Related papers: Bayesian regression of piecewise homogeneous Poiss…
The problem of subgroups is ubiquitous in scientific research (ex. disease heterogeneity, spatial distributions in ecology...), and piecewise regression is one way to deal with this phenomenon. Morse-Smale regression offers a way to…
In this article, we primarily propose a novel Bayesian characterization of stationary and nonstationary stochastic processes. In practice, this theory aims to distinguish between global stationarity and nonstationarity for both parametric…
Existing methods for structure discovery in time series data construct interpretable, compositional kernels for Gaussian process regression models. While the learned Gaussian process model provides posterior mean and variance estimates,…
Spatial point pattern data are routinely encountered. A flexible regression model for the underlying intensity is essential to characterizing the spatial point pattern and understanding the impacts of potential risk factors on such pattern.…
In this paper we propose the first non-parametric Bayesian model using Gaussian Processes to make inference on Poisson Point Processes without resorting to gridding the domain or to introducing latent thinning points. Unlike competing…
Bayesian optimization through Gaussian process regression is an effective method of optimizing an unknown function for which every measurement is expensive. It approximates the objective function and then recommends a new measurement point…
The paper considers a Cox process where the stochastic intensity function for the Poisson data model is itself a non-homogeneous Poisson process. We show that it is possible to obtain the marginal data process, namely a non-homogeneous…
Research on Poisson regression analysis for dependent data has been developed rapidly in the last decade. One of difficult problems in a multivariate case is how to construct a cross-correlation structure and at the meantime make sure that…
A validated simulation model primarily requires performing an appropriate input analysis mainly by determining the behavior of real-world processes using probability distributions. In many practical cases, probability distributions of the…
A simple explicit construction is provided of a partition-valued fragmentation process whose distribution on partitions of $[n]=\{1,...,n\}$ at time $\theta \ge 0$ is governed by the Ewens sampling formula with parameter $\theta$. These…
Time series with multiple periodically correlated components is a complex problem with comparatively limited prior research. Most existing time series models are designed to accommodate simple periodically correlated components and tend to…
We present a Bayesian approach to machine learning with probabilistic programs. In our approach, training on available data is implemented as inference on a hierarchical model. The posterior distribution of model parameters is then used to…
Collected data, which is used for analysis or prediction tasks, often have a hierarchical structure, for example, data from various people performing the same task. Modeling the data's structure can improve the reliability of the derived…
We present the first fully variational Bayesian inference scheme for continuous Gaussian-process-modulated Poisson processes. Such point processes are used in a variety of domains, including neuroscience, geo-statistics and astronomy, but…
Gaussian processes are important models in the field of probabilistic numerics. We present a procedure for optimizing Mat\'ern kernel temporal Gaussian processes with respect to the kernel covariance function's hyperparameters. It is based…
The Poisson compound decision problem is a long-standing problem in statistics, where empirical Bayes methodologies are commonly used to estimate Poisson's means in static or batch domains. In this paper, we study the Poisson compound…
In this paper, we introduce a method for segmenting time series data using tools from Bayesian nonparametrics. We consider the task of temporal segmentation of a set of time series data into representative stationary segments. We use…
Stochastic kinetic models are often used to describe complex biological processes. Typically these models are analytically intractable and have unknown parameters which need to be estimated from observed data. Ideally we would have…
The Power Law Process, also known as Non-Homogeneous Poisson Process, has been used in various aspects, one of which is the software reliability assessment. Specifically, by using its intensity function to compute the rate of change of a…
The Poisson process is the most elementary continuous-time stochastic process that models a stream of repeating events. It is uniquely characterised by a single parameter called the rate. Instead of a single value for this rate, we here…