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Sequential scaling is a prominent inference-time scaling paradigm, yet its performance improvements are typically modest and not well understood, largely due to the prevalence of heuristic, non-principled approaches that obscure clear…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-03 Youkang Wang , Jian Wang , Rubing Chen , Tianyi Zeng , Xiao-Yong Wei , Qing Li

Obtaining a non-parametric expression for an interventional distribution is one of the most fundamental tasks in causal inference. Such an expression can be obtained for an identifiable causal effect by an algorithm or by manual application…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-06-20 Santtu Tikka , Juha Karvanen

The importance of clinical variables in the prognosis of the disease is explained using statistical correlation or machine learning (ML). However, the predictive importance of these variables may not represent their causal relationships…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-06-04 Yina Hou , Shourav B. Rabbani , Liang Hong , Norou Diawara , Manar D. Samad

We introduce a novel framework for causal explanations of stochastic, sequential decision-making systems built on the well-studied structural causal model paradigm for causal reasoning. This single framework can identify multiple,…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-01-12 Samer B. Nashed , Saaduddin Mahmud , Claudia V. Goldman , Shlomo Zilberstein

Causal inference from observational data plays critical role in many applications in trustworthy machine learning. While sound and complete algorithms exist to compute causal effects, many of them assume access to conditional likelihoods,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-04 Md Musfiqur Rahman , Matt Jordan , Murat Kocaoglu

Conditional probabilities are a core concept in machine learning. For example, optimal prediction of a label $Y$ given an input $X$ corresponds to maximizing the conditional probability of $Y$ given $X$. A common approach to inference tasks…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-08-09 Yoav Wald , Amir Globerson

Learning the causal structure that underlies data is a crucial step towards robust real-world decision making. The majority of existing work in causal inference focuses on determining a single directed acyclic graph (DAG) or a Markov…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-15 Yashas Annadani , Jonas Rothfuss , Alexandre Lacoste , Nino Scherrer , Anirudh Goyal , Yoshua Bengio , Stefan Bauer

In this paper we establish a mathematically rigorous connection between Causal inference (C-inf) and the low-rank recovery (LRR). Using Random Duality Theory (RDT) concepts developed in [46,48,50] and novel mathematical strategies related…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-01-03 Agostino Capponi , Mihailo Stojnic

We introduce a doubly stochastic proximal gradient algorithm for optimizing a finite average of smooth convex functions, whose gradients depend on numerically expensive expectations. Our main motivation is the acceleration of the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-11-09 Massil Achab , Agathe Guilloux , Stéphane Gaïffas , Emmanuel Bacry

Causal discovery from i.i.d. observational data is known to be generally ill-posed. We demonstrate that if we have access to the distribution {induced} by a structural causal model, and additional data from (in the best case) \textit{only…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-15 Francesco Montagna

Discovering the causal structure among a set of variables is a fundamental problem in many areas of science. In this paper, we propose Kernel Conditional Deviance for Causal Inference (KCDC) a fully nonparametric causal discovery method…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-04-13 Jovana Mitrovic , Dino Sejdinovic , Yee Whye Teh

We consider stochastic systems of interacting particles or agents, with dynamics determined by an interaction kernel which only depends on pairwise distances. We study the problem of inferring this interaction kernel from observations of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-07-31 Fei Lu , Mauro Maggioni , Sui Tang

Learning causal relations from observational data is a fundamental problem with wide-ranging applications across many fields. Constraint-based methods infer the underlying causal structure by performing conditional independence tests.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-24 Marc Franquesa Monés , Jiaqi Zhang , Caroline Uhler

We aim to create the highest possible quality of treatment-control matches for categorical data in the potential outcomes framework. Matching methods are heavily used in the social sciences due to their interpretability, but most matching…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-06-11 Yameng Liu , Aw Dieng , Sudeepa Roy , Cynthia Rudin , Alexander Volfovsky

Robust feature selection is vital for creating reliable and interpretable Machine Learning (ML) models. When designing statistical prediction models in cases where domain knowledge is limited and underlying interactions are unknown,…

We consider the problem of identifying the causal direction between two discrete random variables using observational data. Unlike previous work, we keep the most general functional model but make an assumption on the unobserved exogenous…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2016-11-16 Murat Kocaoglu , Alexandros G. Dimakis , Sriram Vishwanath , Babak Hassibi

When causal quantities cannot be point identified, researchers often pursue partial identification to quantify the range of possible values. However, the peculiarities of applied research conditions can make this analytically intractable.…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-09-29 Guilherme Duarte , Noam Finkelstein , Dean Knox , Jonathan Mummolo , Ilya Shpitser

Quantum algorithms offer the potential for significant computational advantages; however, in many cases, it remains unclear how these advantages can be practically realized. Causal Set Theory is a discrete, Lorentz-invariant approach to…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2025-06-25 Stuart Ferguson , Arad Nasiri , Petros Wallden

Stationary ergodic processes with finite alphabets are estimated by finite memory processes from a sample, an n-length realization of the process, where the memory depth of the estimator process is also estimated from the sample using…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-07-25 Zsolt Talata

To unbiasedly estimate a causal effect on an outcome unconfoundedness is often assumed. If there is sufficient knowledge on the underlying causal structure then existing confounder selection criteria can be used to select subsets of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-03-20 Jenny Häggström