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Related papers: On the geometry of Bayesian inference

200 papers

We introduce the concept of conjugate prior models for a given likelihood function in Bayesian spatial inversion. The conjugate class of prior models can be selection extended and still remain conjugate. We demonstrate the generality of…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-12-06 Henning Omre , Kjartan Rimstad

Bayesian inference provides a rigorous framework to encapsulate our knowledge and uncertainty regarding various physical quantities in a well-defined and self-contained manner. Utilising modern tools, such Bayesian models can be constructed…

High Energy Physics - Lattice · Physics 2024-01-02 Julien Frison

We consider joint inversion for two or more unknown parameters from observational data in the Bayesian framework. Standard approaches often either treat the parameters as independent or impose structural similarity through regularisation…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-04 Ruanui Nicholson , Matti Niskanen , Oliver J. Maclaren , Jari P. Kaipio

In this article the issues are discussed with the Bayesian approach, least-square fits, and most-likely fits. Trying to counter these issues, a method, based on weighted confidence, is proposed for estimating probabilities and other…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-01-26 Fetze Pijlman

In recent years, Bayesian inference in large-scale inverse problems found in science, engineering and machine learning has gained significant attention. This paper examines the robustness of the Bayesian approach by analyzing the stability…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-03-06 Alfredo Garbuno-Inigo , Tapio Helin , Franca Hoffmann , Bamdad Hosseini

Nowadays, g-mode detection is based upon a priori theoretical knowledge. By doing so, detection becomes more restricted to what we can imagine. De facto, the universe of possibilities is made narrower. Such an approach is pertinent for…

Astrophysics · Physics 2009-11-13 T. Appourchaux

We propose a geometric framework to assess sensitivity of Bayesian procedures to modeling assumptions based on the nonparametric Fisher-Rao metric. While the framework is general in spirit, the focus of this article is restricted to…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-04-28 Sebastian Kurtek , Karthik Bharath

In this paper, we describe a general method for constructing the posterior distribution of an option price. Our framework takes as inputs the prior distributions of the parameters of the stochastic process followed by the underlying, as…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2008-12-02 Henryk Gzyl , Enrique ter Horst , Samuel Malone

Convergence of the Bayes posterior measure is considered in canonical statistical settings where observations sit on a geometrical object such as a compact manifold, or more generally on a compact metric space verifying some conditions. A…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-06-05 Ismael Castillo , Gerard Kerkyacharian , Dominique Picard

How do we compare between hypotheses that are entirely consistent with observations? The marginal likelihood (aka Bayesian evidence), which represents the probability of generating our observations from a prior, provides a distinctive…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-05-03 Sanae Lotfi , Pavel Izmailov , Gregory Benton , Micah Goldblum , Andrew Gordon Wilson

By providing a framework of accounting for the shared ancestry inherent to all life, phylogenetics is becoming the statistical foundation of biology. The importance of model choice continues to grow as phylogenetic models continue to…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2019-02-05 Jamie R. Oaks , Kerry A. Cobb , Vladimir N. Minin , Adam D. Leaché

Geometry constitutes a core set of intuitions present in all humans, regardless of their language or schooling [1]. Could brain's built in machinery for processing geometric information take part in uncertainty representation? For decades…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2022-09-12 Felix Polyakov

The analysis of the three-dimensional structure of proteins is an important topic in molecular biochemistry. Structure plays a critical role in defining the function of proteins and is more strongly conserved than amino acid sequence over…

Applications · Statistics 2015-01-19 Abel Rodriguez , Scott C. Schmidler

Increasingly large parameter spaces, used to more accurately model precision observables in physics, can paradoxically lead to large deviations in the inferred parameters of interest -- a bias known as volume projection effects -- when…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2025-07-29 Alexander Reeves , Pierre Zhang , Henry Zheng

Bayesian inference is used to estimate continuous parameter values given measured data in many fields of science. The method relies on conditional probability densities to describe information about both data and parameters, yet the notion…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-25 Klaus Mosegaard , Andrew Curtis

We propose a method to improve the efficiency and accuracy of amortized Bayesian inference by leveraging universal symmetries in the joint probabilistic model of parameters and data. In a nutshell, we invert Bayes' theorem and estimate the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-24 Marvin Schmitt , Desi R. Ivanova , Daniel Habermann , Ullrich Köthe , Paul-Christian Bürkner , Stefan T. Radev

We consider a Bayesian hierarchical version of the normal theory general linear model which is practically relevant in the sense that it is general enough to have many applications and it is not straightforward to sample directly from the…

Computation · Statistics 2010-01-22 Alicia A. Johnson , Galin L. Jones

Bayesian estimation is increasingly popular for performing model based inference to support policymaking. These data are often collected from surveys under informative sampling designs where subject inclusion probabilities are designed to…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-07-13 Luis G. Leon-Novelo , Terrance D. Savitsky

We explore the positive geometry of statistical models in the setting of toric varieties. Our focus lies on models for discrete data that are parameterized in terms of Cox coordinates. We develop a geometric theory for computations in…

Algebraic Geometry · Mathematics 2023-03-23 Michael Borinsky , Anna-Laura Sattelberger , Bernd Sturmfels , Simon Telen

We propose a general method to carry out a valid Bayesian analysis of a finite-dimensional `targeted' parameter in the presence of a finite-dimensional nuisance parameter. We apply our methods to causal inference based on estimating…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-03 Magid Sabbagh , David A. Stephens