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Capturing the uncertainty in probabilistic wind power forecasts is challenging, especially when uncertain input variables, such as the weather, play a role. Since ensemble weather predictions aim to capture the uncertainty in the weather…

Applications · Statistics 2022-04-26 Kaleb Phipps , Sebastian Lerch , Maria Andersson , Ralf Mikut , Veit Hagenmeyer , Nicole Ludwig

Probabilistic forecasts of wind speed are important for a wide range of applications, ranging from operational decision making in connection with wind power generation to storm warnings, ship routing and aviation. We present a statistical…

Applications · Statistics 2016-08-06 Michael Scheuerer , David Möller

Renewable energy sources provide a constantly increasing contribution to the total energy production worldwide. However, the power generation from these sources is highly variable due to their dependence on meteorological conditions.…

Applications · Statistics 2019-03-05 Thordis Thorarinsdottir , Anders Løland , Alex Lenkoski

In recent years, probabilistic forecasts techniques were proposed in research as well as in applications to integrate volatile renewable energy resources into the electrical grid. These techniques allow decision makers to take the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-10-30 Jens Schreiber , Bernhard Sick

Owing to its minimal pollution and efficient energy use, wind energy has become one of the most widely exploited renewable energy resources. The successful integration of wind power into the grid system is contingent upon accurate wind…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-09-02 Ephrem Admasu Yekun , Alem H. Fitwib , Selvi Karpaga Subramaniand , Anubhav Kumard , Teshome Goa Tella

In this paper, the highly acknowledged advantages of the Model Predictive Control (MPC) approach are utilized to regulate the wind turbines' output power in the partial load region. In this region, the purpose of the designed controller is…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2019-11-11 Kamyar Ghanbarpour , Farhad Bayat , Abolfazl Jalilvand

Wind energy is becoming an increasingly crucial component of a sustainable grid, but its inherent variability and limited predictability present challenges for grid operators. The energy sector needs novel forecasting techniques that can…

Applications · Statistics 2023-12-05 Zheng Dong , Hanyu Zhang , Shixiang Zhu , Yao Xie , Pascal Van Hentenryck

Precisely forecasting wind speed is essential for wind power producers and grid operators. However, this task is challenging due to the stochasticity of wind speed. To accurately predict short-term wind speed under uncertainties, this paper…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-11-27 Sisheng Liang , Long Nguyen , Fang Jin

Ensemble forecasts and their combination are examined from the perspective of probability spaces. Manipulating ensemble forecasts as discrete probability distributions, multi-model ensemble (MME) forecasts are reformulated as barycenters of…

Applications · Statistics 2025-03-24 Camille Le Coz , Alexis Tantet , Rémi Flamary , Riwal Plougonven

Despite the increasing importance of forecasts of renewable energy, current planning studies only address a general estimate of the forecast quality to be expected and selected forecast horizons. However, these estimates allow only a…

Applications · Statistics 2019-06-03 Jens Schreiber , Artjom Buschin , Bernhard Sick

The growing penetration of intermittent, renewable generation in US power grids, especially wind and solar generation, results in increased operational uncertainty. In that context, accurate forecasts are critical, especially for wind…

The extensive penetration of wind farms (WFs) presents challenges to the operation of distribution networks (DNs). Building a probability distribution of the aggregated wind power forecast error is of great value for decision making.…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2018-12-19 Mengshuo Jia , Chen Shen , Zhiwen Wang

With increasing concerns of climate change, renewable resources such as photovoltaic (PV) have gained popularity as a means of energy generation. The smooth integration of such resources in power system operations is enabled by accurate…

Applications · Statistics 2021-03-30 Fatemeh Najibi , Dimitra Apostolopoulou , Eduardo Alonso

We present a chance-constrained model predictive control (MPC) framework under Gaussian mixture model (GMM) uncertainty. Specifically, we consider the uncertainty that arises from predicting future behaviors of moving obstacles, which may…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-07-21 Kai Ren , Colin Chen , Hyeontae Sung , Heejin Ahn , Ian Mitchell , Maryam Kamgarpour

Because of the global need to increase power production from renewable energy resources, developments in the online monitoring of the associated infrastructure is of interest to reduce operation and maintenance costs. However, challenges…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-29 Simon M. Brealy , Lawrence A. Bull , Pauline Beltrando , Anders Sommer , Nikolaos Dervilis , Keith Worden

Model predictive control (MPC) has become the most widely used advanced control method in process industry. In many cases, forecasts of the disturbances are available, e.g., predicted renewable power generation based on weather forecast.…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-06-08 Ryan McCloy , Lai Wei , Jie Bao

Predicting the demand for electricity with uncertainty helps in planning and operation of the grid to provide reliable supply of power to the consumers. Machine learning (ML)-based demand forecasting approaches can be categorized into (1)…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-15 Yiwei Fu , Nurali Virani , Honggang Wang

Accurate probabilistic prediction of wind power is crucial for maintaining grid stability and facilitating the efficient integration of renewable energy sources. Gaussian process (GP) models offer a principled framework for quantifying…

Applications · Statistics 2025-11-11 Domniki Ladopoulou , Dat Minh Hong , Petros Dellaportas

In the wind energy industry, it is of great importance to develop models that accurately forecast the power output of a wind turbine, as such predictions are used for wind farm location assessment or power pricing and bidding, monitoring,…

Applications · Statistics 2022-07-13 Sándor Kolumbán , Stella Kapodistria , Nazanin Nooraee

Wind power is playing an increasingly important role in electricity markets. However, it's inherent variability and uncertainty cause operational challenges and costs as more operating reserves are needed to maintain system reliability.…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2016-03-01 Yishen Wang , Zhi Zhou , Cong Liu , Audun Botterud