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In this paper we address the problem of performing Bayesian inference for the parameters of a nonlinear multi-output model and the covariance matrix of the different output signals. We propose an adaptive importance sampling (AIS) scheme…

Computation · Statistics 2025-01-03 E. Curbelo , L. Martino , F. Llorente , D. Delgado-Gomez

Poisson log-linear models are ubiquitous in many applications, and one of the most popular approaches for parametric count regression. In the Bayesian context, however, there are no sufficient specific computational tools for efficient…

Computation · Statistics 2022-09-02 Laura D'Angelo , Antonio Canale

In engineering, accurately modeling nonlinear dynamic systems from data contaminated by noise is both essential and complex. Established Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods, used for the Bayesian identification of these systems, facilitate…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-04-25 Joe D. Longbottom , Max D. Champneys , Timothy J. Rogers

We consider Bayesian inference by importance sampling when the likelihood is analytically intractable but can be unbiasedly estimated. We refer to this procedure as importance sampling squared (IS2), as we can often estimate the likelihood…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-07-26 Minh-Ngoc Tran , Marcel Scharth , Michael K. Pitt , Robert Kohn

Practitioners of Bayesian statistics have long depended on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to obtain samples from intractable posterior distributions. Unfortunately, MCMC algorithms are typically serial, and do not scale to the large…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-06-11 Maxim Rabinovich , Elaine Angelino , Michael I. Jordan

We present the public release of the Bayesian sampling algorithm for cosmology, CosmoPMC (Cosmology Population Monte Carlo). CosmoPMC explores the parameter space of various cosmological probes, and also provides a robust estimate of the…

The Metropolis algorithm is one of the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods that realize sampling from the target probability distribution. In this paper, we are concerned with the sampling from the distribution in non-identifiable cases…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-06-04 Kenji Nagata , Yoh-ichi Mototake

Adaptive importance sampling is a widely spread Monte Carlo technique that uses a re-weighting strategy to iteratively estimate the so-called target distribution. A major drawback of adaptive importance sampling is the large variance of the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-11-01 Anna Korba , François Portier

Many Bayesian inference problems involve high-dimensional models where the performance of standard importance sampling (IS) methods often degrades rapidly as the dimensionality increases. Classical analyses of IS typically rely on the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-05-29 Fabián González , Víctor Elvira , Joaquín Míguez

An efficient simulation-based methodology is proposed for the rolling window estimation of state space models, called particle rolling Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) with double block sampling. In our method, which is based on Sequential…

Computation · Statistics 2021-09-17 Naoki Awaya , Yasuhiro Omori

We analyze the optimized adaptive importance sampler (OAIS) for performing Monte Carlo integration with general proposals. We leverage a classical result which shows that the bias and the mean-squared error (MSE) of the importance sampling…

Computation · Statistics 2024-01-30 Ömer Deniz Akyildiz

Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) is a powerful method for carrying out Bayesian inference when the likelihood is computationally intractable. However, a drawback of ABC is that it is an approximate method that induces a systematic…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-09-29 Minh Ngoc Tran , Robert Kohn

The quasi-Monte Carlo method is widely used in computational finance, whose efficiency strongly depends on the smoothness and effective dimension of the integrand. In this work, we investigate the combination of importance sampling and the…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2026-03-05 Jiaxin Yu , Xiaoqun Wang

Recent advances in machine learning have led to the development of new methods for enhancing Monte Carlo methods such as Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and importance sampling (IS). One such method is normalizing flows, which use a neural…

Computation · Statistics 2024-01-12 Charly Andral

In conducting non-linear dimensionality reduction and feature learning, it is common to suppose that the data lie near a lower-dimensional manifold. A class of model-based approaches for such problems includes latent variables in an unknown…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-08-20 Deborshee Sen , Theodore Papamarkou , David Dunson

The study further explores randomized QMC (RQMC), which maintains the QMC convergence rate and facilitates computational efficiency analysis. Emphasis is laid on integrating randomly shifted lattice rules, a distinct RQMC quadrature, with…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2023-09-21 Zhan Zheng , Hejin Wang , Xiaoqun Wang

Increased access to computing resources has led to the development of algorithms that can run efficiently on multi-core processing units or in distributed computing environments. In the context of Bayesian inference, many parallel computing…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-11 Daniel Würzler Barreto , Mevin B. Hooten

Adaptive Monte Carlo methods are very efficient techniques designed to tune simulation estimators on-line. In this work, we present an alternative to stochastic approximation to tune the optimal change of measure in the context of…

Probability · Mathematics 2009-10-23 Benjamin Jourdain , Jérôme Lelong

Nonequilibrium sampling is potentially much more versatile than its equilibrium counterpart, but it comes with challenges because the invariant distribution is not typically known when the dynamics breaks detailed balance. Here, we derive a…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2021-10-08 Grant M. Rotskoff , Eric Vanden-Eijnden

State-space models (SSMs) are commonly used to model time series data where the observations depend on an unobserved latent process. However, inference on the model parameters of an SSM can be challenging, especially when the likelihood of…

Computation · Statistics 2023-08-08 Mary Llewellyn , Ruth King , Víctor Elvira , Gordon Ross
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