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Providing non-conservative uncertainty quantification for function estimates derived from noisy observations remains a fundamental challenge in statistical machine learning, particularly for applications in safety-critical domains. In this…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-12 Johannes Teutsch , Oleksii Molodchyk , Marion Leibold , Timm Faulwasser , Armin Lederer

Weighted empirical risk minimization is a common approach to prediction under distribution drift. This article studies its out-of-sample prediction error under nonstationarity. We provide a general decomposition of the excess risk into a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-19 Tobias Brock , Thomas Nagler

We establish conditions for uniform $r$-th moment bound of certain $\R^d$-valued functions of a discrete-time stochastic process taking values in a general metric space. The conditions include an appropriate negative drift together with a…

Probability · Mathematics 2011-07-26 Arnab Ganguly , Debasish Chatterjee , John Lygeros , Heinz Koeppl

In many contemporary statistical and machine learning methods, one needs to optimize an objective function that depends on the discrepancy between two probability distributions. The discrepancy can be referred to as a metric for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-11 Yijin Ni , Xiaoming Huo

In application areas where data generation is expensive, Gaussian processes are a preferred supervised learning model due to their high data-efficiency. Particularly in model-based control, Gaussian processes allow the derivation of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-01-15 Armin Lederer , Jonas Umlauft , Sandra Hirche

It has been observed that certain loss functions can render deep-learning pipelines robust against flaws in the data. In this paper, we support these empirical findings with statistical theory. We especially show that empirical-risk…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-09-15 Johannes Lederer

We derive novel concentration inequalities that bound the statistical error for a large class of stochastic optimization problems, focusing on the case of unbounded objective functions. Our derivations utilize the following key tools: 1) A…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-01-01 Jeremiah Birrell

In this work, the probability of an event under some joint distribution is bounded by measuring it with the product of the marginals instead (which is typically easier to analyze) together with a measure of the dependence between the two…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2020-10-22 Amedeo Roberto Esposito , Michael Gastpar , Ibrahim Issa

Generalization under distribution shift remains a core challenge in modern machine learning, yet existing learning bound theory is limited to narrow, idealized settings and is non-estimable from samples. In this paper, we bridge the gap…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-08-25 Hongbo Chen , Li Charlie Xia

We present a general approach, based on exponential inequalities, to derive bounds on the generalization error of randomized learning algorithms. Using this approach, we provide bounds on the average generalization error as well as bounds…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-10 Fredrik Hellström , Giuseppe Durisi

We deduce in this paper the sufficient conditions for weak convergence of centered and normed deviation of the u-statistics with values in the space of the real valued continuous function defined on some compact metric space. We obtain also…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-08-12 E. Ostrovsky , L. Sirota

In this paper, we use tools from rate-distortion theory to establish new upper bounds on the generalization error of statistical distributed learning algorithms. Specifically, there are $K$ clients whose individually chosen models are…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-11-23 Milad Sefidgaran , Romain Chor , Abdellatif Zaidi

In this paper, we investigate the effect of data heterogeneity across clients on the performance of distributed learning systems, i.e., one-round Federated Learning, as measured by the associated generalization error. Specifically, $K$…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-21 Masoud Kavian , Romain Chor , Milad Sefidgaran , Abdellatif Zaidi

Gaussian processes have become a promising tool for various safety-critical settings, since the posterior variance can be used to directly estimate the model error and quantify risk. However, state-of-the-art techniques for safety-critical…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-07-22 Alexandre Capone , Armin Lederer , Sandra Hirche

In this paper, we explore bounds on the expected risk when using deep neural networks for supervised classification from an information theoretic perspective. Firstly, we introduce model risk and fitting error, which are derived from…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-08 Binchuan Qi

In this paper, we derive generic bounds on the maximum deviations in prediction errors for sequential prediction via an information-theoretic approach. The fundamental bounds are shown to depend only on the conditional entropy of the data…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-05-12 Song Fang , Quanyan Zhu

We consider diffraction at random point scatterers on general discrete point sets in $\R^\nu$, restricted to a finite volume. We allow for random amplitudes and random dislocations of the scatterers. We investigate the speed of convergence…

Mathematical Physics · Physics 2007-05-23 C. Kuelske

We derive concentration inequalities for the supremum norm of the difference between a kernel density estimator (KDE) and its point-wise expectation that hold uniformly over the selection of the bandwidth and under weaker conditions on the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-01-01 Jisu Kim , Jaehyeok Shin , Alessandro Rinaldo , Larry Wasserman

Generalization error bounds are critical to understanding the performance of machine learning models. In this work, building upon a new bound of the expected value of an arbitrary function of the population and empirical risk of a learning…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2021-05-07 Gholamali Aminian , Laura Toni , Miguel R. D. Rodrigues

The method to derive uniform bounds with Gaussian and Rademacher complexities is extended to the case where the sample average is replaced by a nonlinear statistic. Tight bounds are obtained for U-statistics, smoothened L-statistics and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-05-13 Andreas Maurer , Massimiliano Pontil