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This paper concerns numerical assessment of Monte Carlo error in particle filters. We show that by keeping track of certain key features of the genealogical structure arising from resampling operations, it is possible to estimate variances…

Computation · Statistics 2016-06-29 Anthony Lee , Nick Whiteley

For qubits, Monte Carlo estimation of the average fidelity of Clifford unitaries is efficient -- it requires a number of experiments that is independent of the number $n$ of qubits and classical computational resources that scale only…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2014-10-23 Giulia Gualdi , David Licht , Daniel M. Reich , Christiane P. Koch

We review the assumptions on which the Monte Carlo renormalization technique is based, in particular the analyticity of the block spin transformations. On this basis, we select an optimized Kadanoff blocking rule in combination with the…

Condensed Matter · Physics 2016-08-15 H. W. J. Blöte , J. R. Heringa , A. Hoogland , E. W. Meyer , T. S. Smit

We consider the problem of designing efficient particle filters for twisted Feynman--Kac models. Particle filters using twisted models can deliver low error approximations of statistical quantities and such twisting functions can be learnt…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-08-09 Joshua J Bon , Christopher Drovandi , Anthony Lee

The term ``sequential Monte Carlo methods'' or, equivalently, ``particle filters,'' refers to a general class of iterative algorithms that performs Monte Carlo approximations of a given sequence of distributions of interest (\pi_t). We…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Nicolas Chopin

A method for the multifidelity Monte Carlo (MFMC) estimation of statistical quantities is proposed which is applicable to computational budgets of any size. Based on a sequence of optimization problems each with a globally minimizing…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2022-11-15 Anthony Gruber , Max Gunzburger , Lili Ju , Zhu Wang

We describe a number of strategies for minimizing and calculating accurately the statistical uncertainty in quantum Monte Carlo calculations. We investigate the impact of the sampling algorithm on the efficiency of the variational Monte…

Computational Physics · Physics 2012-02-14 R. M. Lee , G. J. Conduit , N. Nemec , P. Lopez Rios , N. D. Drummond

Monte Carlo integration using quantum computers has been widely investigated, including applications to concrete problems. It is known that quantum algorithms based on quantum amplitude estimation (QAE) can compute an integral with a…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2021-05-25 Kazuya Kaneko , Koichi Miyamoto , Naoyuki Takeda , Kazuyoshi Yoshino

We propose and analyze a method for computing failure probabilities of systems modeled as numerical deterministic models (e.g., PDEs) with uncertain input data. A failure occurs when a functional of the solution to the model is below (or…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2016-06-21 Daniel Elfverson , Fredrik Hellman , Axel Målqvist

Large particle systems are often described by high-dimensional (linear) kinetic equations that are simulated using Monte Carlo methods for which the asymptotic convergence rate is independent of the dimensionality. Even though the…

This article considers the sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) approximation of ratios of normalizing constants associated to posterior distributions which in principle rely on continuum models. Therefore, the Monte Carlo estimation error and the…

Computation · Statistics 2016-03-04 Pierre Del Moral , Ajay Jasra , Kody Law , Yan Zhou

Synthesizing realistic images involves computing high-dimensional light-transport integrals. In practice, these integrals are numerically estimated via Monte Carlo integration. The error of this estimation manifests itself as conspicuous…

Graphics · Computer Science 2022-04-06 Vassillen Chizhov , Iliyan Georgiev , Karol Myszkowski , Gurprit Singh

Many machine learning problems involve Monte Carlo gradient estimators. As a prominent example, we focus on Monte Carlo variational inference (MCVI) in this paper. The performance of MCVI crucially depends on the variance of its stochastic…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-07-05 Alexander Buchholz , Florian Wenzel , Stephan Mandt

The objective of Bayesian inference is often to infer, from data, a probability measure for a random variable that can be used as input for Monte Carlo simulation. When datasets for Bayesian inference are small, a principle challenge is…

Computation · Statistics 2018-03-29 Jiaxin Zhang , Michael D. Shields

In latent variable models the parameter estimation can be implemented by using the joint or the marginal likelihood, based on independence or conditional independence assumptions. The same dilemma occurs within the Bayesian framework with…

Computation · Statistics 2014-09-18 Silia Vitoratou , Ioannis Ntzoufras , Irini Moustaki

Bayesian models have become very popular over the last years in several fields such as signal processing, statistics, and machine learning. Bayesian inference requires the approximation of complicated integrals involving posterior…

Computation · Statistics 2021-07-20 Luca Martino , Víctor Elvira

Monte Carlo (MC) dropout is a simple and efficient ensembling method that can improve the accuracy and confidence calibration of high-capacity deep neural network models. However, MC dropout is not as effective as more compute-intensive…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-10 Zhilu Zhang , Vianne R. Gao , Mert R. Sabuncu

Quasi-Monte Carlo methods are a way of improving the efficiency of Monte Carlo methods. Digital nets and sequences are one of the low discrepancy point sets used in quasi-Monte Carlo methods. This thesis presents the three new results…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2022-07-29 Hee Sun Hong

We present a Monte Carlo algorithm that allows the simultaneous determination of a few extremal eigenpairs of a very large matrix without the need to compute the inner product of two vectors or store all the components of any one vector.…

Computational Physics · Physics 2015-05-13 T. E. Booth , J. E. Gubernatis

It is often necessary to make sampling-based statistical inference about many probability distributions in parallel. Given a finite computational resource, this article addresses how to optimally divide sampling effort between the samplers…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-02-18 Nicholas Heard , Melissa Turcotte