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In this paper we address the problem of Monte Carlo approximation of posterior probability distributions in stochastic kinetic models (SKMs). SKMs are multivariate Markov jump processes that model the interactions among species in…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-04-22 Eugenia Koblents , Joaquín Míguez

In online clustering problems, there is often a large amount of uncertainty over possible cluster assignments that cannot be resolved until more data are observed. This difficulty is compounded when clusters follow complex distributions, as…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-04-17 Connie Trojan , Pavel Myshkov , Paul Fearnhead , James Hensman , Tom Minka , Christopher Nemeth

Bayesian inference in deep neural networks is challenging due to the high-dimensional, strongly multi-modal parameter posterior density landscape. Markov chain Monte Carlo approaches asymptotically recover the true posterior but are…

This book aims to provide a graduate-level introduction to advanced topics in Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms, as applied broadly in the Bayesian computational context. Most, if not all of these topics (stochastic gradient MCMC,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-07-18 Paul Fearnhead , Christopher Nemeth , Chris J. Oates , Chris Sherlock

Estimating model parameters of a general family of cure models is always a challenging task mainly due to flatness and multimodality of the likelihood function. In this work, we propose a fully Bayesian approach in order to overcome these…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-08-20 Panagiotis Papastamoulis , Fotios Milienos

In sampling tasks, it is common for target distributions to be known up to a normalizing constant. However, in many situations, even evaluating the unnormalized distribution can be costly or infeasible. This issue arises in scenarios such…

Computation · Statistics 2025-02-06 Wei Yuan , Guanyang Wang

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are widely used to sample from complicated distributions, especially to sample from the posterior distribution in Bayesian inference. However, MCMC is not directly applicable when facing the doubly…

Computation · Statistics 2019-03-29 Guanyang Wang

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are often used in clustering since they guarantee asymptotically exact expectations in the infinite-time limit. In finite time, though, slow mixing often leads to poor performance. Modern computing…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-02-24 Tin D. Nguyen , Brian L. Trippe , Tamara Broderick

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is a well-established family of Monte Carlo methods for performing approximate Bayesian inference in the case where an ``implicit'' model is used for the data: when the data model can be simulated, but…

Computation · Statistics 2022-11-07 Ivis Kerama , Thomas Thorne , Richard G. Everitt

We propose a Bayesian nonparametric approach to the problem of jointly modeling multiple related time series. Our model discovers a latent set of dynamical behaviors shared among the sequences, and segments each time series into regions…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-11-14 Emily B. Fox , Michael C. Hughes , Erik B. Sudderth , Michael I. Jordan

Testing between hypotheses, when independent sampling is possible, is a well developed subject. In this paper, we propose hypothesis tests that are applicable when the samples are obtained using Markov chain Monte Carlo. These tests are…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-08-14 Benjamin M. Gyori , Daniel Paulin

This paper develops a novel sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) approach for joint state and parameter estimation that can deal efficiently with abruptly changing parameters which is a common case when tracking maneuvering targets. The approach…

Computation · Statistics 2015-10-12 Christopher Nemeth , Paul Fearnhead , Lyudmila Mihaylova

We study the problem of multiple hypothesis testing for multidimensional data when inter-correlations are present. The problem of multiple comparisons is common in many applications. When the data is multivariate and correlated, existing…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-06-02 Mahdis Azadbakhsh , Xin Gao , Hanna Jankowski

Performing Bayesian inference via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) can be exceedingly expensive when posterior evaluations invoke the evaluation of a computationally expensive model, such as a system of partial differential equations. In…

Computation · Statistics 2017-12-27 Patrick Conrad , Andrew Davis , Youssef Marzouk , Natesh Pillai , Aaron Smith

Sequential Monte Carlo methods, also known as particle methods, are a popular set of techniques for approximating high-dimensional probability distributions and their normalizing constants. These methods have found numerous applications in…

Computation · Statistics 2021-06-23 Jeremy Heng , Adrian N. Bishop , George Deligiannidis , Arnaud Doucet

Let $\mathscr{P}(E)$ be the space of probability measures on a measurable space $(E,\mathcal{E})$. In this paper we introduce a class of nonlinear Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods for simulating from a probability measure…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2011-07-18 Christophe Andrieu , Ajay Jasra , Arnaud Doucet , Pierre Del Moral

Communication costs, resulting from synchronization requirements during learning, can greatly slow down many parallel machine learning algorithms. In this paper, we present a parallel Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm in which…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2014-03-24 Willie Neiswanger , Chong Wang , Eric Xing

Sequential optimization methods are often confronted with the curse of dimensionality in high-dimensional spaces. Current approaches under the Gaussian process framework are still burdened by the computational complexity of tracking…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-08 Zeji Yi , Yunyue Wei , Chu Xin Cheng , Kaibo He , Yanan Sui

Monte Carlo methods, such as Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), remain the most regularly-used approach for implementing Bayesian inference. However, the computational cost of these approaches usually scales worse than linearly with the…

Computation · Statistics 2024-11-12 Leonardo Ripoli , Richard G. Everitt

Efficient sampling of many-dimensional and multimodal density functions is a task of great interest in many research fields. We describe an algorithm that allows parallelizing inherently serial Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling by…

Computation · Statistics 2020-08-10 Vasyl Hafych , Philipp Eller , Oliver Schulz , Allen Caldwell