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A new approximate Bayesian inferential framework is proposed that exploits multiple information sources -- daily spot returns, high-frequency spot data and option prices -- and enables fast calculation of probabilistic predictions of future…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2026-05-08 Worapree Maneesoonthorn , David T. Frazier , Gael M. Martin

In this paper we study the pricing of exchange options when underlying assets have stochastic volatility and stochastic correlation. An approximation using a closed-form approximation based on a Taylor expansion of the conditional price is…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2020-01-14 Enrique Villamor , Pablo Olivares

In this paper, we investigate a portfolio investment problem under volatility uncertainty and short-sale constraints market via sublinear expectation which is used to model volatility uncertainty. We assume the stocks admit volatility…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2026-05-05 Jing He , Shuzhen Yang

We consider the problem of valuation of American options written on dividend-paying assets whose price dynamics follows a multidimensional exponential Levy model. We carefully examine the relation between the option prices, related partial…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-09-20 Tomasz Klimsiak , Andrzej Rozkosz

In this paper, we introduce a new time series model having a stochastic exponential tail. This model is constructed based on the Normal Tempered Stable distribution with a time-varying parameter. The model captures the stochastic…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2023-03-23 Young Shin Kim , Kum-Hwan Roh , Raphael Douady

In this paper, we study the portfolio optimization problem with general utility functions and when the return and volatility of underlying asset are slowly varying. An asymptotic optimal strategy is provided within a specific class of…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2016-11-08 Jean-Pierre Fouque , Ruimeng Hu

We develop a stochastic volatility framework for modeling multiple currencies based on CBI-time-changed L\'evy processes. The proposed framework captures the typical risk characteristics of FX markets and is coherent with the symmetries of…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2024-06-11 Claudio Fontana , Alessandro Gnoatto , Guillaume Szulda

The SAVVY project aims to improve the analyses of adverse events (AEs) in clinical trials through the use of survival techniques appropriately dealing with varying follow-up times and competing events (CEs). This paper summarizes key…

Applications · Statistics 2024-02-28 Kaspar Rufibach , Jan Beyersmann , Tim Friede , Claudia Schmoor , Regina Stegherr

This paper analyses the implementation and calibration of the Heston Stochastic Volatility Model. We first explain how characteristic functions can be used to estimate option prices. Then we consider the implementation of the Heston model,…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2015-03-18 Ricardo Crisostomo

In the following paper we provide a review and development of sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods for option pricing. SMC are a class of Monte Carlo-based algorithms, that are designed to approximate expectations w.r.t a sequence of…

Computation · Statistics 2010-05-27 Ajay Jasra , Pierre Del Moral

A third-order approximation for close-to-the-money European option prices under an infinite-variation CGMY L\'{e}vy model is derived, and is then extended to a model with an additional independent Brownian component. The asymptotic regime…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2017-11-23 José E. Figueroa-López , Ruoting Gong , Christian Houdré

We give an analytical characterization of the price function of an American option in Heston-type models. Our approach is based on variational inequalities and extends recent results of Daskalopoulos and Feehan (2011). We study the…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-12-12 Damien Lamberton , Giulia Terenzi

We introduce a new class of local volatility models. Within this framework, we obtain expressions for both (i) the price of any European option and (ii) the induced implied volatility smile. As an illustration of our framework, we perform…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2012-11-12 Matthew Lorig

In this paper we consider the following optimal stopping problem $$V^{\omega}_{\rm A}(s) = \sup_{\tau\in\mathcal{T}} \mathbb{E}_{s}[e^{-\int_0^\tau \omega(S_w) dw} g(S_\tau)],$$ where the process $S_t$ is a jump-diffusion process,…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2021-01-07 Jonas Al-Hadad , Zbigniew Palmowski

This paper sets out to provide a general framework for the pricing of average-type options via lower and upper bounds. This class of options includes Asian, basket and options on the volume-weighted average price. We demonstrate that in…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2016-12-30 Alexander Novikov , Scott Alexander , Nino Kordzakhia , Timothy Ling

Cross-validation (CV) is a popular approach for assessing and selecting predictive models. However, when the number of folds is large, CV suffers from a need to repeatedly refit a learning procedure on a large number of training datasets.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-06-12 Ashia Wilson , Maximilian Kasy , Lester Mackey

We aim to analyze the behaviour of a finite-time stochastic system, whose model is not available, in the context of more rare and harmful outcomes. Standard estimators are not effective in making predictions about such outcomes due to their…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-07-29 Evan Arsenault , Yuheng Wang , Margaret P. Chapman

Options with maturities below one week, hereafter "ultra-short-term" options, have seen a sharp increase in trading activity in recent years. Yet, these instruments are difficult to price jointly using classical pricing models due to the…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2026-04-01 Federico M. Bandi , Nicola Fusari , Guido Gazzani , Roberto Renò

The standard approach to analyzing the asymptotic complexity of probabilistic programs is based on studying the asymptotic growth of certain expected values (such as the expected termination time) for increasing input size. We argue that…

Formal Languages and Automata Theory · Computer Science 2023-07-13 Michal Ajdarów , Antonín Kučera

We consider option pricing using a discrete-time Markov switching stochastic volatility with co-jump model, which can model volatility clustering and varying mean-reversion speeds of volatility. For pricing European options, we develop a…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2020-06-29 Michael C. Fu , Bingqing Li , Rongwen Wu , Tianqi Zhang