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Under mild Markov assumptions, sufficient conditions for strict minimax optimality of sequential tests for multiple hypotheses under distributional uncertainty are derived. First, the design of optimal sequential tests for simple hypotheses…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-10-26 Michael Fauss , Abdelhak M. Zoubir , H. Vincent Poor

Many random combinatorial objects have a component structure whose joint distribution is equal to that of a process of mutually independent random variables, conditioned on the value of a weighted sum of the variables. It is interesting to…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-08-16 Richard Arratia , Simon Tavare

We study computational and statistical aspects of learning Latent Markov Decision Processes (LMDPs). In this model, the learner interacts with an MDP drawn at the beginning of each epoch from an unknown mixture of MDPs. To sidestep known…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-13 Fan Chen , Constantinos Daskalakis , Noah Golowich , Alexander Rakhlin

Predictive equivalence in discrete stochastic processes have been applied with great success to identify randomness and structure in statistical physics and chaotic dynamical systems and to inferring hidden Markov models. We examine the…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2021-09-21 Samuel P. Loomis , James P. Crutchfield

When constructing models of the world, we aim for optimal compressions: models that include as few details as possible while remaining as accurate as possible. But which details -- or features measured in data -- should we choose to include…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2025-05-06 David P. Carcamo , Nicholas J. Weaver , Purushottam D. Dixit , Christopher W. Lynn

Understanding the generative mechanism of a natural system is a vital component of the scientific method. Here, we investigate one of the fundamental steps toward this goal by presenting the minimal generator of an arbitrary binary Markov…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2018-02-14 J. Ruebeck , R. G. James , J. R. Mahoney , J. P. Crutchfield

A principled approach to understand network structures is to formulate generative models. Given a collection of models, however, an outstanding key task is to determine which one provides a more accurate description of the network at hand,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-06-29 Toni Vallès-Català , Tiago P. Peixoto , Roger Guimerà , Marta Sales-Pardo

We consider the problem of estimating the measure of subsets in very large networks. A prime tool for this purpose is the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm. This algorithm, while extremely useful in many cases, still often suffers…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2020-09-01 Ahmad Askarian , Rupei Xu , András Faragó

Parametric Markov chains occur quite naturally in various applications: they can be used for a conservative analysis of probabilistic systems (no matter how the parameter is chosen, the system works to specification); they can be used to…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2018-11-05 Paul Gainer , Ernst Moritz Hahn , Sven Schewe

We provide a new algorithm for solving Risk Sensitive Partially Observable Markov Decisions Processes, when the risk is modeled by a utility function, and both the state space and the space of observations is finite. This algorithm is based…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2022-07-19 Arsham Afsardeir , Andreas Kapetanis , Vaios Laschos , Klaus Obermayer

Markov decision processes model systems subject to nondeterministic and probabilistic uncertainty. A plethora of verification techniques addresses variations of reachability properties, such as: Is there a scheduler resolving the…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2025-05-26 Lina Gerlach , Tobias Winkler , Erika Ábrahám , Borzoo Bonakdarpour , Sebastian Junges

We study the statistical complexity of offline decision-making with function approximation, establishing (near) minimax-optimal rates for stochastic contextual bandits and Markov decision processes. The performance limits are captured by…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-14 Thanh Nguyen-Tang , Raman Arora

We develop a qualitative theory of Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) and Partially Observable MDPs that can be used to model sequential decision making tasks when only qualitative information is available. Our approach is based upon an…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-01-07 Blai Bonet , Judea Pearl

Verification of infinite-state Markov chains is still a challenge despite several fruitful numerical or statistical approaches. For decisive Markov chains, there is a simple numerical algorithm that frames the reachability probability as…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2024-09-30 Benoît Barbot , Patricia Bouyer , Serge Haddad

We study upper and lower bounds on the sample-complexity of learning near-optimal behaviour in finite-state discounted Markov Decision Processes (MDPs). For the upper bound we make the assumption that each action leads to at most two…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2013-05-17 Tor Lattimore , Marcus Hutter

We consider partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) with a set of target states and every transition is associated with an integer cost. The optimization objective we study asks to minimize the expected total cost till the…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2014-11-17 Krishnendu Chatterjee , Martin Chmelík , Raghav Gupta , Ayush Kanodia

Finite order Markov models are theoretically well-studied models for dependent discrete data. Despite their generality, application in empirical work when the order is large is rare. Practitioners avoid using higher order Markov models…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-03-06 Guilherme Ost , Daniel Takahashi

Determinantal point processes (DPPs) have wide-ranging applications in machine learning, where they are used to enforce the notion of diversity in subset selection problems. Many estimators have been proposed, but surprisingly the basic…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-07-25 Victor-Emmanuel Brunel , Ankur Moitra , Philippe Rigollet , John Urschel

The amount of information in the form of features and variables avail- able to machine learning algorithms is ever increasing. This can lead to classifiers that are prone to overfitting in high dimensions, high di- mensional models do not…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2014-02-12 Aaron Karper

We consider deterministic Markov decision processes (MDPs) and apply max-plus algebra tools to approximate the value iteration algorithm by a smaller-dimensional iteration based on a representation on dictionaries of value functions. The…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-06-21 Francis Bach