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Uncertainty quantification (UQ) includes the characterization, integration, and propagation of uncertainties that result from stochastic variations and a lack of knowledge or data in the natural world. Monte Carlo (MC) method is a…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-11-03 Jiaxin Zhang

In the context of Monte Carlo (MC) simulation of particle transport Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) addresses the issue of predicting non statistical errors affecting the physical results, i.e. errors deriving mainly from uncertainties in…

Computational Physics · Physics 2015-06-18 Paolo Saracco , Maria Grazia Pia

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) techniques are frequently used to ascertain output variability in systems with parametric uncertainty. Traditional algorithms for UQ are either system-agnostic and slow (such as Monte Carlo) or fast with…

Computation · Statistics 2015-03-19 Tuhin Sahai , Jose Miguel Pasini

Most uncertainty quantification (UQ) approaches provide a single scalar value as a measure of model reliability. However, different uncertainty measures could provide complementary information on the prediction confidence. Even measures…

We present an analysis of multilevel Monte Carlo techniques for the forward problem of uncertainty quantification for the radiative transport equation, when the coefficients ({\em cross-sections}) are heterogenous random fields. To do this,…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2020-01-15 Ivan G. Graham , Matthew J. Parkinson , Robert Scheichl

Efficient uncertainty quantification algorithms are key to understand the propagation of uncertainty -- from uncertain input parameters to uncertain output quantities -- in high resolution mathematical models of brain physiology. Advanced…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2023-01-10 Matteo Croci , Vegard Vinje , Marie E. Rognes

We introduce a novel Multi-Order Monte Carlo approach for uncertainty quantification in the context of multiscale time-dependent partial differential equations. The new framework leverages Implicit-Explicit Runge-Kutta time integrators to…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2026-04-08 Giulia Bertaglia , Walter Boscheri , Lorenzo Pareschi

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is an active area of research, and an essential technique used in all fields of science and engineering. The most common methods for UQ are Monte Carlo and surrogate-modelling. The former method is…

Computation · Statistics 2023-09-01 Arnau Albà , Romana Boiger , Dimitri Rochman , Andreas Adelmann

We present a hybrid method for time-dependent particle transport that combines Monte Carlo (MC) estimation with a deterministic discrete ordinates (\(S_N\)) solve, augmented by quasi-Monte Carlo (QMC) sampling. For spatial discretizations,…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-11-24 Johannes Krotz , Ryan G. McClarren

The Monte Carlo (MC) method is the most common technique used for uncertainty quantification, due to its simplicity and good statistical results. However, its computational cost is extremely high, and, in many cases, prohibitive.…

Computation · Statistics 2021-05-21 A. Cunha , R. Nasser , R. Sampaio , H. Lopes , K. Breitman

The Multilevel Monte Carlo method is an efficient variance reduction technique. It uses a sequence of coarse approximations to reduce the computational cost in uncertainty quantification applications. The method is nowadays often considered…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2018-06-15 Pieterjan Robbe , Dirk Nuyens , Stefan Vandewalle

The Iterative Quasi-Monte Carlo method, or iQMC, replaces standard quadrature techniques used in deterministic linear solvers with Quasi-Monte Carlo simulation for more accurate and efficient solutions to the neutron transport equation.…

Computational Physics · Physics 2023-06-21 Samuel Pasmann , Ilham Variansyah , C. T. Kelley , Ryan G. McClarren

We present a hybrid method for time-dependent particle transport problems that combines Monte Carlo (MC) estimation with deterministic solutions based on discrete ordinates. For spatial discretizations, the MC algorithm computes a piecewise…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2023-12-08 Johannes Krotz , Cory D. Hauck , Ryan G. McClarren

Deploying deep learning models in safety-critical applications remains a very challenging task, mandating the provision of assurances for the dependable operation of these models. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods estimate the model's…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-23 Daniel Bethell , Simos Gerasimou , Radu Calinescu

In this work we investigate replacing standard quadrature techniques used in deterministic linear solvers with a fixed-seed Quasi-Monte Carlo calculation to obtain more accurate and efficient solutions to the neutron transport equation…

Computational Physics · Physics 2022-09-07 Sam Pasmann , Ilham Variansyah , C. T. Kelley , Ryan McClarren

We present in this paper a hybrid, Multi-Level Monte Carlo (MLMC) method for solving the neutral particle transport equation. MLMC methods, originally developed to solve parametric integration problems, work by using a cheap, low fidelity…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-08-06 Vincent N. Novellino , Dmitriy Y. Anistratov

Neutrinos have an unique quantum feature as flavor conversions. Recent studies suggested that collective neutrino oscillations play important roles in high-energy astrophysical phenomena. Quantum kinetic equation (QKE) is capable of…

High Energy Astrophysical Phenomena · Physics 2021-12-15 Chinami Kato , Hiroki Nagakura , Taiki Morinaga

Fast and accurate predictions of uncertainties in the computed dose are crucial for the determination of robust treatment plans in radiation therapy. This requires the solution of particle transport problems with uncertain parameters or…

Medical Physics · Physics 2022-11-09 Pia Stammer , Lucas Burigo , Oliver Jäkel , Martin Frank , Niklas Wahl

The quasi-random discrete ordinates method (QRDOM) is here proposed for the approximation of transport problems. Its central idea is to explore a quasi Monte Carlo integration within the classical source iteration technique. It preserves…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2023-07-19 Pedro H. A. Konzen , Leonardo F. Guidi , Thomas Richter

This paper presents multilevel hybrid transport (MLHT) methods for solving the neutral-particle Boltzmann transport equation. The proposed MLHT methods are formulated on a sequence of spatial grids using a multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC)…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2026-05-12 Vincent N. Novellino , Dmitriy Y. Anistratov
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