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Bayesian linear inverse problems aim to recover an unknown signal from noisy observations, incorporating prior knowledge. This paper analyses a data-dependent method to choose the scale parameter of a Gaussian prior. The method we study…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-10-22 Maia Tienstra , Sebastian Reich

We address the problem of observation noise misspecification in Bayesian filtering of dynamical systems via recent advances in generalised Bayesian inference. Mis-match in tail decay between the true data generating process and an assumed…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-05-27 Hans Reimann , Sebastian Reich

Data assimilation provides algorithms for widespread applications in various fields. It is of practical use to deal with a large amount of information in the complex system that is hard to estimate. Weather forecasting is one of the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-03-23 Yihua Yang

In this paper, we propose an approach to address the problems with ambiguity in tuning the process and observation noises for a discrete-time linear Kalman filter. Conventional approaches to tuning (e.g. using normalized estimation error…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-08-25 Zhaozhong Chen , Christoffer Heckman , Simon Julier , Nisar Ahmed

Ensemble Kalman inversion is a parallelizable methodology for solving inverse or parameter estimation problems. Although it is based on ideas from Kalman filtering, it may be viewed as a derivative-free optimization method. In its most…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2024-12-20 Neil K. Chada , Andrew M. Stuart , Xin T. Tong

Ensemble Kalman methods were initially developed to solve nonlinear data assimilation problems in oceanography, but are now popular in applications far beyond their original use cases. Of particular interest is climate model calibration. As…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2025-11-21 Rebecca Gjini , Matthias Morzfeld , Oliver R. A. Dunbar , Tapio Schneider

Data assimilation algorithms are used to estimate the states of a dynamical system using partial and noisy observations. The ensemble Kalman filter has become a popular data assimilation scheme due to its simplicity and robustness for a…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2021-06-23 Gottfried Hastermann , Maria Reinhardt , Rupert Klein , Sebastian Reich

Data-driven prediction and physics-agnostic machine-learning methods have attracted increased interest in recent years achieving forecast horizons going well beyond those to be expected for chaotic dynamical systems. In a separate strand of…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2021-05-19 Georg A. Gottwald , Sebastian Reich

We are concerned with the reconstruction of inclusions in elastic bodies based on measurements from a laboratory experiment. In doing so, we solve the inverse problem of the time-harmonic elastic wave equation, in contrast to the stationary…

Analysis of PDEs · Mathematics 2026-05-21 Sarah Eberle-Blick , Jochen Moll

In inverse problems, the goal is to estimate unknown model parameters from noisy observational data. Traditionally, inverse problems are solved under the assumption of a fixed forward operator describing the observation model. In this…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2024-09-26 Simon Weissmann , Neil K. Chada , Xin T. Tong

This article is concerned with the convergence of the state estimate obtained from the discrete time Kalman filter to the continuous time estimate as the temporal discretization is refined. We derive convergence rate estimates for different…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2015-12-10 Atte Aalto

We look at continuum solutions in optimisation problems associated to linear inverse problems $y = Ax$ with non-negativity constraint $x \geq 0$. We focus on the case where the noise model leads to maximum likelihood estimation through…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-04-20 Camille Pouchol , Olivier Verdier

Nonlinear filtering problems are encountered in many applications, and one solution approach is the extended Kalman filter, which is not always convergent. Therefore, it is crucial to identify conditions under which the extended Kalman…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-03-24 Ibrahim Mbouandi Njiasse , Florent Ouabo Kamkumo , Ralf Wunderlich

This paper proposes a probabilistic approach to the problem of intrinsic filtering of a system on a matrix Lie group with invariance properties. The problem of an invariant continuous-time model with discrete-time measurements is cast into…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2016-02-22 Axel Barrau , Silvere Bonnabel

Stability analysis of the Kalman filter under randomly lost measurements has been widely studied. We revisit this problem in a general continuous-time framework, where both the measurement matrix and noise covariance evolve as random…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-11-19 Xinyi Wang , Devansh R. Agrawal , Dimitra Panagou

We consider the problem of performing Bayesian inference for logistic regression using appropriate extensions of the ensemble Kalman filter. Two interacting particle systems are proposed that sample from an approximate posterior and prove…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-07-02 Diksha Bhandari , Jakiw Pidstrigach , Sebastian Reich

The increasing availability of data presents an opportunity to calibrate unknown parameters which appear in complex models of phenomena in the biomedical, physical and social sciences. However, model complexity often leads to…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2022-01-25 Oliver R. A. Dunbar , Andrew B. Duncan , Andrew M. Stuart , Marie-Therese Wolfram

The Ensemble Kalman Inversion (EKI) method is widely used for solving inverse problems, leveraging ensemble-based techniques to iteratively refine parameter estimates. Despite its versatility, the accuracy of EKI is constrained by the…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-03-17 Ruben Harris , Claudia Schillings

Here we revisit the classic problem of linear quadratic estimation, i.e. estimating the trajectory of a linear dynamical system from noisy measurements. The celebrated Kalman filter gives an optimal estimator when the measurement noise is…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-11-12 Sitan Chen , Frederic Koehler , Ankur Moitra , Morris Yau

The iterative ensemble Kalman filter (IEnKF) is widely used in inverse problems to estimate system parameters from limited observations. However, the IEnKF, when applied to nonlinear systems, can be plagued by poor convergence. Here we…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2019-10-11 Jiacheng Wu , Jian-Xun Wang , Shawn C. Shadden