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The paper studies an improved estimate for the rate of convergence for nonlinear homogeneous discrete-time Markov chains. These processes are nonlinear in terms of the distribution law. Hence, the transition kernels are dependent on the…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-05-21 Aleksandr Shchegolev

We consider the problem of approximating the stationary distribution of an ergodic Markov chain given a set of sampled transitions. Classical simulation-based approaches assume access to the underlying process so that trajectories of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-03-03 Junfeng Wen , Bo Dai , Lihong Li , Dale Schuurmans

We provide a novel method for sensitivity analysis of parametric robust Markov chains. These models incorporate parameters and sets of probability distributions to alleviate the often unrealistic assumption that precise probabilities are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-05-03 Thom Badings , Sebastian Junges , Ahmadreza Marandi , Ufuk Topcu , Nils Jansen

We consider the Markov chain approximations for singular stable-like processes. First we obtain properties of some Markov chains. Then we construct the approximating Markov chains and give a necessary condition for weak convergence of these…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-10-11 Fangjun Xu

We present a new class of interacting Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms for solving numerically discrete-time measure-valued equations. The associated stochastic processes belong to the class of self-interacting Markov chains. In contrast…

Probability · Mathematics 2010-09-30 Pierre Del Moral , Arnaud Doucet

We study stochastic approximation procedures for approximately solving a $d$-dimensional linear fixed point equation based on observing a trajectory of length $n$ from an ergodic Markov chain. We first exhibit a non-asymptotic bound of the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-05-14 Wenlong Mou , Ashwin Pananjady , Martin J. Wainwright , Peter L. Bartlett

We consider the problem of fitting variational posterior approximations using stochastic optimization methods. The performance of these approximations depends on (1) how well the variational family matches the true posterior…

We prove explicit error bounds for Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods to compute expectations of functions with unbounded stationary variance. We assume that there is a $p\in(1,2)$ so that the functions have finite $L_p$-norm. For…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-01-27 Daniel Rudolf , Nikolaus Schweizer

We consider the problem of estimating the asymptotic variance of a function defined on a Markov chain, an important step for statistical inference of the stationary mean. We design a novel recursive estimator that requires $O(1)$…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-09-24 Shubhada Agrawal , Prashanth L. A. , Siva Theja Maguluri

Estimating the transition dynamics of controlled Markov chains is crucial in fields such as time series analysis, reinforcement learning, and system exploration. Traditional non-parametric density estimation methods often assume independent…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-05-21 Imon Banerjee , Vinayak Rao , Harsha Honnappa

This article provides the first procedure for computing a fully data-dependent interval that traps the mixing time $t_{\text{mix}}$ of a finite reversible ergodic Markov chain at a prescribed confidence level. The interval is computed from…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2015-11-04 Daniel Hsu , Aryeh Kontorovich , Csaba Szepesvári

In the thesis we take the split chain approach to analyzing Markov chains and use it to establish fixed-width results for estimators obtained via Markov chain Monte Carlo procedures (MCMC). Theoretical results include necessary and…

Methodology · Statistics 2009-07-28 Krzysztof Latuszynski

This paper focuses on a class of continuous-time controlled Markov chains with time-inconsistent and distribution-dependent cost functional (in some appropriate sense). A new definition of time-inconsistent distribution-dependent…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2019-09-26 Hongwei Mei , George Yin

Probabilistic model checking for systems with large or unbounded state space is a challenging computational problem in formal modelling and its applications. Numerical algorithms require an explicit representation of the state space, while…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2018-06-12 Dimitrios Milios , Guido Sanguinetti , David Schnoerr

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms provide a very general recipe for estimating properties of complicated distributions. While their use has become commonplace and there is a large literature on MCMC theory and practice, MCMC users…

Computation · Statistics 2012-05-03 Murali Haran , Luke Tierney

We introduce a new class of Monte Carlo methods, which we call exact estimation algorithms. Such algorithms provide unbiased estimators for equilibrium expectations associated with real- valued functionals defined on a Markov chain. We…

Computation · Statistics 2014-09-16 Peter W. Glynn , Chang-han Rhee

This paper is concerned with ergodic properties of inhomogeneous Markov processes. Since the transition probabilities depend on initial times, the existing methods to obtain invariant measures for homogeneous Markov processes are not…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-01-24 Zhenxin Liu , Di Lu

Labeled continuous-time Markov chains (CTMCs) describe processes subject to random timing and partial observability. In applications such as runtime monitoring, we must incorporate past observations. The timing of these observations matters…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2024-01-30 Thom Badings , Matthias Volk , Sebastian Junges , Marielle Stoelinga , Nils Jansen

Information-theoretic quantities play a crucial role in understanding non-linear relationships between random variables and are widely used across scientific disciplines. However, estimating these quantities remains an open problem,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-28 Alberto Foresti , Giulio Franzese , Pietro Michiardi

In this paper, we study the problem of estimating the autocovariance sequence resulting from a reversible Markov chain. A motivating application for studying this problem is the estimation of the asymptotic variance in central limit…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-11-13 Stephen Berg , Hyebin Song