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Climate models exhibit an approximately invariant surface warming pattern in typical end-of-century projections. This observation has been used extensively in climate impact assessments for fast calculations of local temperature anomalies,…
Improving the accuracy of forecast models for physical systems such as the atmosphere is a crucial ongoing effort. Errors in state estimation for these often highly nonlinear systems has been the primary focus of recent research, but as…
Current techniques for predicting climate change are mainly based on "massive" deterministic numerical modeling. However, the ocean-atmosphere system is a so-called "complex system", made up of a large number of interacting elements. We…
Variations in zonal surface temperature gradients and zonally asymmetric tropical overturning circulations (Walker circulations) are examined over a wide range of climates simulated with an idealized atmospheric general circulation model…
Random operators constitute fundamental building blocks of models of complex systems yet are far from fully understood. Here, we explain an asymmetry emerging upon repeating identical isotropic (uniformly random) operations. Specifically,…
Survival models capture the relationship between an accumulating hazard and the occurrence of a singular event stimulated by that accumulation. When the model for the hazard is sufficiently flexible survival models can accommodate a wide…
Conventional ordering transitions, described by the Landau paradigm, are characterized by the symmetries broken at the critical point. Within the constrained manifold occurring at low temperatures in certain frustrated systems,…
The study of the Ising model from a percolation perspective has played a significant role in the modern theory of critical phenomena. We consider the celebrated square-lattice Ising model and construct percolation clusters by placing bonds,…
The exact solution of the Ising model on the complete graph (CG) provides an important, though mean-field, insight for the theory of continuous phase transitions. Besides the original spin, the Ising model can be formulated in the…
A poleward-thinning ice shell can drive circulation in the subsurface oceans of icy moons by imposing a meridional temperature gradient--colder at the equator than the pole--through the freezing point suppression due to pressure. This…
We study the onset of the bootstrap percolation transition as a model of generalized dynamical arrest. We develop a new importance-sampling procedure in simulation, based on rare events around "holes", that enables us to access bootstrap…
In large lakes, ice cover plays an important role in shipping and navigation, coastal erosion, regional weather and climate, and aquatic ecosystem function. In this study, a novel deep learning model for ice cover concentration prediction…
We consider an active Ising model in which spins both diffuse and align on lattice in one and two dimensions. The diffusion is biased so that plus or minus spins hop preferably to the left or to the right, which generates a flocking…
The emergence of collective oscillations and synchronization is a widespread phenomenon in complex systems. While widely studied in dynamical systems theory, this phenomenon is not well understood in the context of out-of-equilibrium phase…
Sinking marine snow particles, composed primarily of organic matter, control the global export of photosynthetically fixed carbon from the ocean surface to depth. The fate of sedimenting marine snow particles is in part regulated by their…
We perform Monte Carlo simulations in a random anisotropy magnet at a intermediate exchange to anisotropy ratio. We focus on the out of equilibrium relaxation after a sudden quenching in the low temperature phase, well below the freezing…
Design of robots at the small scale is a trial-and-error based process, which is costly and time-consuming. There are few dynamic simulation tools available to accurately predict the motion or performance of untethered microrobots as they…
The theory of fully developed turbulence is usually considered in an idealized homogeneous and isotropic state. Real turbulent flows exhibit the effects of anisotropic forcing. The analysis of correlation functions and structure functions…
A spin-glass transition has been investigated for a long time but we have not yet reached a conclusion due to difficulties in the simulations. They are slow dynamics, strong finite-size effects, and sample-to-sample dependences. We…
An ice shelf is a floating extension of a land-based ice sheet into the ocean. It plays a crucial role in slowing down the flow of land ice into the sea, thus stabilizing the ice sheet. However, this stabilizing effect can be weakened by…