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Computation plays a major role in decision making. Even if an agent is willing to ascribe a probability to all states and a utility to all outcomes, and maximize expected utility, doing so might present serious computational problems.…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2011-06-15 Joseph Y. Halpern , Rafael Pass

This essay looks at decision-making with interval-valued probability measures. Existing decision methods have either supplemented expected utility methods with additional criteria of optimality, or have attempted to supplement the…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-04-15 Ronald P. Loui

Causal reasoning is a crucial part of science and human intelligence. In order to discover causal relationships from data, we need structure discovery methods. We provide a review of background theory and a survey of methods for structure…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-03-05 Matthew J. Vowels , Necati Cihan Camgoz , Richard Bowden

Despite the obvious advantage of simple life forms capable of fast replication, different levels of cognitive complexity have been achieved by living systems in terms of their potential to cope with environmental uncertainty. Against the…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2017-10-18 Luís F Seoane , Ricard Solé

This paper describes a novel approach to planning which takes advantage of decision theory to greatly improve robustness in an uncertain environment. We present an algorithm which computes conditional plans of maximum expected utility. This…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-02-28 Stephen G. Pimentel , Lawrence M. Brem

We introduce a decision-making framework tailored for the management of systemic risk in networks. This framework is constructed upon three fundamental components: (1) a set of acceptable network configurations, (2) a set of interventions…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2024-10-28 Gregor Svindland , Alexander Voß

Human decisional processes result from the employment of selected quantities of relevant information, generally synthesized from environmental incoming data and stored memories. Their main goal is the production of an appropriate and…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2016-09-08 Graziano Barnabei , Franco Bagnoli , Ciro Conversano , Elena Lensi

AI systems are often used to make or contribute to important decisions in a growing range of applications, including criminal justice, hiring, and medicine. Since these decisions impact human lives, it is important that the AI systems act…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2021-03-16 Duncan C McElfresh , Lok Chan , Kenzie Doyle , Walter Sinnott-Armstrong , Vincent Conitzer , Jana Schaich Borg , John P Dickerson

Decision making in modern stochastic systems, including e-commerce platforms, financial markets and healthcare systems, has evolved into a multifaceted process that combines information acquisition and adaptive information sources. This…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-01-07 Renyuan Xu , Thaleia Zariphopoulou , Luhao Zhang

We live in a world brimming with uncertainty, where we constantly have to make a lot of decisions under incomplete information. We are firm believers that our subjective belief cannot be computed by rigorous mathematical formula; instead…

Physics and Society · Physics 2023-02-08 Lizhi Xin , Kevin Xin , Houwen Xin

People's decisions about how to allocate their limited computational resources are essential to human intelligence. An important component of this metacognitive ability is deciding whether to continue thinking about what to do and move on…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2022-01-04 Ruiqi He , Yash Raj Jain , Falk Lieder

Statistics is sometimes described as the science of reasoning under uncertainty. Statistical models provide one view of this uncertainty, but what is frequently neglected is the 'invisible' portion of uncertainty: that assumed not to exist…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-18 Oliver L. Pescott , Robin J. Boyd , Gary D. Powney , Gavin B. Stewart

Identifying and quantifying factors influencing human decision making remains an outstanding challenge, impacting the performance and predictability of social and technological systems. In many cases, system failures are traced to human…

Decision-making in complex systems often relies on machine learning models, yet highly accurate models such as XGBoost and neural networks can obscure the reasoning behind their predictions. In operations research applications,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-28 Gaurav Arwade , Sigurdur Olafsson

Learning underlies nearly all human behavior and is central to education and education reform. Although recent advances in neuroscience have revealed the fundamental structure of learning processes, these insights have yet to be integrated…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2025-10-20 Scott E. Allen , A. David Redish , René F. Kizilcec

We establish that all strategy-proof social choice rules in strict preference domains follow necessarily a two-step procedure. In the first step, agents are asked to reveal some specific information about their preferences. Afterwards, a…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2023-04-26 Jorge Alcalde-Unzu , Marc Vorsatz

Neural Networks and Decision Trees: two popular techniques for supervised learning that are seemingly disconnected in their formulation and optimization method, have recently been combined in a single construct. The connection pivots on…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-02-27 Giuseppe Nuti , Lluís Antoni Jiménez Rugama , Kaspar Thommen

Decision trees and systems of decision rules are widely used as classifiers, as a means for knowledge representation, and as algorithms. They are among the most interpretable models for data analysis. The study of the relationships between…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-05-04 Kerven Durdymyradov , Mikhail Moshkov

Existing observational approaches for learning human preferences, such as inverse reinforcement learning, usually make strong assumptions about the observability of the human's environment. However, in reality, people make many important…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-10-29 Cassidy Laidlaw , Stuart Russell

This paper studies lying in a novel context. Previous work has focused on situations in which people are either fully aware of the economic consequences of all available actions (e.g., die-under-cup paradigm), or they are uncertain, but…

Physics and Society · Physics 2019-08-05 Hélène Barcelo , Valerio Capraro