. Experimental data, such as that produced…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-01-30 Gregory F. Cooper , Changwon Yoo

A Bayesian optimization algorithm for the nurse scheduling problem is presented, which involves choosing a suitable scheduling rule from a set for each nurses assignment. Unlike our previous work that used Gas to implement implicit…

Neural and Evolutionary Computing · Computer Science 2010-07-05 Jingpeng Li , Uwe Aickelin

We consider the problem of causal discovery (structure learning) from heterogeneous observational data. Most existing methods assume a homogeneous sampling scheme, which leads to misleading conclusions when violated in many applications. To…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-02-01 Fangting Zhou , Kejun He , Yang Ni

Experimental design is central to science and engineering. A ubiquitous challenge is how to maximize the value of information obtained from expensive or constrained experimental settings. Bayesian optimal experimental design (OED) provides…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-13 Sofia Mäkinen , Andrew B. Duncan , Tapio Helin

This paper studies the problem of designing an optimal sequence of interventions in a causal graphical model to minimize cumulative regret with respect to the best intervention in hindsight. This is, naturally, posed as a causal bandit…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-04-04 Burak Varici , Karthikeyan Shanmugam , Prasanna Sattigeri , Ali Tajer

The real-world testing of decisions made using causal machine learning models is an essential prerequisite for their successful application. We focus on evaluating and improving contextual treatment assignment decisions: these are…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-07-13 Desi R. Ivanova , Joel Jennings , Cheng Zhang , Adam Foster

Bayesian approaches developed to solve the optimal design of sequential experiments are mathematically elegant but computationally challenging. Recently, techniques using amortization have been proposed to make these Bayesian approaches…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-20 Tom Blau , Edwin V. Bonilla , Iadine Chades , Amir Dezfouli

We consider a simulation optimization problem for a context-dependent decision-making, which aims to determine the top-m designs for all contexts. Under a Bayesian framework, we formulate the optimal dynamic sampling decision as a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-06-12 Gongbo Zhang , Sihua Chen , Kuihua Huang , Yijie Peng

We propose a new method of discovering causal structures, based on the detection of local, spontaneous changes in the underlying data-generating model. We analyze the classes of structures that are equivalent relative to a stream of…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-01-14 Jin Tian , Judea Pearl

We present a constraint-based algorithm for learning causal structures from observational time-series data, in the presence of latent confounders. We assume a discrete-time, stationary structural vector autoregressive process, with both…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-06-02 Raanan Y. Rohekar , Shami Nisimov , Yaniv Gurwicz , Gal Novik

We study the problem of learning 'good' interventions in a stochastic environment modeled by its underlying causal graph. Good interventions refer to interventions that maximize rewards. Specifically, we consider the setting of a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-17 Fateme Jamshidi , Jalal Etesami , Negar Kiyavash

Learning-based techniques are increasingly effective at controlling complex systems using data-driven models. However, most work done so far has focused on learning individual tasks or control laws. Hence, it is still a largely unaddressed…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2020-05-08 Alexandre Capone , Armin Lederer , Jonas Umlauft , Sandra Hirche

Causal discovery studies the problem of mining causal relationships between variables from data, which is of primary interest in science. During the past decades, significant amount of progresses have been made toward this fundamental data…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2016-11-28 Kui Yu , Jiuyong Li , Lin Liu

We consider the problem of learning the functions computing children from parents in a Structural Causal Model once the underlying causal graph has been identified. This is in some sense the second step after causal discovery. Taking a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-07-03 Paul K. Rubenstein , Ilya Tolstikhin , Philipp Hennig , Bernhard Schoelkopf

This survey is focused on certain sequential decision-making problems that involve optimizing over probability functions. We discuss the relevance of these problems for learning and control. The survey is organized around a framework that…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-01-13 Emiland Garrabe , Giovanni Russo

Sample-efficient exploration is crucial not only for discovering rewarding experiences but also for adapting to environment changes in a task-agnostic fashion. A principled treatment of the problem of optimal input synthesis for system…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-10-10 Matthias Schultheis , Boris Belousov , Hany Abdulsamad , Jan Peters