Related papers: Inference for Stochastically Contaminated Variable…
We propose a numerical technique for parameter inference in Markov models of biological processes. Based on time-series data of a process we estimate the kinetic rate constants by maximizing the likelihood of the data. The computation of…
We study algorithms to analyze a particular class of Markov population processes that is often used in epidemiology. More specifically, Markov binomial chains are the model that arises from stochastic time-discretizations of classical…
We are interested in assessing the order of a finite-state Hidden Markov Model (HMM) with the only two assumptions that the transition matrix of the latent Markov chain has full rank and that the density functions of the emission…
Time-series models typically assume untainted and legitimate streams of data. However, a self-interested adversary may have incentive to corrupt this data, thereby altering a decision maker's inference. Within the broader field of…
Markov Chains with variable length are useful stochastic models for data compression that avoid the curse of dimensionality faced by that full Markov Chains. In this paper we introduce a Variable Length Markov Chain whose transition…
We consider the approximation of expectations with respect to the distribution of a latent Markov process given noisy measurements. This is known as the smoothing problem and is often approached with particle and Markov chain Monte Carlo…
We propose a new approach for estimating the finite dimensional transition matrix of a Markov chain using a large number of independent sample paths observed at random times. The sample paths may be observed as few as two times, and the…
We discuss the possibility of applying some standard statistical methods (the least square method, the maximum likelihood method, the method of statistical moments for estimation of parameters) to deterministically chaotic low-dimensional…
This paper addresses the problem of estimating the modes of an observed non-stationary mixture signal in the presence of an arbitrary distributed noise. A novel Bayesian model is introduced to estimate the model parameters from the…
We consider the problem of estimating means of two Gaussians in a 2-Gaussian mixture, which is not balanced and is corrupted by noise of an arbitrary distribution. We present a robust algorithm to estimate the parameters, together with…
In this paper, we analyze the finite sample complexity of stochastic system identification using modern tools from machine learning and statistics. An unknown discrete-time linear system evolves over time under Gaussian noise without…
We consider the problem of bounding mean first passage times for a class of continuous-time Markov chains that captures stochastic interactions between groups of identical agents. The quantitative analysis of such probabilistic population…
In this paper we focus on the parameter estimation of dynamic load models with stochastic terms, in particular, load models where protection settings are uncertain, such as in aggregated air conditioning units. We show how the uncertainty…
In this study, we introduce a sensitivity analysis methodology for stochastic systems in chemistry, where dynamics are often governed by random processes. Our approach is based on gradient estimation via finite differences, averaging…
Assessing the practical identifiability of epidemic models is essential for determining whether parameters can be meaningfully estimated from observed data. Monte Carlo (MC) methods provide an accessible and intuitive framework; however,…
We introduce the Conditional Mutual Information (CMI) for the estimation of the Markov chain order. For a Markov chain of $K$ symbols, we define CMI of order $m$, $I_c(m)$, as the mutual information of two variables in the chain being $m$…
This paper considers stochastic-constrained stochastic optimization where the stochastic constraint is to satisfy that the expectation of a random function is below a certain threshold. In particular, we study the setting where data samples…
In this paper we study the asymptotic behavior of a stochastic approximation scheme on two timescales with set-valued drift functions and in the presence of non-additive iterate-dependent Markov noise. It is shown that the recursion on each…
Molecule- and particle-based simulations provide the tools to test, in microscopic detail, the validity of classical nucleation theory. In this endeavour, determining nucleation mechanisms and rates for phase separation requires an…
In this paper, we study randomized methods for feedback design of uncertain systems. The first contribution is to derive the sample complexity of various constrained control problems. In particular, we show the key role played by the…