Related papers: Variational approximations for stochastic dynamics…
We describe an adaptive importance sampling algorithm for rare events that is based on a dual stochastic control formulation of a path sampling problem. Specifically, we focus on path functionals that have the form of cumulate generating…
We establish epigraphical and uniform laws of large numbers for sample-based approximations of law invariant risk functionals. These sample-based approximation schemes include Monte Carlo (MC) and certain randomized quasi-Monte Carlo…
Mean-Field is an efficient way to approximate a posterior distribution in complex graphical models and constitutes the most popular class of Bayesian variational approximation methods. In most applications, the mean field distribution…
Stochastic blockmodels provide a convenient representation of relations between communities of nodes in a network. However, they imply a notion of stochastic equivalence that is often unrealistic for real networks, and they comprise large…
Stochastic spreading models defined on complex network topologies are used to mimic the diffusion of diseases, information, and opinions in real-world systems. Existing theoretical approaches to the characterization of the models in terms…
The problem of optimising functions with intractable gradients frequently arise in machine learning and statistics, ranging from maximum marginal likelihood estimation procedures to fine-tuning of generative models. Stochastic approximation…
This paper presents a study using the Bayesian approach in stochastic volatility models for modeling financial time series, using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo methods (HMC). We propose the use of other distributions for the errors in the…
Assessing the practical identifiability of epidemic models is essential for determining whether parameters can be meaningfully estimated from observed data. Monte Carlo (MC) methods provide an accessible and intuitive framework; however,…
Simulation Based Calibration (SBC) is applied to analyse two commonly used, competing Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms for estimating the posterior distribution of a stochastic volatility model. In particular, the bespoke 'off-set…
We introduce a model of long-range interacting particles evolving under a stochastic Monte Carlo dynamics, in which possible increase or decrease in the values of the dynamical variables is accepted with preassigned probabilities. For…
This paper presents a new numerical scheme for simulating stochastic processes specified by their marginal distribution functions and covariance functions. Stochastic samples are firstly generated to automatically satisfy target marginal…
In this paper we introduce a class of stochastic population models based on "patch dynamics". The size of the patch may be varied, and this allows one to quantify the departures of these stochastic models from various mean field theories,…
We propose a new viewpoint on variational mean-field games with diffusion and quadratic Hamiltonian. We show the equivalence of such mean-field games with a relative entropy minimization at the level of probabilities on curves. We also…
Recent advances in stochastic gradient variational inference have made it possible to perform variational Bayesian inference with posterior approximations containing auxiliary random variables. This enables us to explore a new synthesis of…
Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) algorithms which combine numerical approximation of Hamiltonian dynamics on finite intervals with stochastic refreshment and Metropolis correction are popular sampling schemes, but it is known that they may…
Gradient-based Monte Carlo sampling algorithms, like Langevin dynamics and Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, are important methods for Bayesian inference. In large-scale settings, full-gradients are not affordable and thus stochastic gradients…
We propose here some new sampling algorithms for Path Sampling in the case when stochastic dynamics are used. In particular, we present a new proposal function for equilibrium sampling of paths with a Monte-Carlo dynamics (the so-called…
Graph clustering involves the task of dividing nodes into clusters, so that the edge density is higher within clusters as opposed to across clusters. A natural, classic and popular statistical setting for evaluating solutions to this…
Markov chains are fundamental models for stochastic dynamics, with applications in a wide range of areas such as population dynamics, queueing systems, reinforcement learning, and Monte Carlo methods. Estimating the transition matrix and…
We propose sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods for sampling the posterior distribution of state-space models under highly informative observation regimes, a situation in which standard SMC methods can perform poorly. A special case is…